Saturday, October 11, 2014

Opened: APT comparing 2009 bird flue to ebola

The "Ebola" Stocks are running. APT makes respirators so its running on massive volume over 2X the entire float, which is a sign that there is some staying power to the move.

My entry 6.58  and partial exit  and then exit of half the position into the close at 7.35.  A great trade as I had enough size to make this trade worth my while realized a 1R gain.  I remind myself, don't get greedy and book some profits. I've still kept half the position.

I initially dismissed APT as a "pop and drop" type of stock, but upon more research I looked into past  earnings and revenue history.  During the 2009 bird flu outbreak revenues and earnings exploded:

And record earnings result:

As would be expected, this was reflected in the stock price, which made a multi-monthy move from 2..25 peaking at over 7.  However, during this time the trading volume that we've seen in APT over the last two days.
Bird flu never reached U.S. soils, ebola now has.  I think its reasonable to conclude that APT will have the type of earnings and revenue growth that it had had in 2009.  Something in the range of $80 Million for the 12 months q3,'14 to q3 '15 is not out of the question.

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