Monday, June 11, 2012

USO: Stop Gapped.

My stop on Friday, got jumped premarket so I took the hit.  Went down $264, which was more than I had hoped to risk but less than my allowance.    This type of thing happens when you try to pick a bottom.  And, If your stopped out, it's usually a good thing.  I would have gotten killed had I attempted to ride it out:





MEA: closed

This one went horribly wrong.  Broke about every rule.  No stop, no trend.  Didn't take the profit on the rally back to three.    I attempted to pick a bottom, without a net (I.e. Stop) on 2k shares.  Dropped a grand in all  (More than my allowance).


Thursday, June 7, 2012

New Trade: EURO

Shorting the EURO on 20k here at 12533:  The EURO made a 300 pip rally off a low, but The last bar is a fade.  I have a stop above the day's high.   And I've been drinking a 7.1% alcohol content beer, so That may explain some things.  BTW "Fat Weasel" tastes better after 1.

Closed: the following morning at 1.24584 for  $150.  Lesson: even putting on a trade after two beers can work if you are trading in the general direction of the trend with a stop in place.   This was better analysis than some stone cold sober analysis.

New trade: V

Visa looks quite a bit like discover.  But looks like it is more of the primary mover.

V rallied and then sold off.  I had an order to short yesterday, that didn't get filled.  Any way I took it out at 117.02 on 100 today as it began to fade. I have a stop at 121.  This looks like a toppy pattern and if it is this could be at least a 10 point move, within the next few weeks.

DAY 2:
I was perhaps a day early, but my stop held.  This is starting to look nice as V was faded after a strong initial move:
 The key point is what it does around 112.5.

DFS It doesn't pay to discover.

Markets rallied on a China Interest rate cut.  Stopped out on DFS for .90 loss.  I think the stop was probably too tight.


My profit stop in FB got hit so I took a .20 profit.  ( sort of a stupid and pointless trade)

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

NEW positions.

The markets rallied hard today off of news that Europe may attempt some type of bailout.  I'm not buying the butter flys and rainbow.   I used the rally to take a number of positions.


I had previously had been long DFS but got stopped out after the breakout failed.  Failed breakouts usually make great shorts and so i went short after today's rally.  I got filled on 100 shares.  I had some additional orders incase the rally went higher but I didn't get filled.  So I'll use this as a test position.

FB had a big rally this afternoon  after languishing most of the morning.   I have a position for a small move. Short 100 at 26.88
 ON MAKO I went long.  as it looks like it put in a bottom after a major gap.   Its traded higher but still close to the lows which makes a nice place to put a stop and a decent risk to reward trade.  Long 250 at 22.97
 I also went long Oil via the USO ETF.  Similar to Mako there appears to be a rally off a bottom, which  allows a tight stop.  USO has been prone to "V" shape recovers so here's hopping.


NKE: Closed +$1.48

I was stopped out of NKE at 107 today.   It went for a 1.48 gain, which is ok but I gave back 3 points of profit.  

I have mixed feelings on this one,  Getting out with some profit is the right decision and the market is attempting to rally.  I still feel this has a much bigger move down so I probably was right in attempting to give this some room.

Between this and WHR (both "winners"), I left a lot of money on the table.  My sell strategy needs work.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

WHR: swing trade

I traded a decent swing on WHR over the last day.  I bought at 56.78 off the bounce with a stop on the day's low.  I got a nice move today and move my stop up to 57.90, which got hit on an intraday pull back.  It's a shame because had I not been so aggressive on moving my stop up I could have captured  some more upside.    In all I made about  $1.10 on the trade on 200 shares.



Saturday, June 2, 2012

NKE: update

The NKE short appears to be working quite well.   There was an attempted test of resistance, which rallied to 110.92 and then a hard fall with the broader market.   NKE closed near the low on friday and took out some mild support at 106 in the process.  Last month's low held, however, if the market continues to sell off there is not a lot of support at NKE.

"Ask SLM" on Tasty Trade put up an interesting chart for NKE, which uses cycle patterns. I personally have not used cycle patterns before but I've attempted to replicate the process.   In theory, in an up trending stock the line should mark the weekly low.   On NKE the first 3 lines did mark the low to the week.  However, the last line low was breached, which as SLM explained it means that the cycles now apply to the down trend.  If the current pattern holds the downtrend should last 12 weeks.

At this point, the indicator is still too new for me to hold my breath but, It conforms with my analysis that NKE had topped, ( as evident by the failed breakout),  I wanted to be short on the next attempt because the moves is done.