Monday, March 30, 2015

Closed TWTR, Opened LBIO, ZIOP, INUV,

My TWTR trade did not last long as I got stopped out today filled at 49.10, which was the b.o. point.  I took a 1% hit on the trade which is fine other than I haven't had the big winners that cancels out my losers this month. 

I think a lot of the difficulty that I (and others) have had this month is that the breakout trade has gotten choppy.  In the right environment, TWTR breaks out and doesn't look back. But many breakouts this month fade and retest the breaking point.   

To overcome this problem, my recent adjustment has been to buy the power stocks off a bounce at the 10Week average. 



SLINGSHOTS:
Here's a the new setup.

 I'm looking for a weekly / monthly RSI to stretch against a pull back on the daily to the magic line.   ZIOP  had oversold stochastic on the daily and pulled back to the magic line.


ZIOP:
ZIOP bounced off the 10 Week Avg. last week.  Not that the market is giving it an "all clear"  It gapped up and faded.  I bought post-fade 11.68.




LBIO:
Nice bounce off the 10 week.  Entry $11.09

INUV:

Just a good ole; breakout off a  Fishhook set up,
Entry $2.03


Sunday, March 29, 2015

TWTR, RAD, MVIS Opened

I had one of those weeks where I had to put in 16 hour days at the office without access  to quotes  and was left at the mercy of my stop loss orders.  A number my stops were hit and positions exited.

But before discussing the positions closed, here's the ones I opened:

TWTR:  TWTR put in a nice weekly breakout, although it pulled back the day after in held the 49.12 B/o point.   I caught this one high so my position size is reduced.

Entry: 51.79
Stop: 49.12


MVIS
After catching a powerful move. Entry 2.92 -- Exit 3.88.  I'm back for more.  The move on Thursday has a bottoming look to it after it rallied off the lows.  I'm looking for a dip buy here 3.58 with some consolidate to 3.80-$4.00, which will set the table for a move on the weekly

On a weekly I liked the action after the power move.
RAD:
After bouncing off the 10 RAD hit a new weekly closing breakout on some volume.
Entry: 8.65

Monday, March 23, 2015

March 23, 2015 Trades

Although the weekly breakout looked good, it was not to be. Boot looked good in the a.m. rally up to 25.95, but then reversed.  I took a stop at 24.75 as the breakout point fails.  

This was a good loss.  I gave the breakout a chance and when it failed, I knew exactly where my exit would be.

Entry: 25.47 
Exit: 24.75  -2.8% (- .4% portfolio)


RMGN:
This  one got gapped against me,  but fortunately my position size was pretty small. To the point where I could wait for the bounce.  I did have a stop at 1.39, low on the move 1.40. as it bounced to day, I sold it out as I no longer have any interest in the setup. --its a complete mess on the daily, but apparent that something is going on as some volume has come in.

On a weekly,  and my reason for taking the trade was the RSI and MACD settings were hitting multi year highs.  This could setup as a rest week, and next week would be the first time a breakout trade could be attempted

Entry: 2.04
Exit: 1.56   Looks bad in % for the trade but due to the trade size only a -.45% portfolio loss.

Opened REPH:
This is one that I caught a big move last week.  IMO, REPH has now setup again and could make a similar move. There were 3 days in a row where it rejected move to break it down.  Today, it gapped down but closed up from the gap.  After it was apparent that it would not immediately breakdown, I took a position at $8.51

Mental Stop @8.10  This one is too thin to put a hard stop.  (I know from the last run where mine got taken out at a LOD)



Bigger picture, ATH  weekly RSI and MACD.



Sunday, March 22, 2015

March 20 Trades:

Over the past week, I'be been trying out some a RSI filters for my momentum trades.  Since I was in the experimental phase for my setups, I wanted to take a lot of trades to provide feed back as to what was working and what was not.  For that reason, I also cut my position size to at least a 1/3 of my normal size.   The feedback I gained from this little test has convinced me in the merit of this approach. 

LBIO:
After an encouraging breakout on Thursday, Friday saw a gap up and rejection.  After seeing this would gap up, I strongly suspected that this would not move higher so I moved my stop up to Slightly below the close on Thursday.   That stop was hit. All things considered .53 Gain +3.8% on a failed breakout is not bad.

Opened: 13.80
Closed: 14.33


AXN:This one looked promising on a weekly Time frame but that move failed and I got stopped out.
his was a trade to attempt to zero in on the interplay between my time frames.  Had I taken the daily move, I likely would have closed this out for a small profit as it had run to a high of $2.29 or nearly 15% from my buy point.   I Should have sold the gap on a daily.  Did I mention I hate continuation gaps in my favor?   They almost always put in a ceiling for a stock .


Entry: 1.99
Exit: 1.76.

ARQL: I closed this one as I realized that it did not fit my time frame.  Simply having monthly  and weekly power did not coincide with a good daily setup. After realizing I was in "no man's land" I realized there was no reason for me to be in this position so I closed it.

Entry: $2.22
Exit:  $2.35  +.13  +5.9%

CRMD:
I got stopped out as CRMD finally gave way to the 10 Day EMA.

Entry: 7.97
Exit: 7.71

Summary
This one deserves some extra discussion as I made a mistake in  mixing my time frames.  I used the daily entry and executed the entry very well. 7.97 within 2 days CRMD had traded up to 8.90.  But rather than take the gains, I was counting on the weekly/monthly strength to push this one higher.   As shown in the second chart the weekly breakout was not ready.  Thus, I should have used daily signals for an exit.



Although CRMD has shown tremendous weekly power, which allowed the pull back entry to work at support this was not ready to breakout.   This was only week 2.  For a Weekly fishhook to work its 1-2-3- GO!.   Since the weekly was not ready, the exit should have been determined on a daily chart.   
Although I took a loss on this trade, it was an "experiment trade" so the loss was small.   I think the lesson that I learned here  will be well worth it. 
 

Thursday, March 19, 2015

March 19 trade journal

Bought LBIO 13.80 as it fishhooks.

Target 3 day run.


BOOT:
25.47
target 30 

MTSI:
Great weekly breakout.

Closed:

REPH:
Bought from 6.40
Sold  7.42  The mm's tagged me during a low volume period.  So I'm out but I can live with the 1.02 in 3 days. 

DFS
This hasn't quite broke down. But my options are going to start getting the theta decay kicking in.   I thought it would be better to take the small profit and avoid the decay. 

Entry .75
Exit .85


PTCT.
Breakout fails.  stopped out at 70.05
Shit
MVIS:
Took a huge run on this
2.92. 3.88 in three days.  I'm going to take the gains and  wait for this to set up again .

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

March 18, No changes today.

I didn't add today as I want to see how my positions weather pull backs.  So far, mostly good, nothing was stopped out and MVIS absolutely ran. 

MVIS:
Breaks to Mult-year highs today with an RSI and MACD highs as well.   The prior resistance should act as support-- enabling me to move my stops up to the 3.30-3.40 range. 


CRMD:
A bit of a pull back today but still above my buy point of 7.98.  The magic line continues to hold. 


Bigger picture looking like a 2 week rest similar to early feb. Very health as long as the range holds.


REPH:
I expected a pull back after being up 30% + in 2 days.  That said. This bounced off its lows very nicely.  Perhaps a fishhook into the week in? As long as it holds the EMA 7 this move is still very much enact.
DFS:
My short position:
DFS bounced off of its lows which looked like it was ready to completely break down.  IS this a pivot or a 1 day event.  I'm not sure. 

CYTX:
Bit of a pull back on the daily.   But stop at 1.10 still holds


Weekly range continues to tighten, when (or if) this breaks should store up some power. 

VLRS:
Held range, nothing otherwise notable.
GOGO:
Inside day following breakout, nothing notable.
AXN:
Pushed initially in the AM which was sold. Although it pulled back the breakout point(and my stop) held. One step forward .75 back has been the recent history on this move so nothing surprising. 

RMGN,
This one ran in to selling but volume was relatively light compared to the bullish days.  Hopefully there's some buying as my stop holds by just a bit. 
ARQL:
Yesterday had  a big move.  I was encouraged as this bounced pretty well off its lows and closed pretty close to the open.  Could be set up to run into the end of the week as the bear's initial attempt failed to kill off the rally was rejected.
PTCT:
This the one that surprised me the most as yesterdays breakout was completely rejected in a convincing manner.  I took a small position as I'm playing the weekly move giving me a wide stop--My stop is at 70 -- so I'm hoping this was just a one day- late selling and we'll get a bounce back but if not it's time to get out. 
ZAGG:
Goes in the nothing to see here category. Would have liked to see more follow-through. 



Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Opened VLRS, GOGO, AXN, RMGN, ZAGG, ARQL, PTCT

I got a lot of alert signals today and I took a lot of them. I fully acknowledge, I do not know what any of these companies actually do, nor do I care.  They meet my setup requirements.  The market tells me that they are good and the market is correct.


VLRS:
Weekly heads over 70 on the RSI but I bought at 11.98 so I'm down a bit. That said, if this can hold I believe this has a shot for all time highs.

Entry: 11.98
Stop 11.00


GOGO
Weekly breakout after a week rest, clears resistance at 20.
Bought the 20 may  calls, 1.95.


AXN:
Nice weekly fishhook breaks above the momo line after a false start this surged ahead. This is showing that there is some power behind this move and I want to be in.
Entry: 2.00

RMGN:
Weekly B.o on the RSI.  I took this trade even though the RSI is not over 70. B/o had its moments but not as strong as others... Wait and see. This once was a $22 stock
Entry: 2.04


ZAGG:
Daily breaks range here

Weekly showing pure power.
Entry: $9.08
ARQL:
Breakout after back test of the b/o.  This one is showing signs of some power.

PTCT:
This is the one that I was hoping would give me the signal and to day it did. Weekly fishhook  range
Daily shows this move is range expansion.  It's time to run.
Entry: $76.66

Monday, March 16, 2015

Opened MVIS, REPH, CYTX, CRMD, Closed AGIO

After spending the weekend focusing on refining my Big Gain Hunting scan, I've come to realize the importance of a new high on the RSI as it confirms the power behind a stock.  Knowing that a stock has more momentum behind that any time in the last 3 years makes it easier to buy when it looks like it is coming in. 

MVIS was my first target this morning.  I could see this was going to gap up. But I waited until the open it faded quick in the morning I bought at 2.92.  



Buying the fade this morning was easier that I knew MVIS was showing more RSI power than at any time in the last 3 years!  That's significant as it suggests the character of this stock is changing.  So while I could have banged this out as swing trade.  The weekly shows that there could be a lot more here. 

Entry: $2.92


REPH:
On REPH there was a nice Fishhook Breakout.  I wasn't sold on this early as there bid seemed flimsy at 6.10 and under 6.00 the pattern would fail.  But when the bid firmed up to 6.33 I hit the ask at 6.40.--and I am glad that I did as it ran and closed up a $1 from my buy point

Entry: 6.40



Why did I buy what looked like a flimsy breakout?  The weekly tells everything. RSI all time high on the breakout told me there was something more here so despite not having volume confirm and a timid breakout I went for it.  The last hour it really went.


CRMD:
CRMD has  one of the highest momentum in the entire market.  Today it pulled back and I found my Low Risk Entry.

On the Weekly, CRMD has an all time high RSI, Looking for a weekly fishhook.

On the daily:
CRMD had two bounces off the its 10 day EMA-- That will identify support and the stop for the trade while we wait for the Weekly to Breakout.

Entry: $7.98


CYTX:
Has a multi-year weekly RSI breakout.  As today's move took it over 70 on the weekly I both.


CYTX has a nice move on the daily after pulling back and reversing on Friday.


AGIO:
AGIO was a trade I had entered prior to my weekend RSI study.  I realized after studying the best performing stocks that this stock had too many flaws at this point as did my strategy for it.

Finally, I closed my AGIO position as I wasn't thrilled with the setup and trying to catch a bottom of a momo stock that's range bound can be a dangerous game.  I exit this trade with a 1% portfolio loss.

Entry: 108:15.
Exit: 105.44

The range was too wide for the size I had on and I'm not overly optimistic that this breaks to the upside when range breaks.


The Weekly RSI has sold off