Showing posts with label APT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label APT. Show all posts

Saturday, December 13, 2014

Opened APT

APT had set up with a pretty nice bace on the 200 MA.  Lake a haz mat suit manufacturer was up big in the morning because it would have earnings over the bell  I bought APT as a sympathy play, figuring that it could run more due to the small float size.  The broad market was selling off and APT closed with only a .07 gain on the day.  But it would get worse as the market did not like LAKE's earnings.  To manage risk, I sold off 2/3 of the position in A.H. 

This was a very poor decision to take this trade. I can see I'm forcing trades now that are not there and I am paying the price for doing so. 

Entry: 2.96
Exit 1: 2.68
Exit 2: 2.67



Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Trade Summaries VSR, CERS, MAR, HCLP, XIV, LEAF, DGLY, APT, Closing in on 50%

It's been a couple of crazy, busy, and profitable days.  I've put risk on took risk off played MOMO and Mean Reversion Trades.   I'm trading very cautiously with reckless abandon.  By that I mean I am taking a lot of shots but if they are not working I'm getting out very quickly. Given the number of trades I've taken I'm doing a bulk update.

Tuesday:
Closed VSR -Pre-market  6.13.  There was a Seeking Alpha hit piece, The ebola trade is getting crowded and at some point it will end in dramatic fashion.  I believe in booking profits and this one went for over 3R without a single minute of exposure to regular market hours, which would have been subject to a brutal pull back.


Entry: 4.20
Exit 1: 5.50  (31%)
Exit 2: 6.13  (46%)

CERS:
This had some momentum behind it and I had hoped it would continue.  It seemed to get stuck, so I bailed.

Entry: 4.26
Exit 1: 4.18
Exit: 2. 4.05
- .04R

DGLY
This former momo beast started to show some renewed energy on a new patent and a new order. I though this move and news might prompt something bigger.  I took a small starter position. Not to be it dropped hard.


Entry: 11.94
Exit: 11.05
- .04R

HCLP:
A blast from the past. Could it be bottoming?  Bought 44.88  seemed to be fading.  Do I trust this market? Nope
Entry: 44.88
Exit 1: 45.61
Exit 2: 45.22  +141
+.25R


LEAF:
So the markets fading but my LEAF trade has somehow miraculously not only held up after nearly being stopped ( I was probably down 1.5R with a 2R stop,)  it gained that all back and somehow I'm green on the position.  Market volatility is increasing.  I decided to cut my position size for a small gain:

Entry: 33.75
Exit 1 (partial): 33.86




MAR
So this one is in a waterfall.  It started to make a comeback, I didn't see it with the ebola thing going around.  Who wants to fly these days?  If no one flies hotels suffer.

Entry: 62.72  (target 60)
Stop. 63.75



Saturday, October 11, 2014

Opened: APT comparing 2009 bird flue to ebola

The "Ebola" Stocks are running. APT makes respirators so its running on massive volume over 2X the entire float, which is a sign that there is some staying power to the move.


My entry 6.58  and partial exit  and then exit of half the position into the close at 7.35.  A great trade as I had enough size to make this trade worth my while realized a 1R gain.  I remind myself, don't get greedy and book some profits. I've still kept half the position.


I initially dismissed APT as a "pop and drop" type of stock, but upon more research I looked into past  earnings and revenue history.  During the 2009 bird flu outbreak revenues and earnings exploded:


And record earnings result:


As would be expected, this was reflected in the stock price, which made a multi-monthy move from 2..25 peaking at over 7.  However, during this time the trading volume that we've seen in APT over the last two days.
Bird flu never reached U.S. soils, ebola now has.  I think its reasonable to conclude that APT will have the type of earnings and revenue growth that it had had in 2009.  Something in the range of $80 Million for the 12 months q3,'14 to q3 '15 is not out of the question.