Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Closed DDD

I did have one loser today as I sold DDD when it it temporary dropped below the 6EMA.  My decision to not wait until my planned stop of 30 is because I've started becoming concerned with the action in many leading stocks.   It is not the time to play hero on a  counter-trend trade such as DDD. I'm willing to cut this trade short and take a small loss here to avoid getting caught up in a bigger market sell down. 

Entry: 32.57
Exit:  31.71
-.04R 

That said, the recovery was decent in this stock today and had I held I would be in the money. The bullish hypothesis would still be alive.  But manage risk, avoid big loses, and the gains will come. 



Opened MOMO, ONNN

ONNN bought nice consolidation here
Entry: 10.24


MOMO:
A recent IPO that picked the wrong moment to go public.  A higher low.
Float: 8million
Momo already grew its user base 160% from a year ago.
THEME- Social networks in China, Chinese Tinder
 backed by BABA (owns 20%) and WUBA owns a stake.

And a ticker symbol guaranteed to get the Momo players looking at it.
That can be the recipe for a power move.
Entry: 12.19



CLOSED RUSS

This trade worked extremely well. Opened in A.H. at 24.80 Yesterday. I sold @27.56 in the first 1/2 hour of the day for an 11% gain. I closed because I decided not to push my luck given holiday trading and the propensity of this instrument to gap.



Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Opened RUSS

I opened RUSS in A.H. at 24.80.  I like the pull back to the 10 EMA last week. Clear stop, low risk, high reward given the power this has shown in the past few weeks. 

Is Russia going to get its house together by raising interest rates and declaring the Ruble crisis to be over?  I don't think so. Nations do not turn on a dime. 


Monday, December 29, 2014

Opened IDRA

Yesterday I posted this chart in my watch list after observing a nice wedge



Today, this pattern resolved itself to the upside in dramatic fashion.  (if only it worked this way all the time).

That said,  I was a little slow on the draw but still picked this up at 4.34, I'll use the trend line as the stop, as it would not be unusual to see a backtest.  But given the volume I would be surprised if this does not continue this move:

Closed NQ

I closed my NQ short today.  I was traveling so I didn't put on a full position after it popped to $5. The retracement from the bullish burst is now nearly complete and I've taken enough meat off this bone. Since the selling has slowed, I'm moving on.

Entry: 4.47 (avg.)
Exit: 4.08




Saturday, December 27, 2014

Stopped out UCO

My oil trade didn't work, I was looking for a bottoming type of move, buying the break of the 6ma, 11.74 with a stop at the bottom of the box 10.75. It turned out that the 6MA break was rejected and this traded lower to the bottom of the box. 

I could have given it more room, but if the support does not hold, this will fall very quickly.  Its always better to sell where you can, than when you have to and the spreads open up. The prudent thing to do, is watch this box and buy the close above it, if a reversal trade still makes sense.



Opened DDD, VDSI

I bought the Range Expansion in DDD today,, As I believe this move is likely to continue. I like that the Risk is Defined here with 3 bars having lows at 30. 
I also bought VDSI.  This one is very much in an uptrend in a hot sector. The weekly chart shows a 3 bar pull back followed buy a bullish expansion. Not a great entry on the daily chart




Tuesday, December 23, 2014

OPENED NQ, UCO

NQ got a buyback announcement and the stock rallied hard.  The stock is coming from an oversold position but it is still a short IMO as the rally took it to the top of this recent trend line, which will be resistance. In addition, announcing 80 mill in a buyback will do little as it does not require NQ to buy the shares.  I don't feel this news warrants a 35% move as the news prior was pretty ominous. 

The past history of this company demonstrates that with past buy back programs, the company only bought a small portion of the shares and issued many more shares in multiples the amounts bought back. The company has not retired any stock repurchased.

I'm taking my initial tranche here.  



UCO
I bought UCO today, as a M/R trade.  I feel this has a well-defined risk limit. My prior energy play reversion trades, ERX have worked And this could get going with a small bounce in oil.
Entry 11.74
Stop: 10.80

Closed BABA, CPA

I got stopped out at 107.89 as It crossed the 6EM, which I used to trail this position. BABA's breakout couldn't get going as much as I would have liked, nonetheless, I exit with a  profit.   The take away, is that I'm much better buying closer to the 50MA.  I wasn't perfect, but that was the difference between this trade that was a winner and one that break out buyers lost.   We'll see if this is as back test or something more tomorrow. It bounced right at the trend line, right at the 50MA.  If it trades up, I'm not opposed to going in again. 

Entry: 106.25
Exit: 107.82

I caught a nice move in CPA on the second go at this stock. but now after 4 days, its best to book profits. Most rallies have a 3-5 day life span. It's best not to test fate.

Entry: 97.70
Exit: 101.60


Monday, December 22, 2014

Closed ERX, SLCA

The mean reversion trade in energy worked out okay for me. It would have worked very well had I sold on Friday, but I didn't I still took over $6.30 out of ERX and came away with a small profit in SLCA.  Again a reminder, ya gatta drop it while its hot. I think it's likely that ERX will enter the chop zone like it did after the October bounce.  I'll see where it establishes the bottom of the trading range, wait for some consolidation, and make a trade.

Entry: $55.73
Exit.   $ 62.05



SLCA
This was disappointing in how quickly it dropped in the AM.  It got to the point where I just salvaged what profits left remained. It's very possible that this could re-test the lows if there's follow through to  the downside tomorrow.

Entry: 26.85
Exit: 27.05


Closed VIMC

There was a new seeking alpha article out this morning accusing VIMC of fraud.  Given the environment where NQ fell off the table, I decided I no longer wanted anything to to with this trade-- A Chinese stock with fraud allegations is too risky to let this play out  I closed it for a .20 loss rather than wait of this trade to develop. 

Entry: 6.24
Exit. 6.20. 


Friday, December 19, 2014

Opened NOAH

I bought NOAH as it bounced off its 10 Week Average. This has a nice Cup set up that it broke out from in a big way.  

Entry: 19.45
Stop <18


OPEN VIMC

Santa Clause has cometh.  That said, I'm not crazy about buying breakouts here.  Given the sell off that we've had over the past few weeks, I believe mean reversion trades are the way to go.  VIMC fits the the bill.  It has a nice tight trading range, which was followed by an range expansion. If this going, It can move 20% or more. 

VIMC has set up nicely
Entry 6.24
Stop 5.50.



Opened CBAY

CBAY was a nice momo burst set up.  It's got volume and range expansion.

Entry 8.85

Opened CPA

CPA is  play on CUBA easing embargo.  It is also a beat down airline that should benefit from lower oil prices.

Entry: 97.714 
Stop: 6ma  close below 96.92.


Open Short OBCI

So a few months ago during the height of the Ebola stock rally, OBCI comes out and announces that they have an "Ebola killing disinfectant"  The stock rallies. I short it because anyone that knows anything that scores of products would kill ebola or other viruses. I make a bunch of money.  The stock falls back into anominty.

The company now hires CEOLIVE to interview it and the stock goes nuts.


Among the highlights:
  •   The CEO, Peter Dornau  calls performacide a "Miracle Solution" that kills every germ known to man. (At 13:20)
  • "2015 is shaping up to be too good to be true"  
  •  5 puppies died in a vet clinic the week before our product was used, "we sprayed down the facility no dogs died whatsoever" (At 11 min) All these areas where the germs are unbelievable -- sales potential is unbelievable.  We could go after horse care, cattle care farm care) (12 mins)
    • We are going to attack those markets but there are so many we can't really do it at once.  Sure Peter.  
    • "It's almost mind boggling where it could be used."
  • My personal favorite,  they are going after police departments  "because everytime they knock someone over the head, god only knows what type of disease he has (8:30)
  • "If you look at our balance sheet it is not a true balance sheet" Peter reasons because their equipment can't be replicated for less than 20 Million they are worth really worth 20 Million more.  (17 mins)  
    • Do they even know what a balance sheet is? 
  • "oh my god, there is so much potential here" 
  • We're exploring the market where women can spray our product on strawberries and they'll stay good for weeks. 
In short, the company expects that performacide is going to be in an "ass of a lot of places" 


I can't make this crap up. This guy should be on an Infomercial.


I am skeptical of any company that needs to pay for promotion.  I've never seen a company not sell off.  About CEOLIVE
CEOLIVE.TV offers digital investor relations and public relations services to paying clients and some of those clients host IR-Channels and forums on CEOLIVE.TV. In the purview ofSection 17(b) of the Securities Act of 1933 and in accordance with FTC 16 CFR Part 255, we call the reader's attention to the fact that the CEOLIVE.TV is an entity engaged in the business of public relations and investor relations and has been hired by certain Companies to increase investor awareness to the investor and consumer community. Full financial disclosures for all public company clients featured on CEOLIVE.TV are available on this website through the following link: Disclosures.
Which provides:
"OCEAN BIO-CHEM (NASDAQ: OBCI) is a client of CEOLIVE.TV. OBCI paid CEOLIVE.TV for video content services, which includes the preparation of CEO interviews. The CEO interviews are prepared for informational purposes only and are paid for by the company portrayed in the interview."   
Sounds objective. So about this miracle product, which  OBCI bought  for just 150K a few months ago. They claim that this is the game changing, "miracle" product?   The active ingredient has been around for over 50 years.  The so-called miracle is that OBCI has a packaging pouch that anyone can used.


Nope, not going to happen. According to the CDC:
"Ebola is killed with hospital-grade disinfectants (such as household bleach)"
Heck, just in my basement, I already own at least 3 cleaners which I've owned for years that could kill Ebola: 

  • OdoBan® is an EPA registered disinfectant. The EPA Registration No. is 66243-2.
  • OdoBan® meets AOAC efficacy standards for hospital disinfectants.
  • OdoBan® meets AOAC efficacy standards for non-food contact surface sanitizers on hard non-porous surfaces.
  • OdoBan® is a Hospital Disinfectant Cleaner that is effective against a wide variety of Gram positive and Gram negative bacteria. It is also an excellent deodorant and leaves a clean fresh odor. Respiratory illnesses attributable to Pandemic 2009 H1N1 are caused by influenza A virus. OdoBan® is a broad-spectrum hard surface disinfectant that has been shown to be effective against Influenza A/Hong Kong and is expected to inactivate all influenza A viruses including Pandemic 2009 H1N1 (formerly called swine flu). OdoBan® has demonstrated effectiveness against Influenza A/Hong Kong and is expected to inactivate all influenza A viruses including Pandemic 2009 H1N1 (formerly called swine flu)
Simple Green D (my wife likes organic shit) but again it would serve the same purpose
  • Hospital–grade disinfectant
  • One–step cleaner and deodorizer
  • Fresh herbal–pine scent
  • High dilution ratios for great economy
Ideal for airplanes, airports, athletic facilities, cafeterias, clinics, day care centers, emergency vehicles, exercise facilities, food service facilities, hospitals, hotels and motels, kitchens, locker rooms, nursing homes, prisons and correctional facilities, public restrooms, schools and colleges, anywhere cleanliness and disinfection are necessary.
Clorox Bleach.  Perhaps  most significant regular, ordinary bleach will kill ebola.  No body needs to turn to some cleaner they've never heard off out of fear, They can go to the products they already buy such as Clorox Bleach, which is more than capable of killing ebola.  

"This week our company took a first step, donating 12,000 64-ounce bottles of Clorox® bleach destined for West Africa. " 
Incidentally, Clorox's initial donation has a market value of nearly the entirety of OBCI's purchase of performacide. 

Consequently, I would question whether there will be any uptick in profits at all.  Any revenue OBCI receives would be mere fraction of the purchase price it paid for Performacide.  Obviously, if performacide were generating 150K in profits a year, it would have sold for a multiple of its earnings (P/e ratio).
  • But isn't Performacide the best, Ebola killer out there?
Anyone that makes such a claim has obviously not read the specs for Performacide.  
"Solution will be usable in 60 minutes (1 hour).
NOTE: Allow ONE (1) HOUR BEFORE USE TO ENSURE SOLUTION REACHES FULL STRENGTH. Be sure to agitate upon addition of the pouch to the water and before initial use. Temperature must be kept between 20-25oC. "
So we have an Ebola outbreak and I have to choose how to clean it up.  Do I go with the product such as bleach that can be used immediately or do I pick Performacide which I have to wait an hour to use?

  • Soft goods, such as linens, clothes, etc..? nope:  Performacide is a "DISINFECTANT OR VIRUCIDE*FOR HARD, NON-POROUS SURFACES? 
  • Revnue trend?



Another reason I do not see a buyout is that the company insiders rely heavily inn the company for income.  In addition to their salaries there are a number of "Related Party Transactions" that   app are to make more for the insiders than their OBCI day jobs: 

  • During the three and six months ended June 30, 2014 and 2013, the Company sold products to companies affiliated with its Chairman, President and Chief Executive OfficerThe affiliated companies distribute the products outside of the United States and Canada. 
    • Sales to the affiliated companies aggregated approximately $295,000 and $469,000 during the three months ended June 30, 2014 and 2013, respectively, and approximately $1,008,000 and $940,000 for the six months ended June 30, 2014 and 2013, respectively. 
    • This begs the question why is the CEO's personal companies distributing OBCI's products instead of OBCI?   
  • "the terms of sale to the affiliated companies differed from the terms applicable to other customers ..."  OBCI then goes on to attempt to justify the sweet heart deal the CEO's affiliate company is getting  "the affiliated companies bear their own warehousing, distribution, advertising, selling and marketing costs, as well as their own freight charges" 
And there's more:
  • "A subsidiary of the Company currently uses the services of an entity that is owned by its Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer to conduct product research and development, marketing and advertising. .. the Company paid the entity approximately $10,500 for each of the three month periods ended June 30, 2014 and 2013, and $21,000 for each of the six month periods ended June 30, 2014 and 2013."
  • The Company leases office and warehouse facilities in Fort Lauderdale, Florida from an entity controlled by its Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer.  
In the CEO LIVE interview, the company says it is expanding its warehouse space.  Perhaps the CEO needs some more rent money.
  •  A director of the Company is Regional Executive Vice President of an entity from which the Company sources most of its insurance needs at an arm’s length competitive basis.  During the three months ended June 30, 2014 and 2013, the Company paid an aggregate of approximately $98,000 and $150,000, respectively, and during the six months ended June 30, 2014 and 2013, the Company paid an aggregate of approximately $315,000 and $333,000, respectively, in insurance premiums on policies obtained through the entity. 
These types of transaction should always raise red flags. Frankly, If I were a shareholder I would question the property of such transactions. If these deals are worth doing, why isn't management doing them for the company instead of for themselves.  Got fiduciary duty? Well at least we know  that management would be insured against such a claim from the policies they purchased from their director's company. 

I've worked with numerous private equity groups.  There is no way that investors are going to buyout a company that has all these additional contracts to benefit management's own companies.  I would also suspect that management has no interest in selling given the deals their own companies are making off the backs of the OBCI shareholders. 

Q2 results that saw EPS growth of 137% doesn't that demonstrate huge growth?    not so much turns out.  ---  Consider Q1 Revs.  Down pretty big.  


So what happened?  Well it turns out that Q1 was pretty cold in most parts of the country and customers delayed their purchases that they would have made in Q1 to Q2-- so Q1 looked horrible and Q2 looked amazing.  Combine q1 and q2  them Q13 had 14.49 mill versus 14.72 mill in revs for Q1.  Not exactly setting the world on fire with that type of growth.  

In q3, how did this ground company perform?:  Revenues were down YOY.


Summary
  • Company is pumping itself  -- "2015 looks too good to be true"  trying to capitalize itself on Ebola hype.
  • OBCI is unlikely to ever realize any revenues due to that hype.  
  • Current earnings and rev growth do not support the stock price pop
  • Price target-- Back to business as usual. $2.95-3.25

Trade the fade.


Thursday, December 18, 2014

Closed TASR

TASR got a Nice move yesterday.  Today It gapped up and then gave it back.  I sold as the gap faded came in at 23.85. At this point, I feel there are better set ups out there.  I believe that it is likely the TASR gap will fill.  I'll let this set up again. 

Entry: 23.19
Exit:  23.85
.4% equity.  With the gap This morning I thought this could have been a double but turns out just to be a small gain. 


Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Opened, HCLP

Opened HCLP for a mean reversion trade.  Given market conditions, playing this small. 

Entry: 32.65.
stop: 30


Saturday, December 13, 2014

Opened DGLY

DGLY bounced very hard today after news that a bill was introduced requiring all police departments to have body cams to obtain federal funding.  I did not jump in right away and instead bought the pull back at 16.24.  DGLY was unable to get a secondary push and sold down. 

This was not the type of set ups that have made me money this year and I should not have entered this trade.  Fortunately, I bought this very small.  I will look to exit this trade on Monday. 


Opened BABA, CYBR

CYBR bounced at the 50 MA earlier this week and despite broad market.  I like this more as a set up on a weekly chart.  I bought here as it is "buying value" as opposed to chasing a breakout so I took an initial position at these levels. If we get our Santa Clause rally, I'll be sitting pretty. If not, my exposure is reduced by buying in this range. 
Entry: 38.48


BABA

Baba looked like  it would continue what it had started after its initial bounce at the 50.   I bought small at
Entry: 106.26

Opened APT

APT had set up with a pretty nice bace on the 200 MA.  Lake a haz mat suit manufacturer was up big in the morning because it would have earnings over the bell  I bought APT as a sympathy play, figuring that it could run more due to the small float size.  The broad market was selling off and APT closed with only a .07 gain on the day.  But it would get worse as the market did not like LAKE's earnings.  To manage risk, I sold off 2/3 of the position in A.H. 

This was a very poor decision to take this trade. I can see I'm forcing trades now that are not there and I am paying the price for doing so. 

Entry: 2.96
Exit 1: 2.68
Exit 2: 2.67



Opened TASR

I liked the reversal that TASR had at the $21 a level which has held 3 times despite bad tape in the overall market.  That being said, this is not the type of set up I prefer as it has not consolidated. 

Entry: 23.19
Stop: 22.09


Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Opened BABA

BABA bounced nicely on the 50 Day MA.  I bought at $104.88 with a trailing stop which would get me out at 106.91 the next morning as the move was rejected.  As I look back, a trailing stop was a pretty decent way to play this move. 

Entry: $104.88
Exit: $106.91
1.06R

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Closed WAB

This is getting frustrating.  Even in this environment my shorts weren't working.  WAB bounced.  I take the loss on the position.  As it bounced, I covered my first lot for a small profit, but the remainder I take a loss.

Entry: 85.58
Exit 1: 85.23
Exit 2:  87.21
-.7R


EMES (opened closed_

EMES looked like it was catching a bounce.  I bought @ 48.42. And although this trade initially was working going up over $1.50 it quickly reversed and I wound up taking a loss.

Entry 48.42
Exit 46.82




Monday, December 8, 2014

Opened WAB short

I had shorted WAB recently and caught a nice move. It attempted to rally but that rally sold off. I sold it short again.

We'll see if it holds the line.

Closed OREX, ISNS, MPAA, TUBE, GMCR,YRCW, AMED

Lots of selling today.  524 stocks down greater than 4%.  Unfortunately, I owned several of them.  I got knocked out of a bunch of positions as stops were hit.  That's trading. So here's the damage:

OREX-- This was the first to go.  It's breakout never really got going.  This hasn't really broke down...yet. But I didn't go into this trade to wait for 4 weeks in hopes that its move would resume.  I'm perfectly fine getting out here.


Entry: 6.09
Entry 5.94
Closed 5.68

ISNS, This actually made a run after gapping down but it was not to be. It was sold off and I'm out. My mistake was selling my second lot, more than buying my third.

Entry 1: 3.08
Entry 2: 3.01
Entry 3:  4.02
Exit 1: 3.21
Exit 2: 3.04
Exit 3: 3.55

MPAA
This was a breakout trade that got slammed back down.

Entry:35.65
Exit 33.80
-.9%R

TUBE:
This was a decent trade.  I stayed committed to my plan to use the 6EMA as my stop, which meant I moved it up.  As the market sold off, TUBE was closed



Entry 15.86
Exit: $16.75
+.6R

GMCR

I closed my short out as out GMCR was down 6 days in a row. Since it did not appear this morning that we would have the selling we did this afternoon, I figured there was no sense in pushing this trade farther.  I had traded it nicely
Entry 140.72
Exit. 131.90
1.5%R


YRCW
Another Breakout slammed back down.
Entry: 24.92
Exit:  23.95



AMED:
I bought this on the B/o this morning.  I played it with a tight stop as I figured a true breakout shouldn't go red on breakout day. This one was crammed down.

Entry: 26.89
Exit: 26.26


Closed PLNR

After nearly breaking out, PLNR caught an analyst down grade.  The next day, it briefly sold off below 7.00 and my stop was hit.

ENTRY: 7.78
Exit 6.85



On the big picture PLNR still looks healthy, despite the overall market conditions.  





Friday, December 5, 2014

Opened YRCW, RESN

YRCW is setup very nicely. The Gap has held and now its breaking out of consolidation. This move was all in one solid push with not much action after.  Stop at the LOD 


RESN

RESN is a recent IPO that I've been waiting for to move.  Today it did. Perhaps I was chasing bought at 9.26.  But it's another thin stock that moves fast.  I got the buy alert and did not hesitate despite the size of todays move.

The Weekly Chart:
This would be Week 1 of the IPO trade b/o.  It's go time and I'm not missing whats about to follow.  Stop < $8. 2 week support.

Closed EXAS

I caught a fantastic move after buying yesterday.  Still I was a little too quick on the trigger and sold at 27.07.  I admit that after It came in from 27.57 I got a bit nervous and banged it out.  That decision was influenced by the fact that the last time I bought this in the 24s I had a b/o fail at 25.40.  In any event. My trade gained  6.7%.  
Entry: 25.37
Exit: 27.07
+1.70,  1.13R


Thursday, December 4, 2014

Opened EXAS, RGLS, PLNR

EXAS crashed through resistance at 25.20 . I picked it up at $25.37.   There was nice action on the close.  I like the base it has launched from.  The gap was thoroughly tested and held, now its time to go higher. 


PLNR
I've watched this stock hold its gap repeatedly and then consolidate. I bought today as it broke range 7.79.  It ran to 7.99 but sold off. Not thrilled with the action into the close but we'll see as the broad market sold off as well.

RGLS
I bought this into consolidation.  This is could be a decent continuation play.