tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38995441103277249882024-02-19T07:45:46.378-08:00Speculations of a SpeculatorScot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.comBlogger556125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-84191999862603764632019-07-06T15:35:00.000-07:002019-07-06T15:35:05.934-07:00The Fishhook <div>
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The "Fishhook" is a setup I have used successfully for years to get entries in powerful stocks. This post will cover what a " fishhook "is and how I to trade it.</div>
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<b>The objective and Background.</b></h3>
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Before beginning, I must make a confession--I used to trade junk stocks.</div>
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Still, some of those stocks would make amazing moves. Remember the Ebola hazmat suit stocks, shipping stocks, and the dozens of biotech stocks? Sure some ran for hundreds of percents but most were one-day wonders. How could I determine what stocks had superstar potential and which stocks were done?</div>
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I then started studying big winners and noticed something interesting-- the stocks that could make a big move one day, then fall below (profit taking/ shorts) that first day close and then recover that level must have abnormal strength. I called the setup the fishhook because it looked like a fishhook curving around.</div>
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Although I enjoyed a fair amount of success trading junk stocks, I don't like them. The gap risk is substantial. I have been in many stocks that were working and have had big gains that get erased in seconds after a dilution filing. </div>
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I made a major breakthrough in my trading when I cut out illiquid stocks from my universe. I then realized that the fishhook was a great way to get into major moves (usually following earnings) and it is my favorite way to get into an earnings move. </div>
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Trading the Fishhook</h3>
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Earnings trading is tricky--take a position before them and you take a major binary risk. Buy the earning's gap and you risk getting faded all day. The fishhook reduces these risks-- it is setup to take advantage of a continuation of an earning's related move. The initial reaction (profit taking) gets supported by institutions who continue buying and this continued demand is what I look to take advantage of.</div>
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Step 1. Identify Massive Interest -- </h4>
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The first thing I look for is stocks that are showing massive interest. In other words, the volume is high and the percentage move on the day is large. Earnings usually will cause this interest; however, other news related events such as FDA announcements can do the same. Gaps are good indicators of demand/ supply imbalances.</div>
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Step 2. -- let supply dry up and buy on the reclaim</h4>
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After the initial day move (the one that everyone on twitter) starts talking about, there is almost always some type of counter move. Profit taking, at that point, I want to see a trading range start to narrow and the 5ema hold. The stock should trade below the Day 1 High Volume close at some point during the next 2 to 4 days. A stock that trades below and then recovers the Day 1 close, triggers the fishhook. </div>
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Examples: SNAP has been a big winner for me this year from the fishhook entry:</div>
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AAOI: This turned out to be one of my best trades of that year:</div>
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<img height="375" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/LdOf2e7g/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /></div>
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CYBR: Nice trend from the entry:</div>
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<img height="374" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/GvyGVGpD/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /></div>
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<b>STEP 3: Manage Risk / setting stops</b></h4>
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As with any setup, the fishhook can fail. Danger signs would be where the stock cannot hold the day 1 close after recapturing the close at a minimum the 5 ema should hold, thats the area where I look to place my stop until a run occurs. At that point, it's just a matter of letting the trade work. Some will, some won't.</div>
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Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-19835717194931512922019-04-28T07:38:00.002-07:002019-04-28T19:57:16.386-07:00The "Why" of Chart Patterns. Many beginning traders think that they need to learn what all the chart patterns: The cup with a handle, the flags, wedges, etc.. However, once you begin on that trajectory you begin seeing them everywhere. Unfortunately, not all flag patterns are the same.<br />
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It is far better to understand why the patterns are formed.</div>
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One stock I was asked about is $FTNT -- its a good one to analyze.</div>
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Here's the big picture view:</div>
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First - let's start with how the parabolic run up started:</div>
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This pattern might be called a Cup </div>
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1. Starts with an excited parabolic sunup 100% move into $50 - common for stocks to fail at the obvious round number levels 50, 100, 200, 250 500 etc.. after a double. And that's what happened. Clear signs of a blow off, and look how distribution hit the stock. It had progressed pretty evenly on left side, but after $50 reject, big wild swings and it rerun all the way to prior breakout.</div>
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2. Then the base building pattern begins. Investors with a longer term perspective start taking positions. Nothing to due but wait for it to get tight and character to change.</div>
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3. Towards's right side of the base, notice how it starts holding the 5EMA? the volatile swings are gone and the stock starts grinding higher. Clear sign of demand. -- Early positions can be taken in this range, The upside is stops can be tighter and your in before the breakout.</div>
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<b>The Markup</b></div>
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After the breakout, at $50, FTNT then begins a nice steady markup. Nothing crazy but demand is there. The 20EMA was support for this entire move and positions could be taken off bounces.</div>
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<b>The parabolic blow off</b></div>
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Gaps in a stock should accelerate the pace of the move.</div>
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1. Earnings gap big volume. Notice narrow range after earnings day. That means there is a ton of demand. It's holding the earnings pop and the natural tendency to take profits after an overnight 10 pt. move is overcome by new buyers. </div>
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2. Pace accelerates - 5ema now holds for move. </div>
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3. a sell off to 20ema would feel like a big drop -- but we know FTNT has found support at that level. and it did again. </div>
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<b>Blow off and re-set</b></div>
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Eventually, a stock that has made a major advance will run out of demand, </div>
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Warning signs include</div>
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1. massive blow off: -- this stock doesn't show that, or</div>
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2. tepid act after range break -- this occurred</div>
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After small dip to 20ema, it -rebroke out -- no volume and move quickly failed, profit should be taken off failed breakout, or if did not read that more subtle signal- certainly after the 20ema failed.</div>
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/g8FBR5RK/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="336" data-original-width="800" height="268" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/g8FBR5RK/" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>The Cycle Repeats</b></div>
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Just as FTNT went into unwind and base after last parabolic move it starts it again.</div>
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Clues to look for in base, is a support area. _ I find that when a stock has a big down day that looks like it is going to totally break down and then it cannot do so, is something to start watching -- note I said "watch" not "buy" -- then watch for character change before buying. </div>
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This one is interesting because it went into a base within a base. -- the right side of the chart and those narrow range days -- have my interest peaked. - narrow range stores up power. -- Next move should be large. Note, however that earnings coming up.. </div>
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/shTsazO8/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="336" data-original-width="800" height="268" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/shTsazO8/" width="640" /></a></div>
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OR we could just say its a cup and a handle</div>
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Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-13195868447010837282019-03-03T06:54:00.002-08:002019-03-03T07:00:49.895-08:00Mystery Chart - $BKNG $PCLN<a href="https://twitter.com/TMLTrader">@TML Trader </a> a must follow on trader on twitter posted a mystery chart which a question: would you buy this breakout?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP_uhC8HErEJa47ef189Q0LjFbALzclx2TPrDeMpJXhH8_SORjnbxZt6qBpIHdemBo94fFu-bKb-L1cSkITRyJJBFUFWIrKtPYFzNTUiqRnqABAaM7gp7_4sYvbnkTMxOp8uhtfD8n_Is/s1600/PLCN+1.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="603" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP_uhC8HErEJa47ef189Q0LjFbALzclx2TPrDeMpJXhH8_SORjnbxZt6qBpIHdemBo94fFu-bKb-L1cSkITRyJJBFUFWIrKtPYFzNTUiqRnqABAaM7gp7_4sYvbnkTMxOp8uhtfD8n_Is/s640/PLCN+1.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Some said yes, some said no because it was "Straight up from the bottom" SUFB.<br />
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TML Trader then posted the immediate reaction - gap down after breakout- certainly looked like a secondary or other news driven event to me-- TML confirmed it was a secondary.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7FVlSmDH4YrO0ChCom3LyS86vJoE08y9DMRvQZjvIg2R1HbjGPCq8G81hptIw62sMNU-ZQVVfDc4N5uep-Sk7jVpI8Aucq3oZI2T_IUH0P9OjpXmCwt7pr7jBO-Duk0o_47MDQ2ey37Y/s1600/PLCN+2.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="624" data-original-width="1600" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7FVlSmDH4YrO0ChCom3LyS86vJoE08y9DMRvQZjvIg2R1HbjGPCq8G81hptIw62sMNU-ZQVVfDc4N5uep-Sk7jVpI8Aucq3oZI2T_IUH0P9OjpXmCwt7pr7jBO-Duk0o_47MDQ2ey37Y/s640/PLCN+2.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div>
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I look at the above chart and get very excited. Notice how the secondary volume and price level held at the level big volume came in to the stock-- That's institutional support. Retail gets scared out on a secondary announcement-- institutions take the panic shares. --<br />
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<b>I would absolutely buy that stock -- I actually went through the list of secondaries last night hoping I could figure out what it was and buy it on Monday-</b>- Unfortunately, it turns out it was a historic example of Priceline-- Bookings holding and not a chart from last week.<br />
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Anyway here is my annotations on how I would apply my rules and trade that stock.<br />
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<img height="363" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/5hJBCRlZ/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-52879012594398168852019-02-03T11:03:00.000-08:002019-02-03T11:03:21.467-08:00AMZN AMZN is one of the most iconic stocks -- and it must be studied to understand how it ran, where to buy and how to own it.<br />
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<b>Infant Stage</b>:<br />
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<img height="252" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/VfUPMnAN/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /><br />
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How I would have traded First IPO base<br />
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<img height="253" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/sRX3bSJK/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /><br />
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The Breakout of that First IPO base:<br />
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<img height="252" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/1CCW1zWj/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /><br />
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<b>Exiting the IPO base breakout buy:</b><br />
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AMZN<br />
Got really extended from the entry and well above the 10ema - That's an exit for me.<br />
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<img height="253" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/vwV1boYG/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /><br />
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Round 2:<br />
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Exit:<br />
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Next entry and exit:<br />
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Next entry:<br />
Slingshot, but likely would be stopped out with small loss.<br />
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AMZN Next Breakout<br />
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<img height="253" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/12JbA6rH/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /><br />
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AMZN blow off run:<br />
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<img height="253" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/csJxpu7Q/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-86545975130204549732019-02-01T17:13:00.001-08:002019-02-01T17:14:34.520-08:00January Trading reviewJanuary:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwRGpsi9_IWe3xXwq0642Q180Q2hIl1qxJDqiARuPp8RpvnTvuNXDVLcSoTo3ZN_sakn8yJgsZh7_IDX3lvsW4kgwobBT16OtXErJjkwE5ZfXDH9IgMdMaw8Dwaa96qOqpFzFefGbl5NI/s1600/Jan+2019.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="528" height="101" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwRGpsi9_IWe3xXwq0642Q180Q2hIl1qxJDqiARuPp8RpvnTvuNXDVLcSoTo3ZN_sakn8yJgsZh7_IDX3lvsW4kgwobBT16OtXErJjkwE5ZfXDH9IgMdMaw8Dwaa96qOqpFzFefGbl5NI/s320/Jan+2019.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<b>Assessment: B+</b><br />
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I did a very good job of managing my downside. My biggest loss was only about 800 < than 1% equity -- and given I got up to nearly 200% long at times, so that's saying a lot. My biggest winner (COUP) is over 5X my biggest loss (and still riding).<br />
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My mistakes were selling too early in some of the earlier trades I took this month. Indeed one of my early positions was $CGC (Jan. 9) with a $32 entry. I was out entirely by $37. I go both ways on that trade, on one had that gave me some gains which provided the foundation to be able to spar with the market as it consolidated and moving averages in my stocks were tested.<br />
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I made it it a point to trim positions as I had gains on spikes. And, I executed that plan-- although it would have been nice to have the types of gains that a full position in COUP would have provided, I have no regrets.<br />
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My absolutely worst trade- and biggest mistake was selling covered calls on TWLO. That stupid decision cost at least $2k. <br />
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My Win rate was at 65% which is historically well above average so that's a warning for me, <b>the correction is coming- don't get complacent. </b><br />
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<b>Feb. GOALS</b><br />
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<b>Manage expectations, Don't try to do to much, use opportunities and rips to step off the gas. Key into AMZN, GOOG, NFLX</b><br />
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<b>Earnings Gapers to watch: XLNX, NOW</b><br />
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<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-87711867076738582982019-01-30T20:30:00.001-08:002019-01-30T20:30:57.152-08:00How I Trade IPOS -- The InfantsAs a follow-up to my <a href="http://sostrading.blogspot.com/2019/01/new-ipo-book.html">review</a> of "The Lifecycle Trader," I thought I would share how I personally trade IPOs.<br />
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Track New Ipos</h3>
The first, and arguably most important thing, is to actually track IPOs as the come public. I put each one on a watchlist for that particular year because many will run together.<br />
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3899544110327724988" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><br />
My favorite Site is <a href="https://ipoboutique.com/cgi/ipo-trackrecord-all-2018.php">Ipo Boutique</a> for IPO research. which lists IPOs month by month and year-by-year. It is a great historical resource, which I've used for my studies.<br />
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<h3>
The IPO Infants 1-8 Months from trade date</h3>
<div>
IPO infants are very temperamental. They very rarely make for a successful buy and hold. But they can make incredibly powerful moves. Better yet, on the whole, the majority will make at least a +30% run, so they give great opportunities. It's important to treat these like swing trades, Trim on the rips. </div>
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<div>
AAOI was a very tradable infant. - Largely ignored by the crowd vol came in, which gave you a 30% move though the IPO day close and then another move from 13 to 16. </div>
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<img height="296" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/4kHCSsE5/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /></div>
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Another common pattern:</div>
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<div>
An IPO, that holds its IPO price and then has enough vol. come in to hold a gap, is a great sign of strength </div>
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<img height="296" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/DEtMj4ml/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
The "Hype" Fade</div>
<div>
It's pretty common for IPOs that are hyped products to fade over the next week or so. Also, a big opening day trading range is a caution. But that doesn't mean that the stocks don't show them self for profit opportunities. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
SNAP for example was considered a loser IPO by most, I did well on it, trading it exclusively on the long side.</div>
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<div>
It faded hard from the opening, but notice the range contraction right at the 13 days in after it hammered the day before -- That should put it on the watch list. I bought the next day as volume came in but perhaps. It worked ok. It then gave another opportunity finding support at the previous level. I didn't have any confidence to take it in to earnings so I sold the day of and missed the carnage. </div>
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<img height="296" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/UflriqpW/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
PI:</div>
<div>
Like AAOI - held the initial range. So basically the buy signal is range expansion + Vol. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
<img height="296" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/DJ5llsVN/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>BE:</b></div>
<div>
Buy signals, narrow range follow pull back then expansion. Vol came in above the average days. </div>
<div>
<img height="296" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xfcr6s7J/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
TME:</div>
<div>
One I'm holding now, the initial Dip could have been bought but wasn't crazy about the vol. at that point. I waited until it moved above IPO close price and took the position. I got lucky on my trim as it turned out because it looked like it was going to go a lot higher. Sell in to strength in these. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<img height="296" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/NbGX5YFI/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
QTT:</div>
<div>
Volume comes in as price picks up through IPO open and day 2 close. </div>
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<div>
<img height="296" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/e11MAHFp/" style="-webkit-user-select: none; display: block; margin: auto;" width="640" /></div>
Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-38783099780133890722019-01-27T17:10:00.001-08:002019-01-29T18:32:23.562-08:00The Lifecycle Trade -- Book ReviewAlright! I got my copy of the "Lifecycle Trade" How to Win At trading IPos and Super Growth Stocks. As many know, IPOs has been a topic that I have extensively <a href="http://educsos.blogspot.com/search/label/IPOs?updated-max=2017-07-15T22:30:00-07:00&max-results=20&start=2&by-date=false">researched</a>. So I was excited to see how the book would compare to my own findings.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ac&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=sosstocks-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=1733506608&asins=1733506608&linkId=db95a19ffb34de1c5fe2478920802ba9&show_border=false&link_opens_in_new_window=false&price_color=333333&title_color=0066C0&bg_color=FFFFFF" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;">
</iframe><br />
Overview.<br />
<br />
The book is short--its only about 100 pages but it is a good resource. It went over 1,679 stocks and categorized them into six categories:<br />
<ol>
<li>Late Bloomer</li>
<li>Pump and Dump</li>
<li>One- Hit Wonder</li>
<li>Rocket Ships</li>
<li>Stair Stepper </li>
<li>and Disappointments. </li>
</ol>
<div>
The books then categorizes the different phases:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
IPO - Advance Phase</div>
<div>
Institutional Due Diligence</div>
<div>
Institutional Advance Phase.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I've personally talked about the phases as "Infant" and "Toddlers." Infants can make big runs but they are not sustainable: TLRY ACIA, SHAK, GPRO. Toddlers make the most epic moves. ESPR, AAXN (TASR) and become true market leaders.. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Praise & </b><b>Criticisms</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
One of the stated goals of the authors of the book was to find the "next Amazon." I think that misses the point of IPO trading. An Amazon is a 1 in a 5,000 stock and its not necessarily the best buy point to get it right from the IPO breakout move and ride it forever. -- AMZN had a 90% drawdown from 2000 -2001 The buy/sell rules aren't necessarily that effective for the majority of IPO trades and there is a lot of survivorship basis. Can you ride out a 50% drawdown? I'm not interested in trying. Also, hundreds of IPOs have either gone belly-up or have gotten bought out. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The book has some very nice chart examples of the different phases and provides nicely written explanations of the different characteristics of IPOs. Some of the Stats were particularly interesting 20% of IPOs. Within a year 20% of IPOs will make a 100% run. While a 100% is a great goal, 80% don't get there so are they worth trading? My research shows that 80% will make at least a 30%+ run which is pretty easy to identify when it its coming and that, in my opinion, is the advantage of IPOs</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I agree with their conclusion that buying on the IPO day is a not a good strategy. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Point being, I think you need to have different "trigger" rules for different phases. Until an IPO has gone through a basing pattern or wipeout its not a long term hold. The institutional Mark they talk about is very real, but it generally occurs past the point where I would call a stock an IPO. -- and the True Market Leaders will tell you who they are by the volume pattern. There will be many, many other buy points in a TML that aren't necessarily as what I would call an IPO.<br />
<br />
The trade examples and Q and A were very good. The Authors point out trades they mismanaged as well as ones they got right. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Recommendation</b></div>
<div>
<b>Buy it.</b> -- its a great little resource to provide a framework for the various stages. </div>
<div>
That said, the book is a good resource but no substitute for going through the charts one-by-one and noting buy points. -- that's the only way to really gain conviction. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-21798822970908148432019-01-05T13:03:00.002-08:002019-01-05T13:03:53.638-08:00New Year<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Let's put it out there right away +19% and change. Sure, I "beat" the market but that doesn't say much.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Coming in to this past year, my weakness was not being able to hold my winners long enough. So I set a goal for myself to take on the year with a "home run" mindset:</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br />
<div class="separator" style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcOMEaHagvArYwHTFocDoWTKOdh9vTx-KbcMg27go4rgFeIWiEspwUO6QxEeN1dQqt3Xlbff9N9wDTWFAM5SOHbTF3WFuA0cmpNig_LH5YIM87xGQ28eieTr9VMFzHuv65YAPW89IazIZI/s1600/2018+Goals.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="352" data-original-width="1184" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcOMEaHagvArYwHTFocDoWTKOdh9vTx-KbcMg27go4rgFeIWiEspwUO6QxEeN1dQqt3Xlbff9N9wDTWFAM5SOHbTF3WFuA0cmpNig_LH5YIM87xGQ28eieTr9VMFzHuv65YAPW89IazIZI/s640/2018+Goals.jpeg" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Regardless of the end result, I feel that approach was critical for my development as a speculator and I've said it at various points this year that I feel that I'm still 3 years away from being very good at this game.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">I needed to teach myself what it felt like to be in big winners, what it felt like to manage the trade, what emotions I would deal with along the way, and what the ultimate exit signals would look like. I also needed to teach myself what it felt like to take a big position and to hold that position, and to get out of that position when I was wrong. Obviously, that's a lot to learn and at times, I got it right, and at times I got it very wrong.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><u>So the good:</u></b><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><u><br /></u></b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">I hit some big trades:</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">AAXN:</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/LLEvcqQh/" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="800" height="384" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/LLEvcqQh/" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">NFLX: Between my positions made about 70 points</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZyLNiyrK/" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="800" height="384" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZyLNiyrK/" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">MDB:</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/TwUoarGT/" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="800" height="384" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/TwUoarGT/" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">The Bad:</b><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br /></b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">My worst stock of the year. This was a culmination of many attempts to get pull back entry (with size). The most disgusting part about this stock, was I started off with a huge profit. Within 3 days, the calls I bought for $2 were trading for $15. </span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">What I failed to realize was this was the blow off to the upside. Instead I was convinced that it would resume on the uptrend after pulling back to the 10 ema. So I was adding shares and size. Ultimately not only did I give back the entirety of my options gains, I through big losses on the 3 or 4 times I tried to enter on common stock.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/QENGrHP9/" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="800" height="384" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/QENGrHP9/" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br /></b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">TWTR:</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">I was in early, and first entry worked but didn't give the cushion for earnings. OF course, it gaps and I got fomo and bought with size and got my butt kicked. </span><br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/yTL7Ai1A/" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="800" height="384" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/yTL7Ai1A/" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">HEAR:</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Another one multiple attempts, my time was never good enough:</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">I knew this would be a big winner, and I constantly stalked it but my timing was off (or at least stops and position size. Got knocked out with interlay reversals.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/aClwK5Xc/" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="800" height="384" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/aClwK5Xc/" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">The UGLY</b><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">The Ugly had to be my equity curve through out the year.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2TslmM85rsEMmrR1tYpcXcXl6GPLnqhM2VAjs4jJRnlTvYMbqXYNl_XmsH55H3tfeigrw8j0ZUDDkUQbgONf2v7ucLVmC-A6VP4TMsHbGlNRb6ZcJ0UTWUpzJIj0rkeR-tvfT67wXyL4e/s1600/equity+curve.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="864" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2TslmM85rsEMmrR1tYpcXcXl6GPLnqhM2VAjs4jJRnlTvYMbqXYNl_XmsH55H3tfeigrw8j0ZUDDkUQbgONf2v7ucLVmC-A6VP4TMsHbGlNRb6ZcJ0UTWUpzJIj0rkeR-tvfT67wXyL4e/s640/equity+curve.jpeg" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">At times I had massive surges in very short periods. But the backside was awful. The last quarter was ugly for several reasons.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">First, I was right on the market, I suspected when we were putting a top in during October and even moved all my stops up into the gap. </span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">How can I be so right:</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJKyULIBaNfYQMGgouoVPpPxQeS6rdpthJtS-Ql8-Do-4nSE7w_bsmUGLYBmcMf2xgafXvzkhon3FMokmF2Drbp_G4_BzrJEsa8dd_HxlCyHphMbnGKnPSZlXKoOGH7yda1j46_4NCOvmx/s1600/Sept+30.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="246" data-original-width="1234" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJKyULIBaNfYQMGgouoVPpPxQeS6rdpthJtS-Ql8-Do-4nSE7w_bsmUGLYBmcMf2xgafXvzkhon3FMokmF2Drbp_G4_BzrJEsa8dd_HxlCyHphMbnGKnPSZlXKoOGH7yda1j46_4NCOvmx/s640/Sept+30.jpeg" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">I saw the signal, moved my stops up to the gap-- yeah I gave up some profits but that's the cost of doing business. </span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">I went to cash</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjukP5PA94ISXm5gnFvXMJAH2wa0xn5z5fa3JHlDHqq45Z895doh8SUU5beeFHIRVsFCoNSTKCzSdl-7RvgTkYX0KFwB4LSeN59tiiwtimbV_zhpcjgEAdZC-p8Mcm6GNBJRDIDHJSh1LA2/s1600/oct+3.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="1352" height="128" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjukP5PA94ISXm5gnFvXMJAH2wa0xn5z5fa3JHlDHqq45Z895doh8SUU5beeFHIRVsFCoNSTKCzSdl-7RvgTkYX0KFwB4LSeN59tiiwtimbV_zhpcjgEAdZC-p8Mcm6GNBJRDIDHJSh1LA2/s640/oct+3.jpeg" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Recognized the start of the bear</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW0H2HZZW-vN604sXZqKi2EBptqknvzC1LQjGKySvo-jJU7AsAprtKe4XkRMf7D4s-SpgfL9qoQMsU0XvOzOtjTMDJPIuTmSdUZREh9YzZDn36A8wuX7wYtdKoU_VqEQxH68W1G3egHtSt/s1600/oct+14+-+bear+mkt.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #7d181e; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="1256" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW0H2HZZW-vN604sXZqKi2EBptqknvzC1LQjGKySvo-jJU7AsAprtKe4XkRMf7D4s-SpgfL9qoQMsU0XvOzOtjTMDJPIuTmSdUZREh9YzZDn36A8wuX7wYtdKoU_VqEQxH68W1G3egHtSt/s640/oct+14+-+bear+mkt.jpeg" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
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And still got my butt kicked.</div>
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The problem was I didn't realize that the character of the market had changed, and I was trying to trade the way I did at the beginning of the year, where I would get into positions, get big gains, and ride the trend.</div>
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The buy signals in Q4 were pretty much the same as the rest of the year and they worked. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt4zijYMbl2o-4Rnj9jiw2EUTMpdhhlvWr95G3P8J0lnTJY_fpOxhJkzTqzG7X0M7PrBGW5BaauKFjkSNOxFkTbsd1hN0_ADhVmArLPWdMcCmxXXX2HasGGbETKMJjFOeVPeehuWmodwnS/s1600/OCt+11.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; color: #7d181e; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="1232" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt4zijYMbl2o-4Rnj9jiw2EUTMpdhhlvWr95G3P8J0lnTJY_fpOxhJkzTqzG7X0M7PrBGW5BaauKFjkSNOxFkTbsd1hN0_ADhVmArLPWdMcCmxXXX2HasGGbETKMJjFOeVPeehuWmodwnS/s640/OCt+11.jpeg" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; background-color: white; border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 0px 20px; padding: 8px; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">My problem; however, was after a massive rally -- and notice that throughout Q4 I had big spikes in my equity only to give up more over the next sessions.-- was that the character of the market had totally changed and I was still trying to trade the same way as I did in May.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">I had several massive up days only to be holding a lot of stock and then have the market turn on me the next giving back all those gains and more. </span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Lesson No. 1.</b><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Holdable Trends arise out of low volatility environments. The buying pressure is heavily in favor of the bulls so volatility dries up.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Lesson No 2</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">After an extended rally and the market gaps up. Sell into it or raise stops. Sell into quick spikes-- they will need a lot of time to re-set-- look at DBX chart</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br /></b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Lesson No. 3 -</b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> Recognize character change. When the market goes from calm and orderly markup to wild distribution don't expect to hold for the big trade. Recognize the situation,Volatility is character change of the market. I must shorten my swing and profit goals. </span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br /></b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Lesson No. 4</b><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">When market volatility returns. Sell into spikes hard and don't rush to get back in.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">2019 trade goals:</b><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br /></b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">1.Situational Awareness -- expect chop, rising interest rates will have an effect on corporate earnings, political environment etc... Don't marry a position, don't marry an opinion.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">2. Recognize opportunity - don't fall asleep at the wheel, there will be sectors and stocks that do well -- watch them - but you don't have to be the first in the water.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">3. Manage risk, -- get your position sizes right.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">4. Manage emotions: Fomo No mo'</span>Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-9783404411808542042018-01-13T16:01:00.001-08:002018-01-14T08:12:20.712-08:00Review of Trade with Mr. X .com<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I've been a member of </span><a href="http://www.tradewithmrx.com/" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #6666cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">www.tradewithmrx.com</span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> for several months now and I was one of his earliest followers on twitter. I was very impressed by first the quality of his tweets and then his free youtube videos and I encouraged other traders to check them out. </span><br />
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-28b9e64a-f2b2-75e4-37e7-237543320a1c"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I joined his paid site the second month it came out and I've gotten a ton of emails / twitter messages from traders asking me whether I thought it was worth the $200 a month. For that reason, I thought it would be helpful to provide a review of the service and my experience with it.</span></span></div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-28b9e64a-f2b2-75e4-37e7-237543320a1c"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Initial Skepticism</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></span></div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-28b9e64a-f2b2-75e4-37e7-237543320a1c"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Experienced traders are naturally suspicious of big claims. We've all seen so many charlatans pop up at every bull market with bold claims. Despite the quality of the videos and tweets, by nature, I'm skeptical of big claims and displays of what I call "trader porn" e.g. big houses and huge trades-- Tim Sykes, Jason Bond type characters. That said, the initial videos were excellent and thought provoking so I brought them to the attention of some trader friends in the spring of last year-- you can see I expressed my skepticism in doing so back in April 2017:</span></span></div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-28b9e64a-f2b2-75e4-37e7-237543320a1c"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 10.5pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">"@[] did you watch the Mr. X videos I posted? </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-54yBOmCMw" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #428bca; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 10.5pt; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-54yBOmCMw</span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 10.5pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> He claims to have made a 100 Mill as a hedge fund manger . Obviously, internet claims are suspect, but it is fun to watch him work, he is in the "right stocks." He's repeatedly been saying he's 200% long right now with 100% in TSLA. He'll only be in 5 to 6 stocks at once."</span></span></blockquote>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-28b9e64a-f2b2-75e4-37e7-237543320a1c"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 10.5pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">As another trader recently asked for my opinion put it:</span></span></blockquote>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-28b9e64a-f2b2-75e4-37e7-237543320a1c"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">"Now I’ve been around the block for some time(35 years) as a trader and in the markets, so like @[], my radar goes off when I see an anonymous promoter in shades, with a black shirt with one too many buttons unbuttoned, producing YouTube videos from a glitzy Vegas condo and touting that he’s one of the 1% who has figured out the mysteries of the market. Add to that the fact that he was reportedly a successful hedge fund trader and has a large personal bank roll, but now he is selling retail investment services.</span></span></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">...</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Having said that, I’ve watched his public You Tube videos and he seems earnest and open. The trading information and market observations described in the public videos seem congruent with my beliefs about and experience with price action and volume. So I have been intrigued to join his site, if just for a month or two, to have access to more of his hopefully in depth videos on supply and demand and institutional sponsorship, but I have been hesitant to do so." </span></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">After being a member of his site, I can honestly say that Mr. X. is the real deal. This is some of the best education a trader can get in the market.. and I say that as someone who spent a year at the CBOE and had formal training in trading. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I think a lot of the skepticism of Mr. X's is because some traders have a misimpression about what Mr. X was actually saying and incorrectly interpreting tweets as believing that Mr. X's was suggesting that he always right. Quite the contrary, Mr. X is wrong a lot and he will freely admit that. The best traders in the world are-- they are just better at realizing when they wrong and correct much quicker than the rest of us. Mr. X cuts his losses and reverses his mistakes very quickly. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Despite my initial skepticism, Mr. X's approach was very logical and made sense to me. I was probably 65% of the way there in my own thinking and I had developed setups that would put me in the same stocks and even with similar entry points. However, I didn't really understand the market forces which caused my setups to work sometimes in a big ways and other times not at all. Mr. X explained it perfectly with the concept of maturity. You can see how it worked out very well in the trades he shared on his public twitter feed such as AAOI $60s to $100 in just a couple of weeks and why he sold at the highs at that time. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The Tradewith Mr. X Service </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">At $200 a month the price is higher than most services directed towards retail traders. Mr. X has stated that the price is a filter to steer away less serious traders so that he would have the ability to give specific and personal feed back to his members. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> My initial thought was that I would join to check it out and figured that $200, at worst, was worth it to watch the 10 + hours of the crash course videos.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="420" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/zf-4APPwB2ED20FV0Svp4wWNTEZ5FsLqeEcf7ViOcs8wc-MfS4ZV-OdgP6xqSczKL3wOXCNbJtIusAZCD3ecC3p4BnY1_DO6oqWHD_gxu0H4-Sls5xssV1u3UxWuwya0ue5NtDvk" style="border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="427" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.666666984558105px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> I'm pleased to say the service has exceeded my expectations in every way.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">What you Get</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In addition to the crash course videos there is a library of market cycles and historic winners.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Library:</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In these sections, Mr. X explains how the evidence of supply and demand would have allowed us to buy, hold, and sell the stocks. I personally do a ton of chart research in historical winning stocks and love the library. X typically covers 1 or 2 stocks a week.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">He also has an "Advance" selection where he covers other tactics such as how to identify and trade shakeouts, gaps and other material that is extremely helpful.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Watchlist</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Every week Mr. X updates a watch list A and a watch list B. In all honesty, most experienced growth oriented traders will have the many of the same stocks on their watchlist. The big difference is how he analyzes the watch list and points out all the fine details of the stock where the danger points are, how to trade it, where it could pull back and still look normal.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Portfolio</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial";"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: 14.666666984558105px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mr. X lists his positions as well as the % of his portfolio each one holds. After reading everything thing there is to read on trading and swing trading, this was a game changer how someone could hold some positions so large with such conviction. ... and then if it didn't act preciselylike it should cut it without a second of hesitation. </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Trader Alerts</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Mr. X has a private twitter feed which member get alerts when he enters or sells a position. These alerts are timely as he will often indicate before the market is opening that he plans to buy XYZ stock at the open. In other words, he is not front running an alert to move a stock like some other services do. Moreover, the stocks that X is trading are not the type of stocks that our buying will move. Rather they tend to have large floats with institutional support and not some low float garbage.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">After he takes a trade, X will usually put up a video of the reasons why he took the trade and the fine points of the chart that most traders overlook.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Emails</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Mr. X invites member questions about stocks and I have pretty regularly taken advantage of that invitation. I have always gotten prompt and detailed responses to my questions.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">What it Tradewithmrx.com is and is Not</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Trade with Mr. X is not a stock picking service where he runs some scans and calls out xzy stock is breaking out. There are 100s of such services out there but I doubt any of those traders have much conviction in their trades. I've seen X go up to 70% of his account in a single stock but explain in excruciating detail how he will manage the risk. I recognize those types of numbers will cause most retail traders's heads to spin. This not a swing trading service. I've seen him take position and cut it because for 10% gains the next day because of risk management and essentially toss the trade aside when other services are publicly bragging about nailing an 8% gain in the same stock. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Trade with Mr. X is an educational service that is aimed to teach us to be great traders. The service is directed at getting 100% gains in stocks. I knew that before I joined, what I did not realize was how much work goes into hitting the right entry. I've seen Mr. X go after the same stock 5 or 6 times to get an entry right at the boiling point. He did it with SQ-- which he took down nearly a 100% gain on a large position.One member had over 300% gains last year so its working. I personally did about 25% in the two months I've been a member despite this being a pretty rocky period in the market. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Conclusion</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I highly recommend the service. Despite the higher than average price tag, it delivers more value than other services. Tradewith Mr. X has improved my anywise and my eye for charts has gotten much better, I've improved my mental game, and I'm hitting the long ball.</span></div>
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Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-92084780662558051492018-01-13T14:27:00.004-08:002018-01-13T14:34:01.392-08:00Ode to the Home Run<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">This year I've made the following trading plan to guide me this year. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">2018 resolutions: </span><br />
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A. Possible outcomes for trades (1) small loss; (2) push; (3) huge winner. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa;"><span style="color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I can't be a home run hitter If I'm content hitting singles so I've taken the small win off the table I am perfectly willing to take a break even trade after I'm up 10 or even 20% on a stock to get a 50% or bigger gain.</span></span></span><br />
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B. No partial sales: If I'm in a huge winner, I'm not going to minimize it because I'm insecure in my trade.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Taking partial profits turns a home run into an average trade. The psychological comfort of "locking in" some profits is too costly. Every year only a few trades will account for the vast majority of the return. The other small wins and small losses cancel themselves out or are insignificant so I need to make sure that my big wins make as much money as possible. </span><br />
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C. Build positions at pullbacks to moving averages.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I need to think differently than everyone else and not be positioned with the crowd. The crowd buys obvious breakouts.</span><br />
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D. Target 100% + moves.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa;"><span style="color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">A truly leading stock should be able to at least be able double from its base. If it can't do that, it is an also ran. I will be in leading stocks based on price and volume and I must give them a chance to work.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa;"><span style="color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa;"><span style="color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I recognize that there will be times when I may need to step aside in a stock to manage risk, I will view a re-entry as a continuation of the original position. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">E. Aggressively Manage Risk.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">There's no point to hit home runs if I give up runs on defense. A break even trade after being up 20% is acceptable. A .01 loss after being up 20% is not. I've had "wins" this year already that other traders would brag about, but I've taken the position off not </span><span style="color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">to lock profit, but to manage risk. For example, not enough cushion for upcoming earnings. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa;"><span style="font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Why I shifted my philosphy and trading plan</b></span></span></span></div>
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa;"><span style="color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa;"><span style="color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">2017 was a successful year for me as I posted decent profits mostly from swing trading. I also realized that there were limitations to my approach that would keep me from being a great trader.</span></span></span><br />
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The approach I had used in 2017 was to identify strong stocks buy the breakouts using a <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7veSLkxXEOO0_A3W57fLuGFy6jcZwopk1PVHm0hlYsfHfjv3MuQ0YhUFL7CJXkd9rW2RkvuTvk6XB6SYRDcusLrZoUPLZi0c4iistF9zbVF5AIq-HXZG7v5Fzeoq0mogHGr2SOdPZMjCt/s1600/Fishhook.jpeg">fishhook</a> setup or a <a href="http://educsos.blogspot.com/2015/11/slingshot-setup-described.html">slingshot</a> (on the pullback and then swing those for gains on) Take profits on the way up.<br />
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For example, my most profitable trade (or series of trades, which combined according to my brokerage statements was a 108% return) was in AAOI:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/59KkcnUY/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="800" height="474" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/59KkcnUY/" width="640" /></a></div>
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I hit the entry perfectly (Fishhook entry) , added size and phased out. I got tons of "atta boys" from my trading friends which include some of the very best swing traders (guys that are asked to speak at national seminars). Yes, I made quite a bit of money on this trade, and on the original position I took at 63 as well that I took another $9 out of but I realized that in some ways this was a terrible approach for several reasons.<br />
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The biggest mistake was I treated this as just another trade. An AAOI type stock will come around only 4-5 times a year, had I traded it better, this stock alone should have given me triple digits on the year $30 to 100 in a liquid and holdable stock. But I only had a normal position, which I minimized by selling on the way up with partial sales. <br />
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The second problem was I fell victim to my own psychological needs. At the time the position started running, I remember thinking that I was doing a great job because I was up over 10 points and I would usually start selling with a 10% gain and now I'm up 30%+. This type of thinking is flawed. It was the fear of losing my paper gains that caused me to sell when there was no reason to.<br />
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I, like many traders, had (yes I'm using past tense) a problem holding our winners. For me, it was this need to constantly hit winning trades. We talk about our win rate, average win, average loss, % of R. I used to track that shit religiously. I would sell a stock (like AAOI and some others) simply because the numbers would look really good on my spreadsheet. <br />
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You know what looked good on my spreadsheet? A $7 point gain like this:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/MfGBhTzU/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="800" height="474" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/MfGBhTzU/" width="640" /></a></div>
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But the spreadsheet would not reflect how terrible of a trade my $7 point win in TREE was:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/oMXlVc5B/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="800" height="474" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/oMXlVc5B/" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Nonetheless, many traders talk about how important it is to hit singles. Bullshit!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Every baseball fan know that </span><a data-player-link="519317" href="http://m.mlb.com/player/519317/giancarlo-stanton" style="-webkit-text-decoration-skip: objects; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c8cee; font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; text-decoration: none;">Giancarlo Stanton</a><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"> was the home run champ with 59 </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">homers but who hit the most singles? -- Crickets. That's because no one gives a shit. <u>It's the </u></span><u>long ball<span style="font-family: inherit;"> that makes </span>legends</u><span style="font-family: inherit;">. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So while the singles </span>hitters<span style="font-family: inherit;"> are going keep celebrating their "wins", I'm swinging for the fences this year. I'll foul off dozens of pitches in the process, and I won't care. My defense will be excellent and </span>I'm<span style="font-family: inherit;"> going to continue crush the damn ball when I get my pitch.. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333;">I'll let the other guys count their singles, this year I'm tracking only my home runs. </span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333;"><b>Here's number 1:</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">I recognize this is a gambling type stock but wow did I like that chart. I sold through the $30 break for a big gain.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/h0mU2Ajx/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="800" height="474" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/h0mU2Ajx/" width="640" /></a></div>
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Good speculation,<br />
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Scot1and<br />
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<span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #14171a; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-12531635078694961942017-07-11T19:42:00.001-07:002017-07-11T19:42:41.052-07:007-11-17 Breadth<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
The 8Ema is the highest band, Still bullish but this fast Ma are tight. This will be a stock pickers market and not a rising tide raising all boats. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqlyWWWYoibHgGrEfpFg0b-8pETynYXuiuML4OtC6mBWwahNURJ17ptCjpLvwaDQTruAIlq0n9_5flHq2Dovc8nr_A6UJPLF9rGSKgz9UcH-vYKXSlFBpnKhKIUto9_sqTMM2uqKMX5cI/s1600/breadth+7-11-17.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="1312" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqlyWWWYoibHgGrEfpFg0b-8pETynYXuiuML4OtC6mBWwahNURJ17ptCjpLvwaDQTruAIlq0n9_5flHq2Dovc8nr_A6UJPLF9rGSKgz9UcH-vYKXSlFBpnKhKIUto9_sqTMM2uqKMX5cI/s640/breadth+7-11-17.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-89665258980509471972017-07-04T14:35:00.001-07:002019-02-09T12:45:53.629-08:00MY Trading Plan<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; background-color: white; color: #555555; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Why am I trading:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b></b></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;">Trading is a reflection of ourselves. We must look in the mirror and find our flaws and plan for them. <b> </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>What is my Approach:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>My beginning approach is to take advantage of power moves by using using the daily for entires and the weekly charts to determine early trends and bases:</i></span></div>
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<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i></i><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i> I will trade in the most powerful stocks as they breakout out of early base from stage 2;</i></span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i></i><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i>I Will trade IPOs;</i></span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i></i><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i>I will trade toddlers as they make new highs.</i></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>What are my Goals:</b></span></div>
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<ul>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(85, 85, 85);"><i></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i>Daily — To be prepared. To have my watch list formed and to trade from my watch list. </i></span></li>
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<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i></i><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i>Weekly— To perform broad market and sector analysis, review trades from that weekly.</i></span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><i></i></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: white;"><b><i>Monthly –</i></b></span><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i> To never let a ‘planned’ opportunity pass. To follow my trading plan without reservation. Stay consistent!</i></span></li>
</ul>
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<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;"><i></i></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: white;"><i>* </i><b><i>Yearly –</i></b></span><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i> To steadily increase my risk amount when my data tells me it is advisable to do so. To continue learning through my day-to-day activities of being in the market and through continued education. To keep trading business expenses to a minimum. To see a steadily rising equity curve!</i></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>* </i><b><i>Long Term – To make enough from trading to become financially independent. </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b></b></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>What are my Objectives:</b></span></div>
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<ol>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #555555; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;">To trade in the best stocks at the times when they offer the lowest risk entry. I will only trade in stocks that are capable of making 20-50+ moves when they advance. </span></li>
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<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #555555; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;">To ride the trade when they offer the possibility to do so.(This will depend on the broad market)</span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #555555; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; background-color: white;">To be out of the market when it is not advantageous to be in the market.</span><b style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; background-color: white;"> </b></li>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Performance Goals:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal;"><i>Performance metrics</i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>, I will seek to attain no less than a 45% win percentage, with an overall Profit Ratio of no less than 1.5. 120% a year. </i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>What Markets will I trade:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>I will focus only on stocks, options may be used for longer term trades or higher priced stocks but they will not become a critical component until I can prove I can successfully trade them.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i>MACRO and Market Considerations</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i>Reign in expectations when market turns to “Chop zone” as determined by guppy chart on ADV/DEcline (t2108) </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i>Market M monitor =+50% > 20.</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i>Tighten Stops and reduce holding time and be careful </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i>Setups will I trade:</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i>Long:</i></b></span></div>
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This is a pull back setup. Ideal entry is after a 10-15% pull back on the re-capture of the Thrust indicator. -- Re-capture of the 4EMA of the Highs. <br />
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The First Slingshot is more prone to failure than a secondary one when volume comes out. <br />
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<li><b>Fishhooks</b></li>
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Fishhook is a setup that day 1 close (usually earnings driven) produces a big volume move. The next day or 2 should sit tight and narrow, and preferably dip below the day 1 close, but not mandatory, When the stock hooks around or breaks the narrow range the buy point is triggered. </div>
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This is power. Fishhook + RCTF<br />
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<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i>I</i><b><i>POs</i></b></span></li>
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IPOs give me an edge. I track them all. Most don't or won't . I have the confidence built up by looking 100s of IPO charts spanning over a 1/2 decade. I feel I have a good Idea of what will work and what won't that I can exploit.<br />
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<i style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px;"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>a. Reclaim the Fame</i><br />
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>b. Capture the flag</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>C. move out of first dip:</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Entry rules:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;">Positions should be taken when triggered. Enter with limit orders on ask. Use 5x6ema setup if stock has broken out. </span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>On a slingshot volume is not as crucial as on a W1 / BO</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Pre-plan entries for top watches and enter with buy stop.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Where will I place my Stops:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>My stop-loss prices will always be </i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>determined prior to entry, and will be at logical major-pivot locations on the chart that I’m trading from.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Exit take profit (and/or) trail-stop rules:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>Half profit will be taken nearing a predetermined point of support/resistance, which must represent a 3:1 reward/risk ratio or 15%. Final profits will be taken after a confirmation of the end of the current trend (from chart of entry), or at blow off reversal after trending.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Risk Management rules:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>My trade risk (1R) will be up to 2% of current (daily adjusted) trading capital.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i>EARNINGS — </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>THERE IS NO HOLDING THROUGH EARNING See FUEL.</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i></i></b></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i></i></b></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/MN8i1cLt/"><b><i>https://www.tradingview.com/x/MN8i1cLt/</i></b></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><i></i></b></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Pre-market activities, or routine:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>6:30 a.m.— check overnight positions (news etc) take actions on sucker gaps. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>6:35 — meditate while coffee is being made off</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>7:—8:20 get kids ready for school, work etc..</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b></b></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>8:30 - watch initial actions. potentially take action</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b></b></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Check news, pre-market quotes</b></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal;"><b>. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Post-market activities, or routine:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>Update trade Journal spreadsheet. Post blog for trade journal Review all open trades for possible next day action. Review any closed trades to determine whether plan was followed (or not).</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>If Plan not followed— Punishment by Dollar Jar.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>What Tools will I use for my trading business:</b></span></div>
<ul>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(85, 85, 85);"><i></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i>Tc2K</i></span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i></i><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i>Interactive Brokers </i></span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i></i><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i>Google Sheets</i></span></li>
<li style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i></i><a href="http://nextbigtrade.com/"><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: white;"><i>nextbigtrade.com</i></span></a><span style="background-color: white; font-kerning: none;"><i> — Seriously a fantastic free tool.</i></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
<ul>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>Review the notes and screenshots of each trade 5-8 days after closure and after all biases and emotions have subsided. Write notes in the journal sections of the trade journal as to how future trade executions, management and exits can be improved. Bi-weekly, check spreadsheet sheet to see what sub-categories are producing positive expectancy (with frequency). Modify ‘plan’ according to updated information.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b></b></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>Discipline & Mindset notes:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;">I will abide by the (5) Fundamental Truths & “Trader” Mindset, from author Mark Douglas of “Trading in the Zone”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(85, 85, 85);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>1<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>“Anything” can happen</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>I don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>3<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>There is a random distribution between wins & losses for any given variable that defines an edge.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>4<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>An Edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>5<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>Every moment in the market is unique.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><i></i></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-kerning: none;"><b>My Golden Rules (and/or) Trading Commandments:</b></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(85, 85, 85);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>1<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>I will be disciplined every day, and in every trade.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>I will be my own trading “self”, never trading another’s plan.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>3<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>I love taking small losses.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>4<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>I will always earn the right to trade bigger.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>5<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>I am not addicted to trading just to see what happens.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>6<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>I will only trade high reward setups that have the probabilities in their favor.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>7<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>I will be a bricklayer – making the same type of trades over and over again.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>8<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>Once I find a setup, I do not hesitate; once in a trade, I do not over analyze.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>9<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>I will always keep a detailed trading log/journal and will act upon what it tells me.</i></span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);"><i><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>10<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></i></span><span style="font-kerning: none;"><i>Everything I do will be for the success of my business!</i></span></div>
Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-49114110145585490102017-05-07T17:38:00.003-07:002017-05-07T17:38:37.825-07:00Breadth improving<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-47761935767810487182017-05-04T20:23:00.002-07:002017-05-04T20:23:55.586-07:00SNAP Trades<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/I98HjGeN/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="436" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/I98HjGeN/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-85834554307402534482017-03-27T17:15:00.001-07:002017-03-27T17:24:54.209-07:003/27<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/MgLHDG0o/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="358" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/MgLHDG0o/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Took AAOI- while it was red today--turned into a beast:<br />
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<br />
AKAO:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/oPu4jRlo/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="358" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/oPu4jRlo/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
TTPH: bought range exp. both buystops hit.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/Mmbxwq2T/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="358" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/Mmbxwq2T/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
NKTR:<br />
Fishhook<br />
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<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-76308985639283401862017-03-24T13:16:00.000-07:002017-03-24T13:16:05.951-07:00slow and steady,<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0ZibmCVsx3dm5woLCqYZUWsC7QtBB2KtUIi1Fb00L2V98tvIG3yWPR1yhN75iBrgKdttp_V09zL82ldT9TFRz1i-SXQTLwn8uTnHv3XKqr5YFRWaBIMw2mb_3d3yHvPDLCet7FBaNiyk/s1600/return+march.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0ZibmCVsx3dm5woLCqYZUWsC7QtBB2KtUIi1Fb00L2V98tvIG3yWPR1yhN75iBrgKdttp_V09zL82ldT9TFRz1i-SXQTLwn8uTnHv3XKqr5YFRWaBIMw2mb_3d3yHvPDLCet7FBaNiyk/s640/return+march.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-12102410510562740682017-03-22T07:32:00.001-07:002017-03-22T07:32:21.425-07:00AAH SNAP<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/gbcBfQnW/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="394" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/gbcBfQnW/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-76059651358111007912017-03-21T20:46:00.001-07:002017-03-21T20:46:38.823-07:00All CASHFor the first time in as long as I can remember, I went completely to cash. My market breadth indicators have told me we are in the chop zone. In the chop zone, I shortened holding periods and took profits quickly.<br />
<br />
My indicators just went to the sell. I'm out of all long positions although I did enter a Long UVXY position (volatility) at the end of the day. Regardless of how this shakes out this market is going to need some time to digest before it is able to push higher. <br />
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<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-67419993290434875122017-02-26T09:00:00.001-08:002017-02-26T09:00:00.627-08:002/24 CLOSED:<br />
AAOI:<br />
Best trade of the year!<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/dBTNDtcF/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/dBTNDtcF/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Then a lot of fades:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/FLTeNkk7/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/FLTeNkk7/" width="640" /></a></div>
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CEMP:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/XhCFC7L1/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/XhCFC7L1/" width="640" /></a></div>
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CARA:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/n4daJlGg/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/n4daJlGg/" width="640" /></a></div>
CALA:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/X6x73Cix/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/X6x73Cix/" width="640" /></a></div>
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Lottery ticket:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/ffY1WrfQ/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/ffY1WrfQ/" width="640" /></a></div>
PLX:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/5d5ssnCZ/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/5d5ssnCZ/" width="640" /></a></div>
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Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-3646923197470347322017-02-23T17:45:00.002-08:002017-02-24T06:00:18.385-08:002/23AAOI -- wow pure power. Sold trimmed another portion off in after hours at 41.80<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
New position<br />
AINC -- If this wasn't such a thin stock -- this would be a 10/10 setup for many many traders. However this is thin, very thin. -- Just 6 months ago I would have ignored this type of stock. but any stock that can go from 25 to 160 in 2 months should have your attention.<br />
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It now looks like it is breaking out of a stage 1 base and into stage 2.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/iQoPKeei/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/iQoPKeei/" width="640" /></a></div>
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This was a similar stock I traded. Although I chickened out pulling the trigger when it first crossed the 30week, I did buy that pull back and made a $16 gain. It would go much higher.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/ghREoLUj/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/ghREoLUj/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
of Course there is this one:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/zx4rvscH/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/zx4rvscH/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-53328649153203297912017-02-21T19:45:00.000-08:002017-02-21T19:48:51.319-08:002/21Closed:<br />
GRVY:<br />
This GRVY trades was one of my most profitable trades this year to date.. This one went for over 25% in a short period -- (and would keep going, but can I complain, not really) $2,243 on this round. The previous went for 880 so over $3k on this stock.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/6RjgnS03/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="442" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/6RjgnS03/" width="640" /></a></div>
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AAOI Closed 1/2:<br />
This stock is also one my most profitable + over $1,800 on closed 1/2. I had great patience in letting this develop but it is now getting over bought. And it makes sense to lock some $$ in here and raise the stop on the remainder.<br />
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<b>IPI trimmed 25%</b><br />
<b>So purdy but I was too aggressive here, So I need to make sure to always protect the downside. I banged out a quarter of my position for a 5% gain and look to ride the rest as far as I can. This one has 10 X potential </b><br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/qCb6jTJ3/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="442" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/qCb6jTJ3/" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>CALA:</b><br />
Took a small loss here. When I entered this trade, I was concerned that the setup was "too good" and there were too many eyes on it, meaning that its chances for failure were higher. But If it ran and I missed it I would have been pissed because it had the power profile. But because I anticipated the breakout and then added into it, I was able to keep a tight stop and lost only $127 here. <br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/DYlJT2LD/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="442" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/DYlJT2LD/" width="640" /></a></div>
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New buys:<br />
Shows some earnings power ripping from 12 to 14 in 3 days.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7eV0iRk/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="442" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7eV0iRk/" width="640" /></a></div>
But the weekly is why I'm very interested in this stock: It has ripped to ATHs on volume and now consolidated after testing the previous ATH on a pull back-- VERY GOOD SIGN<br />
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NEW BUY IPO<br />
JNCE: Only 6.5 mm float BOOYA.<br />
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Lots of power out of the gate = wait for first pull back and take around the pivot. Not pleased that it faded but we shall see, If the IPO trade is back on (and there are signs that it is) this will go<br />
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JELD: Looked like it was breakout out of this first base, but not a great finish. </div>
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SEDG:</div>
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Fishhook, sector strong, stage 2 transitions</div>
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Would prefer longer bases but..whole sector is coming on with volume. </div>
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<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-23523881918217316882017-02-18T13:53:00.001-08:002017-02-18T13:58:58.313-08:00Year To Date Trading assessment.I'm aware that I've benefited from a good market but my YTD number is decent:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBZ7Kirk9cip1tz4MvQllo9CAnCI62wv7QQpdd1VFiq6en0YvZX_RiAf0hPVX3KRID-aKWuwnDMWejQ_HPblhkP6_cMGKA2lyo7ZHz2i7uBW1Ry92rewbzmkACwux3O0ihlOHJaqkdDOg/s1600/YTD.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBZ7Kirk9cip1tz4MvQllo9CAnCI62wv7QQpdd1VFiq6en0YvZX_RiAf0hPVX3KRID-aKWuwnDMWejQ_HPblhkP6_cMGKA2lyo7ZHz2i7uBW1Ry92rewbzmkACwux3O0ihlOHJaqkdDOg/s640/YTD.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
That breaks down to a 46% win rate, (24 to 28 with 13 B/es) which is about what I need to be at. <br />
<br />
So I'm doing some things right. <br />
<br />
First, let's cover those. This year I've narrowed my focus on power stocks coming out of stage 1 to stage 2. I've been able to identify the most powerful stocks. Here's a few that I've caught.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/2wd7rbKU/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="526" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/2wd7rbKU/" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/gEnUuE3P/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="526" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/gEnUuE3P/" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/lvjLG0Wb/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="526" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/lvjLG0Wb/" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/iKYZVFPn/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="524" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/iKYZVFPn/" width="640" /></a></div>
AAOI == Best planned out trade and most profitable open position:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/YZ5IFvVC/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="524" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/YZ5IFvVC/" width="640" /></a></div>
GKOS:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/CwpwKf6B/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="524" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/CwpwKf6B/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
So with trades like those, why am I only up 10%. My discipline has not been what I've needed it to be. I've entered shorts (which is not my setup)., I've chased low dollar stocks with big positions.<br />
<br />
And taken trades like this, which at 1.7% equity is my biggest loss so far this year. As I look at this chart, it is readily apparent it was not in stage 2's advance stage. In other words, the trade should never have been taken. I then took a 200 share position in to earnings, (they guided lower but not a big deal) I got a cheaper price and a good entry on more shares and then the trade started to look like it would work, and in fact I was positive on the trade. Until it faded and I got hit with a 1.7% loss. Fortunately, a 1.7% loss is relatively small so at least I'm managing risk in that manner and not getting crushed.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/GC2GywZF/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="524" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/GC2GywZF/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Also, I've had a number of trades where I've picked up large gains, only to see the stock fade and I exit for a wash. I need to re-commit to selling a portion off into the thrust in all but the best stocks.<br />
<br />
So at this point, I'll grade myself as follows:<br />
<br />
<b>Stock Selection: </b> -<b>A </b> Tthe stocks I'm entering are powerful stocks and are the stocks that are most capable of making huge moves. <br />
<b>Entries, B+ </b>-- could be earlier but I'm planning the entires very well.<br />
<b>Exits B </b>-- need to consider partials, and trails more frequently<br />
<b>Discipline C+</b> -- still prone to style drift, and adding more shares, in a stock that sells off and taking too much size initially . Have avoided big losses by using stops. Avoided using others stock picks.<br />
<br />
<b>Recommitment for March: </b><br />
<b>Direction, Long until stops working</b><br />
<b>Setups: Stage 2 Only, Slingshots, Fishhooks, and weekly breakouts. </b><br />
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<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-70279421631289374022017-02-17T20:08:00.002-08:002017-02-17T20:08:58.523-08:00Life begins at the end of your comfort zone. I did it. I quit my job yesterday and have started a new company. I've traded a corner office for a home office. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Trading. Some good. AAOI and GRVy continue to rip higher.<br />
<br />
CYBR -- took a loss., my biggest of the year at 1.5%. equity It was a trade with too many mistakes. Held through earnings, bought more, and didn't get out with a small gain when it was clear this was not in play to go higher right now. Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-23213684862976033272017-02-09T18:03:00.000-08:002017-02-10T05:24:41.011-08:002/9 busy dayI've been busy with some other work things so I'm a few days behind in the journal. The spreadsheet has been kept up to date.<br />
<br />
Big day today.<br />
<br />
LOXO Break out from a liner setup. Although I prefer the pull back setup this had a lot of power in the past and there was no way I wanted to miss a b/o attempt in this one.<br />
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Took 1/2 off already and we'll see how far we can push this.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/bghCbjOE/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="438" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/bghCbjOE/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
ETRM:<br />
Total LT stock but it fits the power profile. Eased into this w/ 2 buys. <br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/U5HIC4vH/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="438" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/U5HIC4vH/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>ETRM 5 min </b><br />
Good example of what I look for on any time frame. The first slingshot usually fails if it is too soon after the initial thrust. Its the second or 3rd that have the best probability of success. 7.82 entry on this one.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/owQWZhNI/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="438" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/owQWZhNI/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
SKWKS:<br />
Took a position just short of 93. looks to be breaking range after a weekly breakout after about a year of basing.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/gVb4IeCF/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="438" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/gVb4IeCF/" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
CYBR:<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/gliKW5xM/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="438" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/gliKW5xM/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
HBM: Still consolidating, Banged it out as there is better setups and this one is bigger float than I like.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/Am7J9jwI/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="438" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/Am7J9jwI/" width="640" /></a></div>
GKOS: They don't get much better than this one. but after 8 days, I'd be pushing my luck.<br />
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<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/tRlMrZ32/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="438" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/tRlMrZ32/" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3899544110327724988.post-51743682688424842022017-02-06T19:01:00.002-08:002017-02-06T19:06:08.264-08:002/6Market was pretty neutral. But got a decent gains in two new positions on slingshots.<br />
<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PiR_F7UEVWrj53cb01Lbc42GSzZLnQfGcVF-HlVB0no/edit#gid=0">Trade Spread Sheet</a> - Holding a fair share of open gains. Net liq. is approaching 10% on the year.<br />
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<b>Closed:</b><br />
My trail on CRK was hit-- Still a great trade. Entered 10.05<br />
1/2 Profits taken as high as 13.30<br />
Remainder 11.87<br />
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CNAT:<br />
Re-Entry after a pull back. -- some power is shown.<br />
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GLBS:<br />
Slingshot triggered. Entered @8.74<br />
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<br />Scot1andhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05560353521307181651noreply@blogger.com0