INVN: Swimming with gators.

This was stupid.  I bet on a reversal of a strong down move.  I survived buying 500 at 17.80 which I traded out of for $140 gain.   The risk to reward wasn't great on this trade.  I pushed out of the entire position because I didn't want to hold it into the weekend.  

Triage:  I think I was pissed at myself for letting this turn from a profit to a loss earlier this week and I wanted my money back.   This was an impulse trade (The elder impulse system would expressly would forbid it), and I should not have taken the trade.  That being said, I made money but I cannot count this as a good trade because I broke my entry rules.  I was in for 1% R which very nearly got hit. Again,too much for this type of "falling knife" trade.

 

CORN: Shucks

And I closed most of my short. and then limit up today: Stopped out on the last portion for .58 gain.

I re entered the position short on 200 shares at 38.84 with a stop at the day's high.  I'm less confident in this move now after such a strong move reversal.  I'll look to take profits quick.

CORN: Taking some Profits

With INVN and WFM fresh in my mind, I figured I needed to take some profits before another winning trade turns into a loss.  This has been crushed. I bought  300 of my 400 shares back in at  37.97 for a $678 profit.  Still holding another $264.50 of gains.  I'm moving the stop on that to $38.84, to preserve gains.

On a weekly it could fall a lot farther if it doesn't find some support soon:

Goldman Giveth and Goldman Taketh

Goldman Sach's upgrade of LNKD gave me one of my best trades on the month.    

Today, it downgraded WFM:

I was stopped out at 82.28 for a $275 loss.  This trade had been working extremely well as I bought of the low but then Goldman Sachs down graded the stock, causing it to gap down.  It appeared to bounce at 82.26.  (yea basically I got the worst entry and the worst exit)   I wanted to bang out the stock at the open but I wasn't in front of a screen.  

Trade Summary:  Shit happens!   This had been working and moving up in an orderly manner.  I would have faulted myself if I didn't sell a portion after a big move but that didn't happen here.  I kept the stop and damage to a minimum. 

NEW ORDER: AMGN

I'm liking this chart.   A nice flag after a trend.  I have a buy stop  at 68.10 which is just above the recent high.  I think this could make a move if it gets in action.  And I'm buying at the 26 EMA 

INVN, shakout

The MMs jumped right over my stop and sank the stock.  It rallied after hitting the 26 ema, which also marks the highs from the past rally.  I added another 100 at 19.67


Update:  So that didn't work well.  They sank this one and I'm out for a loss at 18.90.  loss of $258 on the position, which sucks after being up over 2 points.  

Lesson: I don't mind the loss on adding at the 26 ema. I do mind that my initial stop didn't get filled.  More attention to the type of order in fast moving stocks is necessary!

One of those days

REE moved with the other Rare earths.  Huge volume but again  it couldn't close over the 6.50.  I sold another Apr 6. put for .35, to generate some cash.  If it falls below 6, It will effectively let me purchase my short stock back at 5.65.

INVN:  As I noted yesterday, there was a good chance of it making a pull back as reflected by the doji candle and close below the open.  It pulled back today hard.  5.03%.  That's the problem with Momo stocks.  I should have considered selling into the big move.  Anyway, my stop is still in place and the 10 EMA  has held.   Over the past month that EMA has been the  floor of this stock.

WFM:
A Small pull back after a big reversal move.  No worries yet.

CORN:  Today wasn't all bad.  My Corn short, which is my largest position kept falling and closed at the low.  It took out the bottom at looks to fall to at least $38.5 before next support level.

Since CORN tracks the commodity, the chart of the actual Corn futures also closed at a low.  But is more in the range of support than the ETF.  I like that the Force and the MACD are dropping like stones.  I would have liked greater volume.

BA:  This is becoming a long term short as it won't break out to stop me out.   There is huge divergence and despite Market in Rally mode, BA has been stuck.  EMAs are flat.   Eventually, it has to go one way or the other.

QIHU: Spread closed

I closed my position in QIHU last week for a loss of $591.10.   The loss was within my risk tolerances but for an option trade I should have adopted a smaller risk profile on this one.   I wisely hedged the position once it started to move against me.  But I probably would have been better off hedging with stock instead of shorting the 17.5 puts with a lesser amount.

This was a stock that I fell victim for the anticipated "home run" as there were numerous articles claiming this is a fraud.

Anyway the stock just went parabolic.  However, It's one to watch because there is divergence on this move and lower volume.  That being said, I'm not going to stand on the tracks of a freight train and hope it slows down.   If I decide to short it will be on the next spike following a pull back.  If it cannot push the MACD and the RSI shows a divergence then and only then will a short position look attractive.

INVN: Bears making a stand?

INVN has been a nice trade so far.  Today, the stock closed below its open, which may be a bear sign. I moved my stop up to an itm position.  I'd like to think this will still run but I can't let a profitable trade turn negative.

SLV: stopped out

SLV hit the stop.  Closed out for over $1.50 a share profit.  This looks like it is going range bound I think there is a strong possibility of another run tomorrow.  Anyway, I'm not letting profits turn to losses. 

This would have been better if I had sold more short sooner.

INVN: position update

This one is looking great.  A nice breakout after consolidation on some decent volume.  I took my initial position on a breakout,  which I don't like to do with any size.  I was able to get a nice exit on that position and then purchase on a pull back at $19.79.  Now I have a nice entry to let then thing run.

SLV: Tightening Stops

On the weekly I have a nice entry but the channel is only mildly down with some major sell offs and then an up trend.  This has now ticked two red weeks without the major sell off.

On the Daily we have a doji down to low 30s with a bounce.  Still below the EMs but there's still a change of a rally up to the 13 EMA.  I'm going to tighten stops here.

New Position: WFM

I like the pattern of what has happened once this pulls back between the 13 and the 26 emas.    I have some hesitation that the impulse is still red but because the stock has rallied after hitting the 26 and is now at  a high of the day, I'm going to take a small position with a stop at today's low.

Bought the days high so a 0.0% entry grade.  But, this is a bet that the trend continues and I needed to see a bounce.  So I would have rather bought the high after a bounce than the low and hope for a bounce.  

JO: Missed it

JO  goes in the missed it category.  My order didn't get filled because my broker didn't have shares available to short.  IF they were available this would have been a great trade 5% breakdown with a close at the low.  I could have just had the order for the coffee futures, but I'm staying away from futures for the time being.  Still a pat on the back for seeing the pattern

SLV: Closer to breakdown

SLV made it's lowest close since I began shorting it.  It still held 30 but I think there's a good change it will go below that.

Corn Update

This certainly looks like it wants to break down. But then it bounced where it has put in bottoms in the past.

Closed: Lnkd

LNKD had a huge move today. I wasn't about to get greedy. It gapped over resistance and kept going. I gladly sold into this move. I sold some in the 98 range and some over 100. Home run!

New Orders: CORN

Weekly impulse went red and below EMAs

Daily shows a nice break lower after a failed breakout.  The range is tight, which allows for a bigger position.  Short order 40.24 with a stop at 41.81

LNKD: order filled

Order filled on LNKD.  Wonderful reversal after hitting the 26 EMA.  That buy zone has fit this stock very nicely.

Order: LNKD

Looking for LNKD to rally

Weekly: consolidating after nice 5 week run.

Daily:  has pulled back to the 13 EMA.    The plan is to unload 1/3 of the position near resistance at 95 a stop at 85.    This has a shot a retesting highs at 115.

Update: SLV, BA

SLV has bounced up to the 50 MA, the 13 EMA looks like it will cross that 50 day with one more down day.

Other than that my stop was moved to ITM, If stopped out I'll make a small profit but I'm okay with that.

BA: Continues to tick up into the resistance area.  The RSI Is roughly where it has topped out.  There's still a bit of room before my stop so we'll see if it can continue to push higher.

Update: INVN

INVN, Interesting Day.  There was a large gap up this morning pre-market which hit my sell order at 21.73  This was the HOD.

It then sold off and picked up my pull back order at 19.79  before jumping ahead a bit.   

New Orders

This ETF is supposed to track Coffee. Coffee has been in a heavy down trend.  I have a sell stop order at 44.11 below the low of this consolidation area, but low enough that I gave some extra ticks to avoid a false move (hopeful).  I'm hopeful that it acts the consolidation last month, which broke hard to the down side.  

For reference: Here's the weekly spot coffee price.  The 200 week MA may provide some support but other than that it could fall another .30c

INVN:

This stock is frustrating to me.  I had a  a sell order at 21.73.  one cent above the high.  It then sold off.  The sell off was needed after yesterday's 8% move.   I'll hope to fill a lower limit order on a pull back.  But taking some profits before that pull back would have been nice.

BA: Update

BA on the weekly does not show much change a quick red bar and then a blue bar back in to the consolidation area.

On the Daily: the sell off widened the BBs by a bit but they are still pretty tight.  My original stock has stayed in place.  Today's move showed a doji, which would suggest that there is some indecision as it heads back into the resistance/consolidation area.   One of two theories should be considered: (1) that the dip might have attracted some new buyers that would enable a breakout; or (2) the sellers will sell this down again.

  I think there's a pretty good chance this gets sold.  However, the broader market is still strong and I'm not calling a top.  Depending on how my other positions look tomorrow I may add to the position, but keep the stop the same.

INVN

What could have been.  I just missed the stock on the low.  I had a break out order to buy at 20.97 .  That got filled.  I would have hoped that It would have consolidated first, getting hit near the HOD was probably not a great trade because the move already happened.  Anyway, I remain bullish on this.  I just would have liked a full position to be on much lower. 

MCP

Traded out of the hedge.  The Short call is almost done.  It should expire worthless but there's a day to go

Watch: INVN

This one looks interesting hit a high with a minor pull back.  I have an order to buy if it dips and another order if it breaks out to a new high

MCP: Spread trade

With 2 days left MCP atm calls were trading for a .78 premium.  I sold that short with a hedge of 50 shares long, which I picked up on a spike.

This one doesn't have great risk to reward.  I will look to close the position out as the Volatility crush comes over the next 2 days.

Chart looks nice for a long entry on a pull back to 29.

SLV: sold below 50 DMA

Yesterday, I was looking for SLV to break its 50 day moving average.  It did so today and closed well below for a nice 3.07% move.  I covered 25% of the position at 31.88 and have moved my stop on the remaining portion.

SLV:

This short appears to be working, after bouncing briefly it is heading back down putting me back in the money in the process.  I need a definitive break of the 50 DMA.   But this one looks like it wants to go lower.

REE: still moving

Sold off after pushing into resistance at 6.50.  In for another 100 at 6.30 by selling Apr 4 call.

ree

Update: The good, the bad, and the ugly

The Good:  My order to short BA got filled and then stock fell pretty nice.  I'll watch this for a continuation move.

The Bad:  After initially making a strong move in my favor,  SLV continued its bounce off the channel.  My entry into the position was decent. my expectations for the size of the move probably weren't.  I had nearly  a 10% drop from my initial short.  Anyway,  My position just went red by a bit, but I have over .80 before my stop is hit.   If I'm right that this is a complete breakdown I'll be fine.

The last two days have made me rethink the cascade entry strategy I used.  Had I hit SLV with  a larger number of shares on the initial sale, I would already have closed out portion of the position for profits.  Instead, I continued to add to my position as it went it my favor making me susceptible to going red on a bounce, which happened.  

 My view off the trade has not changed, however.  The move to 36.44 was weak.  On the weekly is shows up as a kangaroo tail top.   Impulse is blue on both weekly and daily.  

The Ugly:  Ree moved up 20.35% because MCP bought out a rare earth processor, which caused speculation that REE would be the next buyout.     I'm not buying.  It's big move off a signal that hadn't suggested a bottom.   My inclination is that this will fade.  I shorted another 50 shares at 5.99.   a 79% entry grade.   However, this was a reactionary trade, which means I probably should not have entered it today.  it is possible that this trades upwards if MCP does and I probably could get a better entry by waiting.    Maybe 6.50 from the chart.  It will be interesting to see if the bearish MACD divergence continues, which showed a clear top in the beginning of February.

Update

Not much action today,  SLV traded up but nowhere near my stop.  REE was flat.  Market rebounded without much enthusiasm.  I'm looking at entering a few shorts of stocks that look week.  I placed an order for BA

BA sold off hard below moving averages on the sell off earlier this week only to rebound up to moving average.  This looks like a good risk to reward trade as the stock has traded flat for a month.  I have a stop at the year high.

The weekly impulse shows a stock that is essentially in a sideways channel with the stock towards the high end of the channel.  The impulse is blue allowing short positions to be initiated.

SLV: Added more

3rd entry on SLV.  I went short the bounce towards the end of the day and scored an 82% on today's entry.  Stop on the entire position at 34.01.  Risk = .25R    Target 30 to start unloading.   Then ride the remainder to mid 20s

The COT reports that the commercial traders are becoming increasingly short.

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm

DIA: Stopped Out

Ran the trend for over 20 points!!    I used the 26 EMA as the stop and there was a clear break on volume, which stopped me out.   It may be a shakeout but I don't think so as there was bearish divergence towards the end of the trend. Today showed the highest negative level on the MACD in two months.