Reversals of Fortune: XCO, CORN

I've been having a great run.  But that doesn't mean every trade has gone well.  I was stopped out of XCO today for a small loss, and saw a substantial amounts  of my CORN profits  evaporate.

XCO had so much potential.  I bought 5.85 range and saw a jump to 6.60, which faded back into consolidation area.  As with many failed breakouts, XCO then broke out of the consolidation zone the other way.  The reversal was triggered by a downgrade and a $4.00 price target. My stop at 5.40 was hit and a small loss was taken on the trade less than -.05 R.   I was only on 500 shares and position this trade in hopes that it might make a multi-week / month move.  My premise failed and I gladly took my loss.

Corn.  This has been one that I have tracked for a while now.  In at avg. 33.84.  I've had big hopes for catching a multi-month move.  I'm no longer optimistic as today's crop report predicted a robust harvest.  Another reversal. 35.49 to 34.34.   The position is still profitable and trades above the 50 MA. But another reversal and back to consolidation.  If I do not see immediate improvement on Monday.  I will bang it out.

Stops-- an actual example of HFT slayings

Rethinking stops has caused me not to leave stops.  Here we have CORN selling off 10% hitting a low of 31.08.  People on message boards, twitter, stock twits have complained heir stops got hit some at substantial losses.  This 10% move lasted  mere seconds but it wiped out numerous stops. 

This appears to be the same type of algorithmic trading that caused the flash crash  due to HFT.   I'm convinced that especially in thinly traded markets stop orders should not be entered.  The approach of using stops only if closing below the price it likely the approach I will take from now on.

CORN: Shucks

And I closed most of my short. and then limit up today: Stopped out on the last portion for .58 gain.

I re entered the position short on 200 shares at 38.84 with a stop at the day's high.  I'm less confident in this move now after such a strong move reversal.  I'll look to take profits quick.

CORN: Taking some Profits

With INVN and WFM fresh in my mind, I figured I needed to take some profits before another winning trade turns into a loss.  This has been crushed. I bought  300 of my 400 shares back in at  37.97 for a $678 profit.  Still holding another $264.50 of gains.  I'm moving the stop on that to $38.84, to preserve gains.

On a weekly it could fall a lot farther if it doesn't find some support soon:

One of those days

REE moved with the other Rare earths.  Huge volume but again  it couldn't close over the 6.50.  I sold another Apr 6. put for .35, to generate some cash.  If it falls below 6, It will effectively let me purchase my short stock back at 5.65.

INVN:  As I noted yesterday, there was a good chance of it making a pull back as reflected by the doji candle and close below the open.  It pulled back today hard.  5.03%.  That's the problem with Momo stocks.  I should have considered selling into the big move.  Anyway, my stop is still in place and the 10 EMA  has held.   Over the past month that EMA has been the  floor of this stock.

WFM:
A Small pull back after a big reversal move.  No worries yet.

CORN:  Today wasn't all bad.  My Corn short, which is my largest position kept falling and closed at the low.  It took out the bottom at looks to fall to at least $38.5 before next support level.

Since CORN tracks the commodity, the chart of the actual Corn futures also closed at a low.  But is more in the range of support than the ETF.  I like that the Force and the MACD are dropping like stones.  I would have liked greater volume.

BA:  This is becoming a long term short as it won't break out to stop me out.   There is huge divergence and despite Market in Rally mode, BA has been stuck.  EMAs are flat.   Eventually, it has to go one way or the other.