Tuesday, July 11, 2017

7-11-17 Breadth

The 8Ema is the highest band,  Still bullish but this fast Ma are tight.  This will be a stock pickers market and not a rising tide raising all boats.  


Tuesday, July 4, 2017

MY Trading Plan

Why am I trading:

Trading is a reflection of ourselves.  We must look in the mirror and find our flaws and plan for them.  


What is my Approach:

My beginning approach is to take advantage of power moves  by using using the daily for entires and the weekly charts to determine early trends and bases:
  • I will trade in the most powerful stocks as they breakout out of early base from stage 2;
  • I Will trade IPOs;
  • I will trade toddlers as they make new highs.


What are my Goals:

  • Daily — To be prepared.  To have my watch list formed and to trade from my watch list.  
  • Weekly— To perform broad market and sector analysis, review trades from that weekly.
  • Monthly – To never let a ‘planned’ opportunity pass. To follow my trading plan without reservation. Stay consistent!
  • * Yearly – To steadily increase my risk amount when my data tells me it is advisable to do so. To continue learning through my day-to-day activities of being in the market and through continued education. To keep trading business expenses to a minimum. To see a steadily rising equity curve!
* Long Term – To make enough from trading to become financially independent. 

What are my Objectives:

  1. To trade in the best stocks at the times when they offer the lowest risk entry. I will only trade in stocks that are capable of making 20-50+ moves when they advance. 
  1. To ride the trade when they offer the possibility to do so.(This will depend on the broad market)
  2. To be out of the market when it is not advantageous to be in the market. 

Performance Goals:

Performance metrics, I will seek to attain no less than a 45% win percentage, with an overall Profit Ratio of no less than 1.5.  120% a year. 

What Markets will I trade:

I will focus only on stocks, options may be used for longer term trades or higher priced stocks but they will not become a critical component until I can prove I can successfully trade them.

MACRO and Market Considerations

Reign in expectations when market turns to “Chop zone” as determined by guppy chart on ADV/DEcline (t2108) 


Market M monitor =+50% > 20.
Tighten Stops and reduce holding time and be careful 


Setups will I trade:
Long:
  • Week 1 breakout — 

  • Slingshots
This is a pull back setup.  Ideal entry is after a 10-15% pull back on the re-capture of the Thrust indicator. --  Re-capture of the 4EMA of the Highs.

The First Slingshot is more prone to failure than a secondary one when volume comes out.


  • Fishhooks
Fishhook is a setup that day 1 close (usually earnings driven) produces a big volume move.  The next day or 2 should sit tight and narrow, and preferably dip below the day 1 close, but not mandatory,  When the stock hooks around or breaks the narrow range the buy point is triggered. 



This is power.  Fishhook + RCTF







  • IPOs
IPOs give me an edge.  I track them all. Most don't or won't .  I have the confidence built up by looking 100s of IPO charts spanning over a 1/2 decade.   I feel I have a good Idea of what will work and what won't that I can exploit.

a. Reclaim the Fame





b. Capture the flag
C. move out of first dip:


Entry rules:
Positions should be taken when triggered.  Enter with limit orders on ask.  Use 5x6ema setup if stock has broken out. 

On a slingshot volume is not as crucial as on a W1 / BO

Pre-plan entries for top watches and enter with buy stop.


Where will I place my Stops:
My stop-loss prices will always be 
determined prior to entry, and will be at logical major-pivot locations on the chart that I’m trading from.

Exit take profit (and/or) trail-stop rules:

Half profit will be taken nearing a predetermined point of support/resistance, which must represent a 3:1 reward/risk ratio or 15%.  Final profits will be taken after a confirmation of the end of the current trend (from chart of entry), or at blow off reversal after trending.

Risk Management rules:

My trade risk (1R) will be up to 2% of current (daily adjusted) trading capital.

EARNINGS — 

THERE IS NO HOLDING THROUGH EARNING See FUEL.




Pre-market activities, or routine:

6:30 a.m.— check overnight positions (news etc) take actions on sucker gaps. 
6:35 — meditate while coffee is being made off
7:—8:20 get kids ready for school, work etc..

8:30 - watch initial actions.   potentially take action


Check news, pre-market quotes

Post-market activities, or routine:

Update trade Journal spreadsheet. Post blog for trade journal Review all open trades for possible next day action. Review any closed trades to determine whether plan was followed (or not).

If Plan not followed— Punishment by Dollar Jar.

What Tools will I use for my trading business:
  • Tc2K
  • Interactive Brokers 
  • Google Sheets
  • nextbigtrade.com — Seriously a fantastic free tool.

  • Review process:
Review the notes and screenshots of each trade 5-8 days after closure and after all biases and emotions have subsided. Write notes in the journal sections of the trade journal as to how future trade executions, management and exits can be improved. Bi-weekly, check spreadsheet sheet to see what sub-categories are producing positive expectancy (with frequency). Modify ‘plan’ according to updated information.


Discipline & Mindset notes:
I will abide by the (5) Fundamental Truths & “Trader” Mindset, from author Mark Douglas of “Trading in the Zone”.

1 “Anything” can happen
2 I don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3 There is a random distribution between wins & losses for any given variable that defines an edge.
4 An Edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5 Every moment in the market is unique.

My Golden Rules (and/or) Trading Commandments:
1 I will be disciplined every day, and in every trade.
2 I will be my own trading “self”, never trading another’s plan.
3 I love taking small losses.
4 I will always earn the right to trade bigger.
5 I am not addicted to trading just to see what happens.
6 I will only trade high reward setups that have the probabilities in their favor.
7 I will be a bricklayer – making the same type of trades over and over again.
8 Once I find a setup, I do not hesitate; once in a trade, I do not over analyze.
9 I will always keep a detailed trading log/journal and will act upon what it tells me.

10 Everything I do will be for the success of my business!

Monday, March 27, 2017

3/27


Took AAOI- while it was red today--turned into a beast:

AKAO:

TTPH: bought range exp.  both buystops hit.

NKTR:
Fishhook



Tuesday, March 21, 2017

All CASH

For the first time in as long as I can remember, I went completely to cash.  My market breadth indicators have told me we are in the chop zone. In the chop zone, I shortened holding periods and took profits quickly.

My indicators just went to the sell.  I'm out of all long positions although I did enter a Long UVXY position (volatility) at the end of the day.  Regardless of how this shakes out this market is going to need some time to digest before it is able to push higher.


Sunday, February 26, 2017

2/24

CLOSED:
AAOI:
Best trade of the year!

Then a lot of fades:

CEMP:

CARA:
CALA:

Lottery ticket:
PLX:

Thursday, February 23, 2017

2/23

AAOI -- wow pure power.  Sold trimmed another portion off in after hours at 41.80


Tuesday, February 21, 2017

2/21

Closed:
GRVY:
This GRVY trades was one of my most profitable trades this year to date..  This one went for over 25% in a short period -- (and would keep going, but can I complain, not really)  $2,243 on this round. The previous went for 880 so over $3k on this stock.

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Year To Date Trading assessment.

I'm aware that I've benefited from a good market but my YTD number is decent:


That breaks down to a 46% win rate, (24 to 28 with 13 B/es) which is about what I need to be at.

So I'm doing some things right.

First, let's cover those.  This year I've narrowed my focus on power stocks coming out of stage 1 to stage 2.  I've been able to identify the most powerful stocks.  Here's a few that I've caught.




AAOI == Best planned out trade and most profitable open position:
GKOS:

So with trades like those, why am I only up 10%.  My discipline has not been what I've needed it to be. I've entered shorts (which is not my setup).,  I've chased low dollar stocks with big positions.

And taken trades like this, which at 1.7% equity is my biggest loss so far this year.  As I look at this chart, it is readily apparent it was not in stage 2's advance stage.  In other words, the trade should never have been taken.   I then took a 200 share position in to earnings, (they guided lower but not a big deal) I got a cheaper price and a good entry on more shares and then the trade started to look like it would work, and in fact I was positive on the trade.  Until it faded and I got hit with a 1.7% loss.  Fortunately,  a 1.7% loss is relatively small so at least I'm managing risk in that manner and not getting crushed.


Also, I've had a number of trades where I've picked up large gains, only to see the stock fade and I exit for a wash.  I need to re-commit to selling a portion off into the thrust in all but the best stocks.

So at this point, I'll grade myself as follows:

Stock Selection:  -A   Tthe stocks I'm entering are powerful stocks and are the stocks that are most capable of making huge moves.
Entries, B+  -- could be earlier but I'm planning the entires very well.
Exits B -- need to consider partials, and trails more frequently
Discipline C+ -- still prone to style drift,  and adding more shares, in a stock that sells off and taking too much size initially .  Have avoided big losses by using stops. Avoided using others stock picks.

Recommitment for March:  
Direction,  Long until stops working
Setups:  Stage 2 Only,   Slingshots, Fishhooks, and weekly breakouts. 







Friday, February 17, 2017

Life begins at the end of your comfort zone.

I did it.  I quit my job  yesterday and have started a new company.  I've traded a corner office for a home office.  




Trading.  Some good.  AAOI and GRVy continue to rip higher.

CYBR -- took a loss., my biggest of the year at 1.5%. equity   It was a trade with too many mistakes. Held through earnings, bought more, and didn't get out with a small gain when it was clear this was not in play to go higher right now.

Thursday, February 9, 2017

2/9 busy day

I've been busy with some other work things so I'm a few days behind in the journal.  The spreadsheet has been kept up to date.

Big day today.

LOXO Break out from a liner setup.  Although I prefer the pull back setup this had a lot of power in the past and there was no way I wanted to miss a b/o attempt in this one.

Took 1/2 off already and we'll see how far we can push this.

Monday, February 6, 2017

2/6

Market was pretty neutral. But got a decent gains in two new positions on slingshots.
Trade Spread Sheet - Holding a fair share of open gains.  Net liq. is approaching 10% on the year.

Closed:
My trail on CRK was hit-- Still a great trade.  Entered 10.05
1/2 Profits taken as high as 13.30
Remainder 11.87



CNAT:
Re-Entry after a pull back. -- some power is shown.

GLBS:
Slingshot triggered. Entered @8.74


Sunday, February 5, 2017

Positions and Friday's Trades/

What's working?

Week 1 Breakouts:
GKOS:

Power:
SHLO - new position:

DNN-




TREE:

Monday, January 30, 2017

Big Sell off 1/30

Position added on that I had not added on Friday was TREE:
And  Tree even shook off today's heavy selling in the broad markets.



So broad markets sold off and my positions were hit.  

Most disappointing was IPI as I had decent profits in that but it could not withstand the selling so I walk away just above break even on the position:

So we learned that it is not its time to run yet.  keep it on the watch list.
I realize that in looking for the BIG movers there will be many false starts and you have to be comfortable giving back profits to catch the big move.


other losers ACBFF, BOOM
Boom i got stopped out at the low, but since I added size  when it appeared to be breaking out I had to tighten the stop.


ACBFF:
looked good but could not get going and then secondary and I tap out.


Only buy of the day was DRYS, which was up big in A.H. on news.  This is a speculative lottery ticket type trade and have taken this trade on small shares.