Saturday, February 18, 2017

Year To Date Trading assessment.

I'm aware that I've benefited from a good market but my YTD number is decent:

That breaks down to a 46% win rate, (24 to 28 with 13 B/es) which is about what I need to be at.

So I'm doing some things right.

First, let's cover those.  This year I've narrowed my focus on power stocks coming out of stage 1 to stage 2.  I've been able to identify the most powerful stocks.  Here's a few that I've caught.

AAOI == Best planned out trade and most profitable open position:

So with trades like those, why am I only up 10%.  My discipline has not been what I've needed it to be. I've entered shorts (which is not my setup).,  I've chased low dollar stocks with big positions.

And taken trades like this, which at 1.7% equity is my biggest loss so far this year.  As I look at this chart, it is readily apparent it was not in stage 2's advance stage.  In other words, the trade should never have been taken.   I then took a 200 share position in to earnings, (they guided lower but not a big deal) I got a cheaper price and a good entry on more shares and then the trade started to look like it would work, and in fact I was positive on the trade.  Until it faded and I got hit with a 1.7% loss.  Fortunately,  a 1.7% loss is relatively small so at least I'm managing risk in that manner and not getting crushed.

Also, I've had a number of trades where I've picked up large gains, only to see the stock fade and I exit for a wash.  I need to re-commit to selling a portion off into the thrust in all but the best stocks.

So at this point, I'll grade myself as follows:

Stock Selection:  -A   Tthe stocks I'm entering are powerful stocks and are the stocks that are most capable of making huge moves.
Entries, B+  -- could be earlier but I'm planning the entires very well.
Exits B -- need to consider partials, and trails more frequently
Discipline C+ -- still prone to style drift,  and adding more shares, in a stock that sells off and taking too much size initially .  Have avoided big losses by using stops. Avoided using others stock picks.

Recommitment for March:  
Direction,  Long until stops working
Setups:  Stage 2 Only,   Slingshots, Fishhooks, and weekly breakouts. 

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