Closed HCLP, +8%

I didn't like the action in HCLP today as it reversed from a high of 50 and went lower. That is the type of action that has lead to more down days.  I think this is possible that it retakes to at least 46 to test the breakout. 

Entry: 44.34

Exit 1: 48.07 (3.73) 

Exit 2: 48.10 (+3.76 ) 

+2.26R

This turned out to be a nice little trade to get back on track. 

Longer view

Opened HCLP

I opened HCLP at 43.34. 

Last month I caught that V shaped recovery.  I don't think this one will have the same trading action. but it has held up well the past few days as big volume has come in late after HCLP was down in the mornings.  What I like about this set up is the bullish divergence on the sell offs to 40 on a double bottom type move.  If it breaks out of this consolidation range a 10-20% move is likely. 

Closed HCLP

When mean reversion trades work, they really work.  HCLP Really worked.  No need to press my luck here.  This was the largest move this particular stock has ever made.  

Entry:  44.88

Exit 1: 45.68 (1/2) (+.80, 1.7%) 1

Exit 2: 50.53 (1/2) (+5.65,  13%)

+2.15R --- and with that I pass the 50% mark  on the year!

closing remarks 

What I did well on this one is I kept stalking it.  Earlier this week when it faded, I got out with a small profit.  I saw it set up again and hit it again.  

Taking partial profits  I don't necessarily trust bounces in this market.  They have been very profitable because I don't trust them.  By taking partial profits, I moved my stop to a point where I could let the remainder run and still end up with a profitable trade.   

Why Did I sell?

The overall trend of this stock is still down.  As much as I would like to think that HCLP bounces right back to the highs there is too much damage.  I initially targeted the 200MA (48.40) as the profit target for this trade. Obviously, I got more than that and am pleased.  I'll let the rest of the traders play the rest of the bounce.  If it sets up again, perhaps I'll play along. 

Trade Summaries VSR, CERS, MAR, HCLP, XIV, LEAF, DGLY, APT, Closing in on 50%

It's been a couple of crazy, busy, and profitable days.  I've put risk on took risk off played MOMO and Mean Reversion Trades.   I'm trading very cautiously with reckless abandon.  By that I mean I am taking a lot of shots but if they are not working I'm getting out very quickly. Given the number of trades I've taken I'm doing a bulk update.

Tuesday:
Closed VSR -Pre-market  6.13.  There was a Seeking Alpha hit piece, The ebola trade is getting crowded and at some point it will end in dramatic fashion.  I believe in booking profits and this one went for over 3R without a single minute of exposure to regular market hours, which would have been subject to a brutal pull back.

Entry: 4.20
Exit 1: 5.50  (31%)
Exit 2: 6.13  (46%)

CERS:
This had some momentum behind it and I had hoped it would continue.  It seemed to get stuck, so I bailed.

Entry: 4.26
Exit 1: 4.18
Exit: 2. 4.05
- .04R

DGLY
This former momo beast started to show some renewed energy on a new patent and a new order. I though this move and news might prompt something bigger.  I took a small starter position. Not to be it dropped hard.

Entry: 11.94
Exit: 11.05
- .04R

HCLP:
A blast from the past. Could it be bottoming?  Bought 44.88  seemed to be fading.  Do I trust this market? Nope
Entry: 44.88
Exit 1: 45.61
Exit 2: 45.22  +141
+.25R

LEAF:
So the markets fading but my LEAF trade has somehow miraculously not only held up after nearly being stopped ( I was probably down 1.5R with a 2R stop,)  it gained that all back and somehow I'm green on the position.  Market volatility is increasing.  I decided to cut my position size for a small gain:

Entry: 33.75
Exit 1 (partial): 33.86

MAR
So this one is in a waterfall.  It started to make a comeback, I didn't see it with the ebola thing going around.  Who wants to fly these days?  If no one flies hotels suffer.

Entry: 62.72  (target 60)
Stop. 63.75

Closed HCLP

The initial bounce at the 50 Day average didn't hold and I got nipped on my stop ouch.  Entry 62.70

Exit: 59.96.  

Opened HCLP

After selling out of my HCLP position onThursday , I put a limit buy order just below the 10 Week MA  at 62.7 in hopes maybe I would catch a tail below the Magic Line.  To my surprise, I was filled.  HCLP continued the onslaught selling on a low of 60.27, but Friday brought a reversal and relief from the selling. 

I would have closed out the position if it had not recaptured the 10 Week MA since it has held for over a year now.

Closed HCLP

I sold HCLP this morning for a decent gain this morning at 64.11.  Worked for about 1.1R.  A shame because I had over a 4.5R on Monday.  After I sold things got a bit ugly in the sandbox:

Incidentally,  after I sold I put in my "dream price" order at the 50week MA. Well, my dream order got filled on the continued selling.

 If it can't bounce above the 50week tomorrow I'm out.

Increased positions: HCLP

Wow, does this stock love the 10 Week MA, after another successful test, I increased my position size by 30% @ $62.43.  HCLP is consolidating here and is forming a flag on the weeklies.  As impressive as this stock has been, my reason for adding to HCLP was not because it again held the 10WEEK MA before staging a bullish reversal.  Rather, it is what the other fracking sand stocks are doing right now.

Position summary: LRAD, HCLP, HPJ, CDXS, VHI, NOK,

Still a lot of bullish action in this market.

HPJ: Decent move today as it kept about half of the move

HCLP: 10Week Ma holds puts in a bullish reversal on the day.   EMES and SLCA are really pushing.  HCLP should follow.  A nice start on the week.

LRAD: pulled back on low volume.  Tomorrow will be telling. Will it resume the move or pull back?

EJ: Still in the "noise phase" after the initial breakout was thwarted.  So was the follow through on the selling.  I'm still bullish on in.

VHI had every reason to pull back but it pushed ahead. I'll stay in for now.

NOK: Just noise.  No reason to sell for me.  OR to buy if you are not in.

Week in Review, position summary

This week was very good for the bottom line.

Nok: +.43 on the week. I've owned this before the MSFT buyout and have over 100% gains.  Just when I think its done and I should sell it for a better opportunity it keeps going. This chart would look even better when you consider the .51 special dividend--putting the stock at the equivalent of $8.69.

 CDXS

I have high hopes for this one as a turn around play. The GSK deal set this in motion.  I was very pleased to see a 60,000 share insider buy this week (higher than what I paid). Its nice to see it trend up following the quiet period basically tracking the 10MA.

LRAD: Great earnings = big move I initiated a position as it pulled back 10%.  I looks to have found a base here. An insider buy was announced today.  I plan on adding as well.

HIMX:  I feel like I have a cyrstal ball on this one. I initiated the position on Tuesday and predicted this would get a kick once its 10MA catches the price.  TA DA!

HCLP: It held the 10 Week MA as it has all year.  I'm up slightly in this position but I believe a bounce is imminent as SLCA and EMES have continued their moves.  

EJ:

opened today.  Cup and a handle breakout:

HPJ: Another pick up Today. Closed about even after pulling back from its run. As long as it holds the gap, I'm bullish.

VHI: very pleased with the move out of consolidation. 

Opened: HCLP

HCLP has been one of my favorites this year.  I'm re--entering the sand box. 

I bought HCLP today at $61.66. Reason for the entry was the bounce off the 10 Week MA, which has been a good entry in this stock.  The Weekly Chart shows how well the 10 MA has supported this Stock's run.  The competitors remained strong.  HCLP's weakness was due to a secondary offering.   By comparison, EMES had announced a secondary and has already completely recovered.

Stop: Close below 10 Week MA. 

Closed: HCLP. Many bad decisions One Big Gain.

MY HLCP trade comes to an end as my stop is hit.  This was a big gain so here's the re-cap.

Entry 1:  $39.9  (Feb 18)

Entry 2:  $38.32 (Feb 21)

Entry 3: $37.55 (Feb. 21)

The breakout on the initial entry failed.  Quite frankly, it failed in epic fashion.  I bought small because it was at a high end of the range.  As it pulled back, I added.   It then rallied--and failed again. 

Exit 1: Sold off 40.65 (April 7).  At this point, HCLP had rallied to about a high of 42.50.  And then sold off.  The sell offs were relatively quick.  I'm not sure why I made the decision to cut back on the position here, but I did and I sold off 1/3 of the position. I'm sure this was more of a "fear" of losing profits decision than a profit target.  That being said It worked out and  I bought back that position 3 days  later at $39.43.  

Entry 4: $39.43.  

After selling 20pts higher its easy to just simply think you made a great decision at the time.  But the truth is I didn't.  HCLP started to sell off... I bought... it went down more on huge volume.  The announcement was that they had announced a secondary offering. There is nothing that looks good on this chart. Perhaps if I were playing a mean reversion strategy some triggers would go off on huge. But I can't say I was.   At this point, all of my position was underwater.

Things Change.

Up to this point, HCLP had been a disappointing trade. Over the next two days. A couple of reversal candles formed:

This would have been a good time to buy.  Two reversal @ 36 would strongly suggest the end of the downward pressure.  A stock could be placed for the break of 36, which would presented reasonable R/R.

Then the fun begins.

I was on vacation that week in June when it sold off but was pleased after it compressed and headed higher by week's end.  I didn't not have a particularly well formed exit strategy. So I decided to ride it out. 

EXIT 2, position closed.

HCLP then topped out and sold off hard.  Sure I knew HCLP was over extended but I was hopeful it would compress and the selling continued.  I had set a volatility stop  3.5 X 21 ATR, which had tracked the trend very well.. That stop was violated and I sold at $58.92 today.

Summary: Avg. Entry 38.88 $    Exit. 58.92   (+ 20.04 51.5%)  Dividends (1.10)  Exit 1 (+1.02  (3.07/3)  Total points. 21.58  ($57.80 % Return).*

*Correction.  HCLP went Ex. Div. yesterday. So I'll picked up another .58 in dividends, which will be paid later this month.  I added this anticipated dividend payment into the total return.

In speculation, emotions are always in the backdrop.  There's fear, there's greed, pride, embarrassment, loss and regret. 

Here, I acknowledge I regret selling at this point.  I wanted the LT capital gain.  I'm fearful that HCLP will bounce and rally to new highs.  The fundamentals are strong. The industry is going to rally expand or it could implode.  Much could be priced in, new quarries could go on line prices could collapse. I don't know. No matter how informed I may be, I can only trade price.

My ultimate success as a trader will depend on being able to get beyond those emotions or realize how they impact my decision making process. 

 After I sold, this today. I felt the need to engage in some reckless day trades in MBLY-- some new IPO that I'm not sure what it even does.  I made money on the trades, but what the hell was I thinking?  I think it was regret.  I probably had married my HCLP  position more than I would like to admit.  And when I got out my subconscious must have felt the void.  I have much work still to do.

GBX: a train that won't slow down

So GBX blew out earnings and put up 12%.

I bought GBX last month at 56 and change.  But sold after the initial breakout failed as I did not want to give my profits back. Had I held my initial stop I would have still been in this trade.  I considered re-entry and and would considered it to have been a good entry point.  After reviewing GBX's recent past quarter earnings I noted a miss and some loss of traction.  As a result, I chose not to re-enter despite my belief that the industry was strong.  Since it was a calculated decision not to re-enter, I'm not that disappointed that I missed the earnings move.

So do  can I learn from missing this move?

GBX tells me however, that the "rails" are strong and the big driver  is because of domestic energy.  Oil is being shipped out and fracking sand is being shipped in.  Similar comments were expressed in UNP's CC which said shipments of Fracking sand was up 22% in Q1.

I have owned HCLP sub $38. It's had a great run despite the pullback today.  During the course, I've owned it it has had several of these significant pull backs. March, April and in June. Today's move in GBX tells me there is more left in the tank. I'll track UNP's earnings as well.  If positive, I would target EMES, SLCA, or HCLP on any significant pull back before earnings reporting as I believe there is substantial likelihood the results will be great.  If the railroads are buying more cars to service the fracking industry, the RR's will be more active as will the drillers.

Current position summary.

Longs:

SFUN  Looking very nice.  Bought at 11.23 average.

Leju: Bought at 10.65.  The recent Ipo trading history is short but it has come back with a vengeance after an IPO flop? It great earnings and pickup 3 more analysts all with buy ratings.  Ideally, I would like to see consolidation and the 12 hold.  

HCLP this one has been on fire average price 38.88 (not including the dividends)  Probably a bit overheated and a pull back might be needed. I would love to just let this one ride for the year and take a long term capital gain. 

RFMD: Another melt up type stock.  In at 7.48.  Unfortunately,  I reduced my position size by 20% on that big red bar (for a small profit) in April.  Since May this has been off to the races.

NOK Average $4.43 This was my star of last year.  After a lot of consolidation between 8 and 7 NOK looks poised for another run if it can get past 8.  It's picked up some price targets and announced a share buyback  and a .51 dividend.  (we'll call that a reward for my patience after they cut the dividend shortly after I bought)  Obviously, this has paid off well for me and I want to see what it can do now that it is free of the handset division.

MCD: Avg. $100.28  continues to put in a nice little trend.  Slow and steady.  The 20 MA has acted as support.  If the market stays strong I would expect the next leg up to 104-05. I have no big expectations here, but it's a nice place to park some cash 3%+ dividend.

GFA: the dog of the group avg. 3.42 The breakout failed (or is failing?)   I was hopeful that the Brazil Rally would move this up and it had looked ready to breakout.  And then it went the opposite direction.  I cut my position size by 1/2 today and will dump the rest on close below 3.  Just under a 1R loss right now.   EWZ and many of the leading Brazillian stocks recently sold off.  Hopefully they can catch a bounce.  If not there's R. I. and C. of the Brics

SHORTS:
YOD This is what I love to see on a day after I take a short position.  -12.69% the next day. If only every trade worked on this well.   I anticipate as volume dries up this will drift lower.  There are likely people that bought the billionaire news at 3.20 or higher who are now trapped and when they capitulate YOD should see new lows.