Thursday, July 31, 2014

300 Plus down day. Closed: CGNX, SPWR

I had noted for some time that the market was appearing to roll over. My break out trades did not get much traction.  Today they all fell apart and the major averages were down big today.  300 on the Dow.  The S&P looked like this.   

That caused a few stops to get hit, CGNX SPWR

CGNX, was my "they had great earnings" I think I should buy it play...:   In AH $44.85  Out 41.57 - 3.28.   This trade failed on all counts, theory, entry and exit as I let my  42 stop slide.   The only positive is that I traded it small as it was a test trade for me.



SPWR had set up nicely but it couldn't handle the selling.  ... and good thing for me because my stop get hit.  Sold at 37.47.  They then missed earnings and traded as low as 32 AH.




Entry. 38.51  Exit. 37.47.  - 1.04.   .57R.   
What can I say?  I traded planned my trade and traded my plan. It didn't work.  I had opportunities to get out with small profits but the set up was still decent.   My mistake was initiating the trade with 3 days to earnings which constricted the movement to the upside.    Live to fight another day.


Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Opened: Emes

I bought EMES after it reversed and came in hard.  It then bounced and I bought $108.46.  Stop just above he 50MA  104.50


In someways this feels like a reactionary trade, rather than a set up I normally would prefer.  I felt that  the sell off was unwarranted in this sector as SLCA just reported great earnings and guided higher.  ALL fracking sands were up in the AM and all reversed especially hard.   But it has routinely done so during its ascent.  Buying the dips below the 20 MA has paid off well. .  I  guess the choice is either this huge trend continues or it doesn't.  I bet that it does, I haven't seen signs that the fundamentals will change. So here we go again.

Closed: HYGS

This was disappointing.  I sold off in the AM as the gap started to fill... then off to the races closing up over 11%

Trade summary:
Entry: 20.89
Partial exit. 21.53 (1/3 =.64 Remainder  $21.32  (2/3) + .43

This could have been a very good trade, instead I wind up with about a small gain.  So what went wrong?  I probably bought too high, which made me too fearful to hold as HYGS came in a bit.  I could have held the original stop but that was stretched due to the strength of the move I bought into.

Also weighing on my mind was that the earnings came in but revenues missed.  There was not aggressive buying so I thought the miss on revs might cause it to be punished. I had read the 10K and it looked like there was a big back log which should play out nicely second half the year.  Revs were down YOY because last  year there was a Q1 delay which caused revs to be booked in q2 2013.



Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Opened: SPWR

Here's one from yesterday that I forgot to log.  I bought @38.5 off the green candle following down days as the move seemed to suggest a pop.  Today AM it got a little traction then barfed it back out.  Stop at 37.50.  .7R

Monday, July 28, 2014

Opened: CGNX. Let's see what this earning gap stuff is all about.

CGNX put up monster earnings in my opinion and moved up 20% A.H.

Here's where it's coming from:


I bought @ 44.85 as it looked like it was going higher.  Its after hours high went over 47. This is a test trade for me as I want to put the post earnings continuation trade in my playbook.  The trouble of course is how do you know whether a particular move will be a break away gap or whether it will fade?

Unless I have real money on the line I don't think I can analyze my theory.  So I bought 100 shares, which is small enough that If the gap fills it won't damage my R.  It closed AH trading at  44.
I'll use 42 as the stop.


I've bet this CGNX will be a continuation move rather than a pop and drop.
Here's the S.A. type summary.

Cognex +23% AH on Q2 beat, strong guidance


    • Cognex (NASDAQ:CGNX) expects Q3 revenue of $165M-$170M, well above a $142M consensus. A major customer is expected to account for over $60M of the total.
    • While all three of Cognex's market segments contributed to its strong Q2 performance, the company states factory automation helped the most, with European demand picking up following a weak 2013. Both factory automation and surface inspection set new revenue records, and chip/electronics capital equipment grew Q/Q and Y/Y.
    • Gross margin was 76% vs. 77% in Q1 and 76% a year ago; GM is expected to slip to "the mid-70% range" in Q3.
    • R&D spend +15% Y/Y to $13.6M, SG&A spend +16% to $38.7M. $13M was spent on buybacks.
    • Opex is expected to rise 25% Q/Q in Q3 due to "further investments in growth areas," some of which won't be repeating in Q4. Q4 opex is only expected to be 10% above Q2 levels
  • The only potential negative I've seen is that margins guidance have been reduced and are seen dropping to the "mid 70s"    CGNX has the highest gross margins and second highest operational margins in the sector.  The 10Q stated that it was due to higher additional sales staff and other personnel expenses.  






Fold: partial Close

Fold came back near my entry so I took my second /13 and exited.
FOLD got a very nice bounce after that point and made up much of its ground.  I still have 1/3 of my original position left.

Perhaps this was more of a psychology saving exit for me.  It didn't come close to my stop But I didn't want to let a gain turn to a loss.  Given the option IV, the market is pricing the likelihood of a large move.  Although I believe it will be to the upside given the smart money buying, that's not a risk I want to go big on.

I have retained my last 1/3 against the Aug 5 calls.

Closed: WMT, MTN

WMT fell out of the consolidation which made a nice short opportunity.  In pre-market it fell as low as $75.07 before the bell.  I had attempted to get filled at .10 but it didn't happen.  It opened up @.44  I closed at $75.59.

Entry 76.29  +.70  +4. R.     This was never going to be a big trade, I took what it gave... if only I was faster on the draw this morning.



MTN
This was a trade off the MACD divergence type top.  
Entry: $77.35
Exit.  Partial $75.55 (+1.80 ) and  $76.42.  (+.93)   .4R  This could have been a great exit but I only got a partial fill -- 25%  and then the bid jumped.  After seeing it was a reversal I decided just to end the trade.

Nothing special.


Sunday, July 27, 2014

VRNS: Stupid is as Stupid does but dumb money prevails

I violated my stop.  Not a good Idea.  I was rewarded with a reversal a day later: 


 I note my mistake so I make a habit of avoiding this type of trade and don't just see a gain in the trade column.

In retrospect my stop was too tight. (I did not exceed my 2% rule, even with the broken stop).  My initial trade of VRNS identified 20 as the stop.  I should have used that same stop instead of 21.

So why did I stay in?  Low volume pull back, wide spreads and I rationalized that the VRNS was trading at a market cap, which IBM offered to buy the entire company several years ago.  Stochastics are under 6.00 so its very overversold. Others stocks in the sector were bouncing, etc..

The point is I can justify an number of reasons to stay in a stock.  More often than not I will lose money by pulling this type of stunt.  So 50 push ups as punishment for not sticking to the trading plan.

Friday, July 25, 2014

New buy HYGS (and partial close)

HYGS  Got a great break out today.  Bought at 20.89.   I sold 1/3 my position off at 21.53.  Stop at days low on remaining -- $18.25.  1R. This was a powerful move on a thin stock so there is hopefully a lot more upside..

I'm on the highest margin I have been on all year. My account is also at an all time high.  That being said, I sold out a 1/3 of this position to  reduce my margin exposure as the market has been showing signs of weakness in its breadth and   A lot of my margin is devoted to some short positions to reduce the risk. But still, now is not the time to go all in.  

Partial close: Fold

FOLD has continued to do anyting but.
Sold 1/3 of my position @ $4.46.  So to summarize remaining position 1/2 hedge against covered calls. 1/2 unhedged.  Will move stop up to Break Even.


Thursday, July 24, 2014

Opened: Short WMT

Went short WMT witha tight stop at today's high.
76.29, stop at 77.80  .3 R

Possibly setting up for a H&S. Today slightly broke out of the range to the downside. Tomorrow will be decisive.   76 could provide some support but it it does not hold a decent 2 to 3 point move to the downside could start.


closed Gild

 I took this trade as a post earnings play This was not my typical set up, not my typical position size.  I got a bit of a gap move in my favor this morning but then it began to fade. I decided just to bang it out as this is not my normal type of trade.

I made enough for a nice lunch but not much more.

In 90.75
out 91.06.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Opened FOLD, GILD

FOLD comes out of my Telechart 2000 Scan.  A new software program for me.

I like how FOLD retook its high on good volume.  Biotechs have been strong and this has nice flag (Albeit a large %  (18)  given this stock price .)  In June the pull back was only 8% but the pattern is similar-- dip rally dip go.

Its a positive sign that a major biotech investment firm (perceptive advisors) has been buying in advance of the release of phase III.   They picked up 4 Million shares, which likely the big pop at the end of last month.

Long at 4.21
 STOP: 3.50  which puts just under 2R on the trade.   More than I would normally feel comfortable... But there's a But.   The August 5 Calls were bid at .80!  an amount I feel is insanely high.  IV 231% v HV of 101.  If FOLD didn't move at all it would amount to a 20% return in a month.  I sold CC's against 1/3 my position.   So even if this goes against me, I've hedged and reduced my R at risk to roughly 1.25 depending on when and how the drop and stop would occur.



GILD
Monster earnings = I chase and not much action afterwords.  GILD looked very nicely pressed against the 90 handle.  It then blew out earnings so I buy 90.80 the stock doesn't go up a zillion $ like many of the stocks that have beat latley.  FB, CMG, BIIB.  It bobbles and fades a bit.

I took this small so my  Stop  will be under 85.  1R





Closed EJ, LNG

I got a couple of nice moves.

Three good days in a row.  Decided not to tempt fate. Sold

Summary:  I got a good move there is probably another day left in this move.  Had I taken twice the position, I would have only sold half. But my position size was a product of the number and size of other positions I had on when the position was taken.

Entry: $9.79
Exit: $10.94  + 1.15  11.7% 1.05R


LNG:
After a false start after buying LNG regrouped and re-broke out and hit an all time high. Less volume today.  So I decided to close the position selling into this strength.

Summary:
Entry was not great  I bought four days after the range breakout.  On a weaker industry group that probably would have crushed me.  LNG has been strong all year (and then some) which gave me another chance to re-enter.  In the future, I'd be better to buy closer to the 20MA

Enter: $72.46
Exit:  $75.92   + 3.46  4.77% 1.2R

Saturday, July 19, 2014

New buy: EJ

EJ.  EJ owns 75 of LEJU, which it spun off.  It is trading less than LEJU's value and cash.  The market got skittish on Chinese housing stocks but recently there have been positive developments.  I see a double bottom with a handle now forming.  Earnings have grown over 170% this year.   8X future earnings. 

Entry: $9.79
Stop: $9.00  R.75%


Opened VRNS

VRNS is a blast from the past where I've had some success in this stock. I liked the big move off the down trend.  This provides a good risk to reward type scenario. My stop is tighter which allows more  for more size. The Stop can be placed at days low but this is the type of entry should it hold could produce a 30 to 50% gain over the next month. 

Entry 22.15
Stop:  21.00 .75% R. 

If that it rallies that first green bar will look beautiful:

Longer term trading history is limited because it is a recent IPO.  



VIP stopped out.

Russian Stock, breakout fail. Stopped out:
I was hopeful that it would find some legs and rally. It did not. Had I kept the stop looser I might have still been in this as it's not completely broke yet but the breakout fizzled out.  Again, kept the losses low.   The winners will come.

Summary:
Bought  $8.95
Sold:  $8.46.:  .49.  - 5.47%   -6 R.  

Thursday, July 17, 2014

New Short: MTN

As the market has not cooperated with my long breakout plays,  I want some exposure to the short side.  So why MTN?  After all it's been very strong since the middle of may. 

Here's what I see.  Two new highs with declining MACD, that is typically suggestive of a topping pattern.  In addition earnings have already come out so I minimize my gap risk  

Entry: $77.36.  Stop 79.50.  If the market stays under pressure I wouldn't put it past it for that 72 Gap to fill. 


Closed positions: One Win, EMES, One Loss ORLY

I closed EMES today.  In at 105.18 out at 108.77  +3.59. 3.41% gain. +67 R gain

To recap.  This is the type of trade that has reflected why I have been successful this year.  The objective of this trade failed.  I had hoped for a break of 110 a move to 115 or beyond.  Two failed attempts at 110 have now occurred and I still exit with a respectable profit.

What has worked is that I've consistently bought low ends of ranges, The reversal candle was my buy signal as it coincided with a bounce off the 20MA.  I chose not to give this another chance at the 110 as the market overall looks weak and breakouts have not had much momentum behind them.


Now the bad:
In at  $155.50 
Out at $152.18  - $3.32 or 2.14%  .6R loss
I did not like the bearish reversal.  Although I thought this has potential the market forces are not aligned right now.  I kept the loss small.  Other than that not too much to say about this one. 

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

New position: VIP

Today I bought VIP at 8.95, Stop at days low. $8.46.  Just over .5R VIP has a decent setup but the market shows some signs of tiring as the small caps are not keeping up with the Mega companies.
VIP comping off a bottom  somewhat of a inverse H&S chart set up.  Better than average volume from range bound trading and closed near the HOD.  Looking for follow through but will play it tight.

 I have no grand visions of glory for this stock but these are the types that can sometimes surprise you.  I'll fade out a portion over the next 3 days assuming continuation and with the remainder of the position, we'll see what happens. Although it was not my basis for taking the trade there is a fundamental driver, in that there is news of  renewed merger talks, per Bloomberg:
VimpelCom gained after people familiar with the matter said the company has restarted discussions to combine its wireless operations in Italy with Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. (13)
“The merger would strengthen VimpelCom’s finances, and traders assume it will go through this time,” Ksenia Arutyunova, an analyst at Rye, Man & Gor Securities, said by phone from Moscow yesterday. “Fewer players means less competition, which in turn may result in higher prices and more revenue for the local cell phone companies. It may be the beginning of a turnaround for VimpelCom in Italy.”

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

CDXS Early bird gets the worm. RJET goes down, I get out.

CDXS was all the rage today.  I watched the volume come in from just a few thousand share pre-market.  (this averages 30k) over 5.3 mill traded today.   I bought at 2.30 right before the AM pre-market CC.  It traded down as low 2.15 shortly before CC began.  But gradually traded up.  I put a limit sell order at 2.65 and went to take a shower.   My order was hit and I was out for a .35 gain.  Turns out my sale was as the HOD Woot!  +.35 16% gain. 

If only I stopped there.  But decided to get cute. Bought again at 2.05 hoping 2.00 would hold and make another run to 2.25. Nope.  took the loss at 1.97.  so only .27 on the day or 11%.  +.5R.  

Take aways:
I'm not a day trader.  

The first trade my profit target was hit, and I'm fine with that profit.  The second, I tried to get too cute.   That being said, I limited my loss quickly and get out with a gain on the day. 

  •  The CC was interesting as CDXS insinuated that the new deal was not part of Q2 earnings, which would be announced during August. The company inferred that it would raise guidance during the earnings CC.  Point being this is one to keep watching.

  • CDXS also said it was talking to other companies about similar deals.  However, it did not believe more than 1 or 2 a year was feasible given the size of the deals and the complexities.
  • Big firm analysts asked questions Wells fargo and I believe Fidelity  watch for upgrades.



RJET:
Woke up to ews of a BOA and Merrill Downgrades.  I felt confident that the downgrades would ensure that the momentum it had built up would stop. Thus, I saw little reason to remain in this stock.


I decided to sell shortly after the open as my reason for the trade looked in doubt rather than wait for the stop to be hit.  I have seen a few of the Airlines fail breakouts reverse  and then break to the downside, I  wanted to avoid that result.

Entry: 11.08
Exit: 10.65
Loss. - 4.8%  .4 R.

Summary:
I felt okay about my entry.  I missed a chance to exit at least a portion of the position when it got to 11.50  (too slow to log in) and it drifted down to breakout level.  That's not atypical so I did not exit hoping to see a delayed move.  Instead I got a downgrade and decided to manage my risk by exiting the trade.  Looking at the close it actually held up pretty well as the 10.50 acted as support.  Next few days will determine which way it decides to go.

Thursday, July 10, 2014

More from the Sand Box EMES and RJET takes off

I've loved the stocks I'm calling the sand box this year.  SLCA, EMES, and of course HCLP.  Each of these stocks hit the 20MA and each them rallied.   I already own HCLP from under 38. So I  bought EMES today, which has  lead the group for most of the year before being slowed down by a secondary.

In any event bounced at the 20ma I picked up at 105.18 it closed at 107.49 so I've got a decent 2% gain to work with. My stop is at the day low.  When this stock moves it moves!

RJET:  This looks like an inverse H&S shoulder.  I liked the consolidation which has held up despite hard selling in the broader markets.  Today it put up a relatively big move for it.  On news of increased Q2 guidance.  RJET increases its earnings per share by 16% for the quarter and is increasing guidance on its operating margins.

 I like its prospects for follow through. In at 11.09 stop at 10.39.  It has a 2 year high of about 14. On forward earnings it has a PE of 8 which is much cheaper than many of its peers.  This may be enough to get some traction.

That being said I'm still curious as to its operating margin which is over 16% which is high compared to the industry to its profit margin which is 3% which is at the lower end of the companies in the group. I suspect that this is due to debt service.  The company has stated that it is replacing older planes with bigger one, which would explain the debt.



Market Sell off Closed AZO calls, RFMD + 25%

After a bounce yesterday, the markets opened down big on news of a Portugal bond situation and talk of the end of QE.  Pre-market every thing was very, very  red.

Preservation of capital time. 

I knew this meant AZO would pull back and would not breakout today.  As my call position depended on a breakout today or at least movement toward that direction, I knew I needed out. So I got out at the open.  I used to the increase in Vol. to get a better price and got out at .60 for a very small loss.



Likewise, I decided to get out of RFMD.  There was a bid Pre-market that I felt would be at least .10 higher than it would open so I hit it and got out at 9.47.

RFMD is a position I've had for several months and the chart shows why:



I bought at $7.47 on March 5.  and sold @ 9.47.  So I end up with a 25.8% gain on the trade.  Obviously, there was a very nice trend.  I got a little hesitant as there was a lower high.  From a fundamental side, RFMD will soon be merging with TQNT the new company will cut a lot of overlap and it will be an interesting one to watch.  That being said,  I would anticipate that there may be some "final period" issues that will be reflected in quarterly earnings and growing pains as the companies merge. I don't see this position as one that I would be able to hold to next march without a substantial risk of a pull back.  For that reason I'm outta here. 



Wednesday, July 9, 2014

A bit of a bounce. Stopped Out of GDXJ and some new action in Auto Parts. ORLY AZO

After taking a beating over the last two days the markets staged a rally.  It looks like my FB trade was just a day early as FB rallied hard today:


I thought 62 might act as support and it did. But I wasn't willing to move my stop to take the risk.  I guess you can't win them all.


GDXJ has shown great strength and my short taken during the congestion must be closed.  
Entry 40.76 closed 43.95. - 3.19.   I knew this was somewhat of a risky trade going into it as gold stocks are notorious for choppy actions and fake breakouts in both directions. So I positioned size accordingly. 1.5% loss here.

Today's break was on high volume, which suggests I should look for long plays in some of the miners included in the ETF.



New Positions:  In at 155.50.  A  very nice move out of congestion.  I'm playing this a smaller than normal so I have a stop at 151.90 . 

Since ORLY broke out I'm anticipating that AZO will follow. So I picked up some calls:

I picked up the July 550s calls.  This a high risk trade given the the option expo day. It either works tomorrow or I get out out because the Theta decay is going to get ugly real fast.

On options my risk and position size is set assuming a  $0.00 so I'm risking .05%R here.



What has me excited about both of these stocks is their monthly charts, A breakout on the weekly charts could produce some very big moves:

ORLY weekly (dynamic):
AZO (Dynamic )

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Closed positions stopped FB closed VRNS

I had been hopeful that yesterday was just a pause and the upward motion would regain.  To that end, I added to my VRNS position and bought FB.  I closed both today.  It was not pretty overall in the markets.  THE Qs pretty much paint the picture.

First FB.  I set 64 as my target to hold.  It didn't I took the loss at 63.95, which saved me from quite a bit of pain as FB sold hard.  I could look at the chart and see some support at 62 and hope that would hold but that is how you get into trouble.  64 and the 20Ma  was support under my theory.  Took Less than a 1R loss.  I believe that the position size and risk parameters were suitable given the circumstances as this was not set up for a "big" trade.


VRNS:  This one just pisses me off!  I let a beautiful profit get away. In at 25.57 I had over a 20% profit within a 2 week period.  I ended up selling at $27.05 after increasing my position by 20% at $29.28.  So I exit with a profit but just a fraction what I had a few days ago.  The lesson I take away with these thinly traded stocks is that you have to take the profit when it is there because it can vanish quickly.

That being said, in some ways this trade marks the progression I've made as a speculator. My mistakes are still resulting in profitable trades.  In years past, a mistake would be a loss and then would be compounded by bigger losses.




Long FB


FB has recently had a nice run but topped out at 68 and retreated to the bottom trend line.  I'm bought on the theory that the trend line and 20MA will provide support and a good entry for a bounce.  In addition, the interday looked close to putting in a reversal or at least a tail until late day selling.  This type of trade give a good R to reward type entry.


Closed Positions. RBCN, YOD

I closed my remaining half on the break of 9.   The catalyst behind the sell-off was down grades to sector leader Gtat, which was down over 3.00.  I knew RBCN wouldn't be saved from the selling so I decided to save more profits.  (9 had been resistance, resistance becomes support and support was broken.  All in all a very good trade for me.  In at 7.52 out at 8.92 (on this portion of the trade.  Some profits were taken as high as 9.29.


YOD:

I finally closed my short of YOD avg $3.44  bought in  @ 2.75 (avg)  I  was only going to close 1/3 of my position, but in all honesty I just go bored with it as volatility and volume have completely dried up.    I exit with a decent  profit on the trade.



Thursday, July 3, 2014

NQ is DQ'd Closed the Aug 12c NQ

So this has been a wild ride.  I bought the Aug 12calls on the gap up on the news that the NQ's independent audit came back clean and showed no fraud. NQ sold off from that point when the expected 20F has yet to materailze.  I was still somewhat still an optimist up to yesterday when NQ rallied on a rumor that it would be released shortly.

Today, I woke up to the following headline:
"NQ stated its independent auditor has "communicated [...] that it would need to perform additional procedures and expand the scope of its 2013 audit work." The request, NQ says, came sometime after the June 4, 2014, release of its summary findings of the independent investigation. In that summary, NQ insisted no evidence of such fraud was found. 
Curiously, NQ Mobile says it's only "considering" the auditor's request, and will "provide a further update when available." What's more, the audit update was buried in a single paragraph at the bottom of NQ's lengthy press release, which first justified a shake-up in NQ's board of directors and audit committee. Most notably, NQ's current chair of the audit committee informed the board she would be stepping down "due to personal reasons not related to her role at the company effective on July 6, 2014."

Yea. (sarcasm) 

Upon reading this news, I knew my hypothesis for the trade was wrong--That the 20F would be reported shortly and would be relatively clean driving the NQ up to 30 giving my calls a huge profit, which would put a porsche in my driveway.  (we all dream).

After getting the slap in the face I knew I needed to act. Problem being, the option markets do not open until 9:32.  So I had to wait until the open to bail and bail I did.   I put a limit order in for .15 which got filled immediately--high of the day (yea!).

A tip I've picked up over the years and as my time at the CBOE is a big move down will inflate the price of calls before the volatility is crushed.  Using that to my advantage let me save a few bucks and get the top price of the day on my calls.  

The market loved the news as much as I did ultimately closing down 32.25%.  


Summary:   This trade was never about a price proving or disproving my theory but was to be news driven.  I made a bet and it was wrong.   I limited my risk by buying options as I knew this would be a wild ride. When buying options on a trade like this I take size for the trade with the assumption I will lose it all. I nearly did.  Bot  @ $1.85 Sold .15   This was less than a 2% portfolio loss, which is acceptable under my rules.

In retrospect this is a trade that I shouldn't have taken.  There were so many red flags -- I doubt I would have taken this trade If I had not been on the huge win streak that I have had over the first two quarters. Ultimately,   I gambled instead of speculated and the market called my bluff.  Well played market, Well played indeed.

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

GBX: a train that won't slow down

So GBX blew out earnings and put up 12%.
I bought GBX last month at 56 and change.  But sold after the initial breakout failed as I did not want to give my profits back. Had I held my initial stop I would have still been in this trade.  I considered re-entry and and would considered it to have been a good entry point.  After reviewing GBX's recent past quarter earnings I noted a miss and some loss of traction.  As a result, I chose not to re-enter despite my belief that the industry was strong.  Since it was a calculated decision not to re-enter, I'm not that disappointed that I missed the earnings move.

So do  can I learn from missing this move?

GBX tells me however, that the "rails" are strong and the big driver  is because of domestic energy.  Oil is being shipped out and fracking sand is being shipped in.  Similar comments were expressed in UNP's CC which said shipments of Fracking sand was up 22% in Q1.

I have owned HCLP sub $38. It's had a great run despite the pullback today.  During the course, I've owned it it has had several of these significant pull backs. March, April and in June. Today's move in GBX tells me there is more left in the tank. I'll track UNP's earnings as well.  If positive, I would target EMES, SLCA, or HCLP on any significant pull back before earnings reporting as I believe there is substantial likelihood the results will be great.  If the railroads are buying more cars to service the fracking industry, the RR's will be more active as will the drillers.






New Buy: LNG

LNG is a very interesting company.  It is actually going to be exporting natural gas. I believe it is the only U.S. Company that has a permit to export Natural gas. I've recently read a great book that documented LNG's rials and tribulations.  That being said, my reason for entry is the consolidation on the chart along with additional long term contracts.

LNG has consolidated for a month.  I bought on the breakout $72.46.  I'm not crazy about my entry as I don't typically like buying breakouts.  I'm somewhat comforted by the strength of the past breakout. Stop @ $66.60, which is right below where the breakout started.



Dynamic:

Closed MCD

This is one that just never followed through so I sold it out for a minimal gain. I'm not crazy about the series of lower highs and its has ties up a decent % of my capital given the price. The market is in a "risk on" mode and there are simply better plays.

Summary:  Bought 100.27 3/15/14
                   Sold at $100.60 7/1/14  + .33 (and .81 dividend) Total $1.14