Showing posts with label XIV. Show all posts
Showing posts with label XIV. Show all posts

Monday, October 5, 2015

Oct 5.

My largest position XIV continues its tear towards contango: I own a lot of this in the 23, 25, 26 range.



APEI, short
back tests the breakdown price seemed to be rejected, setting up for a downward trust if there is any weakness broad markets.


FIT: nice consolidation, put on a starter position
OVAS:
This is one  that had a nice countertrend bounce over the past couple of days.  I like to short these types of stocks at the first sign of weakness.  Using a short time frame when the trend breaks, I enter.  I expect the win rate to be lower the shorter the time frame, but the pay off can be 5 to 1, which is why I take these trades.

This one did not work as a short... yet.  We

Although OVAS didn't work UNFI might:


Monday, September 14, 2015

Sept 14 Trade Journal

Entered GMCR 60.07 as we get bearish range expansion following uptrend..  If we get follow through tomorrow, I think this could drop to the 40s.   

USE close of 9 hourly EMA to trail


GWR: Short  - -Nice move today Short in 61.60s  -- tight stop and bulls are getting tired -- nice close on the low.




Hourly --- bearish rang expansion pierced through consolidation area then did it again this morning.

VTAE: Fishhook breakout 
Averaged into a 15.13 position as the 15 breakout held


XIV: 
added anotheto the position.  Contango is now only (-3% still backwardization but this is the VXX short is the greatest trade.   

If this were not a mean reverting instrument there is no way I would take this trade with the size I am now up to. 


Monday, October 27, 2014

XIV mean reversion Trade

On Friday I opened up XIV after it reversed. I've done well in XIV so I thought I would take another shot.  This time it went for a b/e trade as it started to fade pre-market.  Since I have not elected mark-to-market accounting, I thought it best to preserve the gain and my ability to trade it over the next 31 days. 

Entry: 31.73
Exit: 31.88



Monday, October 20, 2014

DAY TRADES, INO, SCOK, APPL, XIV

I don't like day trading but some days the just trades present themselves.  I don't trust the market right now to take Lottery Ticket type trades over night.  So I've gotten out of trades quickly  I had one bad trade today,  quite frankly it was unacceptable.  But  I still closed out 5 day trades and 1 trade from Friday for a 1R% gain on my equity.

SCOK 

Some news on SCOK a gap with some volume.  Based on past history and a small float I figured this would be in play.
I bought at $3.80, It ran up to 4.20.  Rather than sell there I wanted to give it a chance to run so I moved my stop up to 3.95.  It got hit on the next pull back.

After seeing it run to a high of 4.44, I thought I would give it another chance hoping that it would have some magic left for power hour.  It was not to be.  This got a bit away from me as it slid. I added more in hopes of a pop but I got stopped on the whole position.

Trade 1:
Entry 3.80
Exit 3.95
+.15, +3.9%,  +.34R

Trade 2:
Entry 4.23, 3.85 (avg. 4.04)
Exit. 3.68
1.17R - 8.9% .  I let my knowledge of Scok's past run cloud my judgment.  I had visions of a 5 handle close in my mind and it cost me.

IBIO

I liked the strength of this going into the close on Friday.  Apparently  there was a negative Seeking Alpha article and this gapped down.  As it bounced up it set a range in the 2.40s.  I wanted to see what it could do once it hit the gap.  I bought in at 2.46 (anticipate the break of 2.50) it worked very well.  The stock eventually faded pretty hard.  Why did I sell?  I guess it's because I didn't really trust the Ebola rally and would rather sell on the way up.

Summary 
Entry: 2.46
Exit: 2.74  (11.4%) + .9 R

Not bad for 20 minutes. My take away from this trade is keep an eye on the stocks that closed strong the day before.  Even if they gap the other way there may be a profitable trade hiding in there.  This had a nice tightening up and then it burst.



XIV
I caught another great bounce in the XIV.
Entry: 29.77
Exit : 30.49
.72, 2.5% .5R
I decided to sell on the close as the market has now put in a nice rally heading towards a V shaped recovery.  I'm looking for some selling to come in over the next day or so and I want to preserve equity.  I don't feel that this is the place to establish a long term position, so I would rather do the quick hits.
AAPL
AAPL beat earnings today.  I picked it up A.h. at 100.20  it traded up gradually but  there did not seem to be a lot of panic to get into positions.  For that reason, I felt it was best to bang it out before the morning.  out 101.05  .85, .8%, .27R

Friday, October 17, 2014

Closed XIV, Mean Reversion Trade

As I had hoped, the rally put in another + day.  My XIV trade did very well.  I exited as I saw the russell rally faltering.  Divergence suggests this rally will fail.  I had hoped for 32 but I'd rather sell well when everyone is still giddy.


Entry: 25.22
Exit: 28.75 (14%)
+ 2.9R  This turned out to be a very nice little swing trade

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Opened XIV

Market looked good moving of lows in the A.M. I thought I would see if this would play.  Gapped down and I bought 25.22  Nice rally to a high of 27.74.  I moved my stop up to 26.05.

Target 33.


Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Trade Summaries VSR, CERS, MAR, HCLP, XIV, LEAF, DGLY, APT, Closing in on 50%

It's been a couple of crazy, busy, and profitable days.  I've put risk on took risk off played MOMO and Mean Reversion Trades.   I'm trading very cautiously with reckless abandon.  By that I mean I am taking a lot of shots but if they are not working I'm getting out very quickly. Given the number of trades I've taken I'm doing a bulk update.

Tuesday:
Closed VSR -Pre-market  6.13.  There was a Seeking Alpha hit piece, The ebola trade is getting crowded and at some point it will end in dramatic fashion.  I believe in booking profits and this one went for over 3R without a single minute of exposure to regular market hours, which would have been subject to a brutal pull back.


Entry: 4.20
Exit 1: 5.50  (31%)
Exit 2: 6.13  (46%)

CERS:
This had some momentum behind it and I had hoped it would continue.  It seemed to get stuck, so I bailed.

Entry: 4.26
Exit 1: 4.18
Exit: 2. 4.05
- .04R

DGLY
This former momo beast started to show some renewed energy on a new patent and a new order. I though this move and news might prompt something bigger.  I took a small starter position. Not to be it dropped hard.


Entry: 11.94
Exit: 11.05
- .04R

HCLP:
A blast from the past. Could it be bottoming?  Bought 44.88  seemed to be fading.  Do I trust this market? Nope
Entry: 44.88
Exit 1: 45.61
Exit 2: 45.22  +141
+.25R


LEAF:
So the markets fading but my LEAF trade has somehow miraculously not only held up after nearly being stopped ( I was probably down 1.5R with a 2R stop,)  it gained that all back and somehow I'm green on the position.  Market volatility is increasing.  I decided to cut my position size for a small gain:

Entry: 33.75
Exit 1 (partial): 33.86




MAR
So this one is in a waterfall.  It started to make a comeback, I didn't see it with the ebola thing going around.  Who wants to fly these days?  If no one flies hotels suffer.

Entry: 62.72  (target 60)
Stop. 63.75



Monday, October 6, 2014

XIV successful mean version trade

I liked XIV for a bounce off the 200 MA: 
38.82 premarket:

Mae a nice little run to nearly the 50MA and began to back off. I sold @$40.86



Trade summary
Entry 38.82
Exit:  40.86
+.07 R.

Friday, October 3, 2014

Opened XIV

So that market has sold off and is due for a bounce. Premarket I entered XIV @38.82.  XIV has bounced at its 200 MA very constantly and has made V shape recoveries. This is a M/R trade that  I want to give it a shot at its 50MA perhaps it can make the type of trending action that it did in April.
Stop: close below 200 MA.