Closed: Stopped out of CRR

Not a surprise here.  My stop at 104 filled at 103.92.  It then got hit and it again traded down to 100.85 before staging a reversal. This was a reactionary trade  that I was too soon.

I should mention that CRR did put in a nice bounce, I would not surprised to see the bounce continue. The follow through on Friday's move is the time to play look for a move to 115...without me.

I should note that the bounce of 2nd test of the 100 low might have been a decent place to attempt an entry.  The risk was probably low because you would know to get out immediately if it failed.

On that theory let's look at  Thursday sell off  to  Friday's rally.

Friday.   Boot and rally. But look at that volume on the close.  That ain't joe 6 pack.

CLOSED: JCP

So I bought JCP.  I chased it  and then it fell today.  Again, a reminder not to chase.  JCP gave a good entry middle of July, which would have allowed a pick up of a 8-10% gain.

Summary:
Entry 9.70
 Stopped at 9.29
I chased.  This again is a reminder of why I don't like these types of breakouts.  I kept the loss small. .5R

VIP stopped out.

Russian Stock, breakout fail. Stopped out:

I was hopeful that it would find some legs and rally. It did not. Had I kept the stop looser I might have still been in this as it's not completely broke yet but the breakout fizzled out.  Again, kept the losses low.   The winners will come.

Summary:
Bought  $8.95
Sold:  $8.46.:  .49.  - 5.47%   -6 R.  

Market Sell off Closed AZO calls, RFMD + 25%

After a bounce yesterday, the markets opened down big on news of a Portugal bond situation and talk of the end of QE.  Pre-market every thing was very, very  red.

Preservation of capital time. 

I knew this meant AZO would pull back and would not breakout today.  As my call position depended on a breakout today or at least movement toward that direction, I knew I needed out. So I got out at the open.  I used to the increase in Vol. to get a better price and got out at .60 for a very small loss.

Likewise, I decided to get out of RFMD.  There was a bid Pre-market that I felt would be at least .10 higher than it would open so I hit it and got out at 9.47.

RFMD is a position I've had for several months and the chart shows why:

I bought at $7.47 on March 5.  and sold @ 9.47.  So I end up with a 25.8% gain on the trade.  Obviously, there was a very nice trend.  I got a little hesitant as there was a lower high.  From a fundamental side, RFMD will soon be merging with TQNT the new company will cut a lot of overlap and it will be an interesting one to watch.  That being said,  I would anticipate that there may be some "final period" issues that will be reflected in quarterly earnings and growing pains as the companies merge. I don't see this position as one that I would be able to hold to next march without a substantial risk of a pull back.  For that reason I'm outta here. 

A bit of a bounce. Stopped Out of GDXJ and some new action in Auto Parts. ORLY AZO

After taking a beating over the last two days the markets staged a rally.  It looks like my FB trade was just a day early as FB rallied hard today:

I thought 62 might act as support and it did. But I wasn't willing to move my stop to take the risk.  I guess you can't win them all.

GDXJ has shown great strength and my short taken during the congestion must be closed.  

Entry 40.76 closed 43.95. - 3.19.   I knew this was somewhat of a risky trade going into it as gold stocks are notorious for choppy actions and fake breakouts in both directions. So I positioned size accordingly. 1.5% loss here.

Today's break was on high volume, which suggests I should look for long plays in some of the miners included in the ETF.

New Positions:  In at 155.50.  A  very nice move out of congestion.  I'm playing this a smaller than normal so I have a stop at 151.90 . 

Since ORLY broke out I'm anticipating that AZO will follow. So I picked up some calls:

I picked up the July 550s calls.  This a high risk trade given the the option expo day. It either works tomorrow or I get out out because the Theta decay is going to get ugly real fast.

On options my risk and position size is set assuming a  $0.00 so I'm risking .05%R here.



What has me excited about both of these stocks is their monthly charts, A breakout on the weekly charts could produce some very big moves:

ORLY weekly (dynamic):

AZO (Dynamic )

PME: Cutting bait.

My initial research revealed that PME was  possible deep value play, trading below asset value. Subsequent research revealed that there was still too much risk in this trade and I've elected to close it before I get trapped.

My concerns include  the fact that the Roy Yu, the CFO, previously was the CFO of Lihua International, Inc. (NASDAQ: LIWA) The SEC recently suspended trading LIWA because of non-compliance with financial reporting obligations.  I don't want a CFO of a company that I would own to have previously headed a delisted company due to improper financial reporting.

In addition, PME is guaranteeing numerous loans in the name of the wife of the CEO, but admits the pleadge has no beneficial purpose to the company.

" We have entered into certain pledge agreements pledging 22 fishing vessels as collateral to secure a loan to Hong Long, a fishing company controlled by spouse of Mr. Xinrong Zhuo. The pledge has no beneficial purpose for us and we could lose our fishing vessels if Hong Long were to default on the loans, which could be detrimental for our operations."

Trade Summary:
When your reason for taking a trade is in doubt, get out. I took about $100 loss on  PME rather than stay in and hope for a profit. This is too thin and the Risk level I planned for this  trade did not account for a delisting. Given the history of executive delisting could be a legitimate risk. Given the risk that the company is taking without a benefit, I would not be surprised if the insiders leave an empty shell for the American Investors. I'll fish elsewhere.

GFS closed

I closed GFA today.
GFA is a Brazilian housing company. My reason for entering the trade was that Brazil stocks had looked strong and this was close to a breakout.  So first the EWZ, which tells the story-- a nice breakout and then failure.

GFA suffered the same fate. On the weekly chart it looked like it was making some progress but then failed to break 3.50 and sold off below 3.00. That was my stop and I honored it.

On the daily we see a failed breakout that is accelerating.

So what's the damage.  Purchase at 3.42.  Sold 1/2 @ 3.09 and the remainder today at 2.99. Total loss of 1.14 R.  No losses are fun but I keep this one small.  In that regard, I cannot complain.

In summary,  my Brazil trade failed as the Brazilian  markets sold off and most of the ADR's similarly had failed breakouts.  I might look at getting short some of these names.

CLOSED: ACI Just a lump of coal

So here's one that didn't work out. ACI really looked like it had bottoming potential. This is a 2 year chart to show this range that I was hoping would be a bottom.

  I was very optimistic when it broker over 5 It hit about 5.40 (I sold the May 5.50 calls for .24, which was the one smart thing I did on this trade. Unfortunately, I added @4.25 hoping for a bounce... didn't happen and I stuck fast to my stop and closed it at 3.97.

Analysis

So yea, I lost over $1.03 a share on this (minus dividends and premiums from the 5.50s)  Good riddance.  Would I be surprised if it bounced here?  Not really, but I'd rather honor my stop.

This trade was entered on the theory that coal couldn't get worse.  It did.  Less size might have let me stay in longer. But I think, It's best to realize that not every trade will be a winner and to take the loss.

YNDX Stopped out

Stopped out.   My stop was too tight as a result of position size. Had I taken smaller shares and a wider stop, I would still be in this trade as YNDX rallied from my stop.

Entry: 28.29
Exit 27.31
-.98
 -3.4 %

https://www.tradingview.com/e/?symbol=YNDX

MEA: closed

This one went horribly wrong.  Broke about every rule.  No stop, no trend.  Didn't take the profit on the rally back to three.    I attempted to pick a bottom, without a net (I.e. Stop) on 2k shares.  Dropped a grand in all  (More than my allowance).

DFS It doesn't pay to discover.

Markets rallied on a China Interest rate cut.  Stopped out on DFS for .90 loss.  I think the stop was probably too tight.


My profit stop in FB got hit so I took a .20 profit.  ( sort of a stupid and pointless trade)

DFS: Stopped out

DFS had been holding up decently in a bad market.  But it couldn't hold on.  The market dropped 2% today and I was stopped out at 32.   I suppose I could have sold out with a small profit over the last month and perhaps should have given the overall market conditions,  11 of the last 12 days were down.  But I was hopeful that would pass and I wanted to be in the stronger position.   All in all this was traded to plan.  Although I was stopped out the loss was small. Shit happens. 

INVN: Back In after bounce at support.

Successfully tested 14.70, where it previously found support.  I'm not betting on a V shaped recovery but I think there's a decent shot at making a charge at 16.50.  This stock can get pretty wild. 

And stopped out:  The market was brutal today,  But I had a nice gap up and got greedy.   Rode it all the way down to my stop.   In a choppy market sell the gap on a stock that has been brutalized as of late. I took a $250 loss on what I could have and  should have had a gain.

Goldman Giveth and Goldman Taketh

Goldman Sach's upgrade of LNKD gave me one of my best trades on the month.    

Today, it downgraded WFM:

I was stopped out at 82.28 for a $275 loss.  This trade had been working extremely well as I bought of the low but then Goldman Sachs down graded the stock, causing it to gap down.  It appeared to bounce at 82.26.  (yea basically I got the worst entry and the worst exit)   I wanted to bang out the stock at the open but I wasn't in front of a screen.  

Trade Summary:  Shit happens!   This had been working and moving up in an orderly manner.  I would have faulted myself if I didn't sell a portion after a big move but that didn't happen here.  I kept the stop and damage to a minimum. 

INVN, shakout

The MMs jumped right over my stop and sank the stock.  It rallied after hitting the 26 ema, which also marks the highs from the past rally.  I added another 100 at 19.67


Update:  So that didn't work well.  They sank this one and I'm out for a loss at 18.90.  loss of $258 on the position, which sucks after being up over 2 points.  

Lesson: I don't mind the loss on adding at the 26 ema. I do mind that my initial stop didn't get filled.  More attention to the type of order in fast moving stocks is necessary!

QIHU: Spread closed

I closed my position in QIHU last week for a loss of $591.10.   The loss was within my risk tolerances but for an option trade I should have adopted a smaller risk profile on this one.   I wisely hedged the position once it started to move against me.  But I probably would have been better off hedging with stock instead of shorting the 17.5 puts with a lesser amount.

This was a stock that I fell victim for the anticipated "home run" as there were numerous articles claiming this is a fraud.

Anyway the stock just went parabolic.  However, It's one to watch because there is divergence on this move and lower volume.  That being said, I'm not going to stand on the tracks of a freight train and hope it slows down.   If I decide to short it will be on the next spike following a pull back.  If it cannot push the MACD and the RSI shows a divergence then and only then will a short position look attractive.

Stopped out today.   Support failed to hold.     The problem with this trade was stock selection,  there was no way I should be trading a stock that doesn't average even 100 thousand shares a day.   

DSX: Stopped out

Stop hit at $8.96.  Traded as low as $8.80.   

Summary:
Entry
I rushed into the trade before the down move was finished and hoped for a snap back.  That didn't happen.

Exit
Stopped with a small loss just a few cents of slippage.  I could have held a wider stop with fewer shares and kept the R the same.  Or, I could have increased R beyond to at least 1 R to allow for a .70 stop.   It now looks like a reversal bar as it traded positive stopping me out.

Rules:
I had a plan and I traded it.  it didn't work this time but the damage was minimal.