Sept 14 Trade Journal

Entered GMCR 60.07 as we get bearish range expansion following uptrend..  If we get follow through tomorrow, I think this could drop to the 40s.   

USE close of 9 hourly EMA to trail

GWR: Short  - -Nice move today Short in 61.60s  -- tight stop and bulls are getting tired -- nice close on the low.

Hourly --- bearish rang expansion pierced through consolidation area then did it again this morning.

VTAE: Fishhook breakout 

Averaged into a 15.13 position as the 15 breakout held

XIV: 

added anotheto the position.  Contango is now only (-3% still backwardization but this is the VXX short is the greatest trade.   

If this were not a mean reverting instrument there is no way I would take this trade with the size I am now up to. 

August 2015

Off to a good start this month. .. 5.39% through the fist week.   Most of my trades have been on the short side. 

Big winner was GMCR short -- it fell 20 points after an earnings miss.  I loved the setup to short it and cut my size into the close so that I could take the trade through earnings.  I figured that I was was wrong, I was looking at a $5 loss 

Going into Next week, I'm holding

TUES: Took this short on the trend line break of the countertrend bounce.  This should retest the lows unless market has a snap back rally. 

UNFI: -- Broke support 

SALE: Continued weakness after earnings miss.

PZZA:

VRA:

Aug 5 --- go where the money is

This is Will Sutton

He said he robbed banks because that's where the money is.   His quote become famous. 

As much as I like trading breakouts.   I can't deny that I've been making more money on my shorts.  

ONDK short. 10.51

 This one was textbook for a short trade.  

ITEK: long.  Analysis was right.  Execution was mediocre as I raised my stop too quickly and was taken out on an intraday pull back.  The downside of being too loss averse Is that you give up upside.

Keep an eye on this one it could keep going.

GMCR: wow, just wow.  This was a amazing short as it missed earnings.

New Positions.
ZINC-- short

PBYI: Short.

Current positions.
Shorts: GFI

AMKR:

Market overview

I've traded a lot and haven't updated the journal for individual trades.  For the first time this year, I find my self entirely on the short side. But like buy strength on longs, I'm selling the weakest stocks short. 

But first some index charts

VIX: RSI - piked up support -- look for a run to the green line

Biotech:  Earlier this month, and most of this year biotech were strong.  This week my biotech trades did not hold breakouts and I was repeatedly stopped out of them. 

BIB, The index although one of the most bullish sectors got its breakout rammed back down.  If there's a positive it would be the that the volume is diminished.  This could start an avalanche and really get going to the down side.  

IWM:

TRANSPORTS:

Transports have been weak for most of this year I think the move below the RSI support line and failed rally up to 10week and RSI line is an ominous signal.

\

ENERGY:

The phrasing continuous-- volume still strong but not blow capitulation strong. 

Financials: I have no concerns yet with this sector-- It appears to be the pocket of strength sure it was down on the week but is holding the 20 day.   Bullish trades probably can still be found here. 

Individual shorts:

GMCR:

This stock is massively wounded

FWRD:

Struck hard on high volume

Should continue to drip

entry 48.64

RPD:

entry 17.08

Blowing out the bottom on the longer scale

ATI:

Closed OREX, ISNS, MPAA, TUBE, GMCR,YRCW, AMED

Lots of selling today.  524 stocks down greater than 4%.  Unfortunately, I owned several of them.  I got knocked out of a bunch of positions as stops were hit.  That's trading. So here's the damage:

OREX-- This was the first to go.  It's breakout never really got going.  This hasn't really broke down...yet. But I didn't go into this trade to wait for 4 weeks in hopes that its move would resume.  I'm perfectly fine getting out here.

Entry: 6.09
Entry 5.94
Closed 5.68

ISNS, This actually made a run after gapping down but it was not to be. It was sold off and I'm out. My mistake was selling my second lot, more than buying my third.

Entry 1: 3.08
Entry 2: 3.01
Entry 3:  4.02
Exit 1: 3.21
Exit 2: 3.04
Exit 3: 3.55

MPAA
This was a breakout trade that got slammed back down.

Entry:35.65
Exit 33.80
-.9%R

TUBE:
This was a decent trade.  I stayed committed to my plan to use the 6EMA as my stop, which meant I moved it up.  As the market sold off, TUBE was closed

Entry 15.86
Exit: $16.75
+.6R

GMCR

I closed my short out as out GMCR was down 6 days in a row. Since it did not appear this morning that we would have the selling we did this afternoon, I figured there was no sense in pushing this trade farther.  I had traded it nicely
Entry 140.72
Exit. 131.90
1.5%R

YRCW
Another Breakout slammed back down.
Entry: 24.92
Exit:  23.95

AMED:
I bought this on the B/o this morning.  I played it with a tight stop as I figured a true breakout shouldn't go red on breakout day. This one was crammed down.

Entry: 26.89
Exit: 26.26

Opened GMCR Short

I went Short GMCR today @ 142.72.  I love this as a short set --- sharp decline-- failed rally up to the 50 MA and more selling.   The 135 gap is very likely to fill and possibly even the gap at 116 as well. 

Stop @ 50MA