Monday, June 11, 2012

USO: Stop Gapped.

My stop on Friday, got jumped premarket so I took the hit.  Went down $264, which was more than I had hoped to risk but less than my allowance.    This type of thing happens when you try to pick a bottom.  And, If your stopped out, it's usually a good thing.  I would have gotten killed had I attempted to ride it out:





MEA: closed

This one went horribly wrong.  Broke about every rule.  No stop, no trend.  Didn't take the profit on the rally back to three.    I attempted to pick a bottom, without a net (I.e. Stop) on 2k shares.  Dropped a grand in all  (More than my allowance).


Thursday, June 7, 2012

New Trade: EURO

Shorting the EURO on 20k here at 12533:  The EURO made a 300 pip rally off a low, but The last bar is a fade.  I have a stop above the day's high.   And I've been drinking a 7.1% alcohol content beer, so That may explain some things.  BTW "Fat Weasel" tastes better after 1.

Closed: the following morning at 1.24584 for  $150.  Lesson: even putting on a trade after two beers can work if you are trading in the general direction of the trend with a stop in place.   This was better analysis than some stone cold sober analysis.

New trade: V

Visa looks quite a bit like discover.  But looks like it is more of the primary mover.

V rallied and then sold off.  I had an order to short yesterday, that didn't get filled.  Any way I took it out at 117.02 on 100 today as it began to fade. I have a stop at 121.  This looks like a toppy pattern and if it is this could be at least a 10 point move, within the next few weeks.

DAY 2:
I was perhaps a day early, but my stop held.  This is starting to look nice as V was faded after a strong initial move:
 The key point is what it does around 112.5.

DFS It doesn't pay to discover.

Markets rallied on a China Interest rate cut.  Stopped out on DFS for .90 loss.  I think the stop was probably too tight.


My profit stop in FB got hit so I took a .20 profit.  ( sort of a stupid and pointless trade)

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

NEW positions.

The markets rallied hard today off of news that Europe may attempt some type of bailout.  I'm not buying the butter flys and rainbow.   I used the rally to take a number of positions.


I had previously had been long DFS but got stopped out after the breakout failed.  Failed breakouts usually make great shorts and so i went short after today's rally.  I got filled on 100 shares.  I had some additional orders incase the rally went higher but I didn't get filled.  So I'll use this as a test position.

FB had a big rally this afternoon  after languishing most of the morning.   I have a position for a small move. Short 100 at 26.88
 ON MAKO I went long.  as it looks like it put in a bottom after a major gap.   Its traded higher but still close to the lows which makes a nice place to put a stop and a decent risk to reward trade.  Long 250 at 22.97
 I also went long Oil via the USO ETF.  Similar to Mako there appears to be a rally off a bottom, which  allows a tight stop.  USO has been prone to "V" shape recovers so here's hopping.


NKE: Closed +$1.48

I was stopped out of NKE at 107 today.   It went for a 1.48 gain, which is ok but I gave back 3 points of profit.  

I have mixed feelings on this one,  Getting out with some profit is the right decision and the market is attempting to rally.  I still feel this has a much bigger move down so I probably was right in attempting to give this some room.

Between this and WHR (both "winners"), I left a lot of money on the table.  My sell strategy needs work.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

WHR: swing trade

I traded a decent swing on WHR over the last day.  I bought at 56.78 off the bounce with a stop on the day's low.  I got a nice move today and move my stop up to 57.90, which got hit on an intraday pull back.  It's a shame because had I not been so aggressive on moving my stop up I could have captured  some more upside.    In all I made about  $1.10 on the trade on 200 shares.



Saturday, June 2, 2012

NKE: update

The NKE short appears to be working quite well.   There was an attempted test of resistance, which rallied to 110.92 and then a hard fall with the broader market.   NKE closed near the low on friday and took out some mild support at 106 in the process.  Last month's low held, however, if the market continues to sell off there is not a lot of support at NKE.

"Ask SLM" on Tasty Trade put up an interesting chart for NKE, which uses cycle patterns. I personally have not used cycle patterns before but I've attempted to replicate the process.   In theory, in an up trending stock the line should mark the weekly low.   On NKE the first 3 lines did mark the low to the week.  However, the last line low was breached, which as SLM explained it means that the cycles now apply to the down trend.  If the current pattern holds the downtrend should last 12 weeks.

At this point, the indicator is still too new for me to hold my breath but, It conforms with my analysis that NKE had topped, ( as evident by the failed breakout),  I wanted to be short on the next attempt because the moves is done.





Wednesday, May 23, 2012

New Trade: NKE

I shorted NKE on a limit order of 108.50.  The rallied stalled and NKE has now fallen.  It has a widening pattern which is suggestive of a top.

Monday, May 21, 2012

MEA

This one looks interesting from a fundamental perspective.  It has a book value of 4.50 and now trading at 2.95.

On the technicals it looks like a  3 year channel  we're now at the lows that were reached in 2010.    I'm in at 2.78,  I think there's a decent chance of 4 and change being reached  so this looks like a decent risk to reward trade.  It's showing MACD bullish divergence, on both the Daily and weekly.

It took out the low at 3.00 on a horrendous week but seems to have found support and rallied back to 3.00

Friday, May 18, 2012

FB

Took a shot on FB:

Bought a 100 shares at 40.02.  I could have flipped it out at at 42 at several point during the day.
It ultimately closed at 38 and changed on the first day of trading.

I have a "feeling" that the underwriters will continue to support it and that the overall market will bounce from oversold conditions.    Bloomberg reported that the underwriters stepped in to hold it over 38 because it would be an embarrassment if it traded lower.  I don't see that going away over the next week.   All eyes are on this one, and if they mishandle the ipo, Morgan Stanley and  Goldman risk losing future ipos.

Its a theory, and I don't have a large position. Obviously, because it's an IPO there is no trading history and no chart worth showing.

I may consider shorting LNKD as a spread trade.  If FB doesn't hold, LNKD sure as hell is not going to either.

Day 2, Big gap  down.  it then set up with a nice bottom at 33.50.  I bought off the break out at 34 (slippage to 34.10)   Put a nice rally to 35 before selling off.  At this point, I need to realize I'm not a day trader.  I'll bang it out 1/2 on a modest move

DAY 3, Gapped down past stopped, executed manually pre market at 32.90  for a 2.5% R loss ouch.

Thursday, May 17, 2012

DFS: Stopped out

DFS had been holding up decently in a bad market.  But it couldn't hold on.  The market dropped 2% today and I was stopped out at 32.   I suppose I could have sold out with a small profit over the last month and perhaps should have given the overall market conditions,  11 of the last 12 days were down.  But I was hopeful that would pass and I wanted to be in the stronger position.   All in all this was traded to plan.  Although I was stopped out the loss was small. Shit happens. 


Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Update

Market has been in sell off mode. There have been some decent set ups on the short side but I have been too busy with other projects to monitor the market. I'm mostly in cash other than DFS.

Monday, May 7, 2012

INVN: To catch a falling knife.

The market has been choppy lately and I thought I would take a mean reversion (a/k/a capitulation) trade with INVN after it fell 25% after revising guidance lower on earnings.   I took the position at $12.68  with a stop at 12.   On friday,  there was a blow out bottom down to $12.15 and then a quick rally up to $12.92.    On monday the world markets were significantly lower on Euro news and I became a nervous nellie and sold my stock off for  a small profit.  

TRIAGE: Had I stuck to the plan with my original stop I would have had a very nice profit.  However, there were a few things in my mind which prevented me from doing that.  First, I'd prefer to trend trades and this type of trade is dangerous in any market but even more so in this type of market where there is no continuation on any moves.  Second, I got burn the last time I tried this type of move in this stock where I could have sold for small profit and took a loss when I didn't.  Third, I feared that the world macro events would spur a global sell off. 

 Although the sellers appear to be out for the time being this chart is showing a head and shoulders and a short position can be attempted if it trades into the gap.    I have played this stock solely on the long side to date.


Sunday, April 29, 2012

Position update

I only have 1 position on right now, which is DFS.  It is pushing out of a consolidation zone.  It had a major move after the previous consolidation,  and I would like this one beak to do the same.     If it runs to a 52 high week, the momo players might come in.  But for now it's quiet.   We're still missing volume so I'll watch it closely.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

New Order: DFS

This  is starting to look interesting  It looks to have broken out of a consolidation period.   The Daily looks decent and perhaps the start of a move. 
On the Weekly it tested the 10 week MA and held.  on its run from 13- $25 the 10 MA tracked the price pretty well until entered a sideways period.

Why I close positions before earnings.

I had been short BA, and covered two trades both profitable.  With Earnings coming up.  I wanted to be out of the Market.  Here is a reminder of why:
This was a violent move that smashed through prior resistance. 

AMGN: Post Triage

4-15-12- AMGN: Stopped out
This was  a bad trade all the way the way around.  Went for -783 in violation of the  2% rule in execution. My buy stop was not high enough So I was stopped in without a breakout.  I set a stop, with stop limit. at 66.10.  Remember: stop limits are for offense, Stops are for defense.   My stop limit was gapped, so I pulled it.   It cost me an extra .60 cents causing me to violate my 2% rule.

This chart still doesn't look like a break down or a break out.  It's probably closer to a break down.  But had I taken a smaller initial position, I could have had a wider stop.



4-25-12: what might have been:

So the underlying theory was correct.  As it hit 70 today and closed near a high.   I bought too high without a real breakout  and got sucked back into the channel.   A wider stop would have worked.

Anyway,  I think I can learn from watching this.  If it continues to run.  I can adjust my entries  to a break outs, or determine whether to look for an entry on support of the channel.  A buy at 66 would be looking great right now.  Yet that's where I got stopped out.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

UPDATE:

BA: short looks like it is working well,
Ree: should be closed out on friday with option expo
GDX: is fighting for its life,  If it holds here I'm in at a low and can expect a 20 % move.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

BA: New Short

Initiated short position 100 shares at 73.99,  a big bounce after breaking the channel bottom.  I can't see this making a new high and this looks like a decent R to Reward entry.  I'm staying small shares on this looking for a retest of last weeks low.   It it fails to hold there's a decent chance that 70 falls to 68.

Monday, April 16, 2012

Cash is king

Market is pretty choppy going into earnings. I'm only holding a position of gdx and ree

Sunday, April 15, 2012

BA: Update

After a month of waiting, BA finally looks like it is going to break down.   This was a system test  position so I don't have much of a position.  If the move continues, it takes out the support from where it bounced in March and will head to 70.00.   I'm going to move up my stop here to an ITM position.  Stop now at 73.67.

Update:  So a day later BA crashes (bad pun for an Airline company?) .  This was something of a system test trade for me so I had no size on it.  I covered today.     I think today's move is too strong to hold.  It flew past the BBs so a snap back is likely.  Anyway, the broken pattern is confirmed and I would look to short on a bounce up to the EMAs

Update: And as predicted, the rally after the BB pierce.   Look to reinitiate a short position around 75. with the 76.50 being the stop.

Monday, April 9, 2012

INVN: Back In after bounce at support.

Successfully tested 14.70, where it previously found support.  I'm not betting on a V shaped recovery but I think there's a decent shot at making a charge at 16.50.  This stock can get pretty wild. 

And stopped out:  The market was brutal today,  But I had a nice gap up and got greedy.   Rode it all the way down to my stop.   In a choppy market sell the gap on a stock that has been brutalized as of late. I took a $250 loss on what I could have and  should have had a gain.

DUG: Taking profits.

I think I scared my self out of this.  Nice breakout but without the volume.  When It started to come in I sold it out.  +$65 gain.   Not much but I didn't like my entry.


Update:   I  was scared out of a winning trade with a small profit.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

DUG

I bought this today.  My buy stop wound up being the high of the day which is never fun but it closed pretty close to there.

This has just broken a down channel and the Impulse bars on both the daily and weekly are now green.

Weekly:  First green impulse

DSX: Stopped out


The specialist hit my stop this morning and then traded DSX up a .10 from that point.  Total $289 loss on the trade.  I took this loss on the entry because I bought before the breakout.  

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Stopped in: DSX, AMGN

I kept my buy stop orders too close to the market and got stopped into two positions on "noise".  I like both charts but this was poor order placement.  AMGN has this 3 month flag pattern and I'm hopefull it breaks to the upside.   Turns out 68.15 was not the trigger I hoped it would be.  It has still stayed strong in a week market.




DSX  looks like it could break out and make a nice run towards 10.   8.96 as a buy was too low.  I should have waited until a push over  9.15 or so with volume.  DSX has pulled back but it has a nice range of support in the 8.50 range.  Today was a brutal day in the market and DSX dropped over 3%.  I would hope this holds.

EWP: New Position

The Spain etf broke to the downside: 


 Stop above yesterday's high.  Using the last day rule.  A real breakout shouldn't retest.

Sunday, April 1, 2012

New Orders: DSX

Taking another shot at this buy stop above Friday's high. I like the consolidation at the 8.50 level, which I'll use for support, Friday's move had some nice volume so I'll look for a continuation, up to the 9.75 level.

Friday, March 30, 2012

INVN: Swimming with gators.

This was stupid.  I bet on a reversal of a strong down move.  I survived buying 500 at 17.80 which I traded out of for $140 gain.   The risk to reward wasn't great on this trade.  I pushed out of the entire position because I didn't want to hold it into the weekend.  

Triage:  I think I was pissed at myself for letting this turn from a profit to a loss earlier this week and I wanted my money back.   This was an impulse trade (The elder impulse system would expressly would forbid it), and I should not have taken the trade.  That being said, I made money but I cannot count this as a good trade because I broke my entry rules.  I was in for 1% R which very nearly got hit. Again,too much for this type of "falling knife" trade.



CORN: Shucks

And I closed most of my short. and then limit up today: Stopped out on the last portion for .58 gain.


I re entered the position short on 200 shares at 38.84 with a stop at the day's high.  I'm less confident in this move now after such a strong move reversal.  I'll look to take profits quick.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

CORN: Taking some Profits

With INVN and WFM fresh in my mind, I figured I needed to take some profits before another winning trade turns into a loss.  This has been crushed. I bought  300 of my 400 shares back in at  37.97 for a $678 profit.  Still holding another $264.50 of gains.  I'm moving the stop on that to $38.84, to preserve gains.


On a weekly it could fall a lot farther if it doesn't find some support soon:

Goldman Giveth and Goldman Taketh

Goldman Sach's upgrade of LNKD gave me one of my best trades on the month.    

Today, it downgraded WFM:

I was stopped out at 82.28 for a $275 loss.  This trade had been working extremely well as I bought of the low but then Goldman Sachs down graded the stock, causing it to gap down.  It appeared to bounce at 82.26.  (yea basically I got the worst entry and the worst exit)   I wanted to bang out the stock at the open but I wasn't in front of a screen.  

Trade Summary:  Shit happens!   This had been working and moving up in an orderly manner.  I would have faulted myself if I didn't sell a portion after a big move but that didn't happen here.  I kept the stop and damage to a minimum. 


Wednesday, March 28, 2012

NEW ORDER: AMGN

I'm liking this chart.   A nice flag after a trend.  I have a buy stop  at 68.10 which is just above the recent high.  I think this could make a move if it gets in action.  And I'm buying at the 26 EMA 

INVN, shakout

The MMs jumped right over my stop and sank the stock.  It rallied after hitting the 26 ema, which also marks the highs from the past rally.  I added another 100 at 19.67


Update:  So that didn't work well.  They sank this one and I'm out for a loss at 18.90.  loss of $258 on the position, which sucks after being up over 2 points.  

Lesson: I don't mind the loss on adding at the 26 ema. I do mind that my initial stop didn't get filled.  More attention to the type of order in fast moving stocks is necessary!

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

One of those days

REE moved with the other Rare earths.  Huge volume but again  it couldn't close over the 6.50.  I sold another Apr 6. put for .35, to generate some cash.  If it falls below 6, It will effectively let me purchase my short stock back at 5.65.


INVN:  As I noted yesterday, there was a good chance of it making a pull back as reflected by the doji candle and close below the open.  It pulled back today hard.  5.03%.  That's the problem with Momo stocks.  I should have considered selling into the big move.  Anyway, my stop is still in place and the 10 EMA  has held.   Over the past month that EMA has been the  floor of this stock.


WFM:
A Small pull back after a big reversal move.  No worries yet.

CORN:  Today wasn't all bad.  My Corn short, which is my largest position kept falling and closed at the low.  It took out the bottom at looks to fall to at least $38.5 before next support level.




Since CORN tracks the commodity, the chart of the actual Corn futures also closed at a low.  But is more in the range of support than the ETF.  I like that the Force and the MACD are dropping like stones.  I would have liked greater volume.

BA:  This is becoming a long term short as it won't break out to stop me out.   There is huge divergence and despite Market in Rally mode, BA has been stuck.  EMAs are flat.   Eventually, it has to go one way or the other.