Saturday, June 2, 2012

NKE: update

The NKE short appears to be working quite well.   There was an attempted test of resistance, which rallied to 110.92 and then a hard fall with the broader market.   NKE closed near the low on friday and took out some mild support at 106 in the process.  Last month's low held, however, if the market continues to sell off there is not a lot of support at NKE.

"Ask SLM" on Tasty Trade put up an interesting chart for NKE, which uses cycle patterns. I personally have not used cycle patterns before but I've attempted to replicate the process.   In theory, in an up trending stock the line should mark the weekly low.   On NKE the first 3 lines did mark the low to the week.  However, the last line low was breached, which as SLM explained it means that the cycles now apply to the down trend.  If the current pattern holds the downtrend should last 12 weeks.

At this point, the indicator is still too new for me to hold my breath but, It conforms with my analysis that NKE had topped, ( as evident by the failed breakout),  I wanted to be short on the next attempt because the moves is done.

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