Monday, April 13, 2015

April 13 and APRIL 9 TRADES

The Markets had a big push off the opening and then a drop all day.

The way market opened it looked Like I was going to have a very good day.  I had gaps in AXN (which I knew would fade but a .15 move is not my play)  My Slingshot, XON made a big push, And My IPO breakout KNRT pushed its breakout again as well.  Then the broader market selling took over.  Most of my existing positions closed were slightly up  on the day  but a few were marginally lower. 

Seeing the early action I took my first alert with SQNM. 

Nice expansion on both daily and weekly.
Breakout MACDs  and RSI not over June 14 highs but the RSI looks like it is getting to the power zone in a hurry.  I felt that this presented a relatively low risk entry her.
Entry: 4.26
Stop: 4.02

This was a speculative trade.  Chinese and low float.   I took it as the Fishhook was valid, Although the signal was decent, I didn't have a ton of confidence so I took it small -- a good decision because this faded hard. I didn't see it coming in as much as it ultimately did but I drew my battle line and got out at that point.

Entry: 6.67
Stop:  6.02

IFON had a W1 breakout last week.  I like that it retested the b.o. point and then bounced back.  Last year it had a move out of this type of setup that took it from 1.50 to $4.50 in 9 weeks.   The RSI is right at the cup of those levels and the initial breakout volume was higher so maybe ...

Entry: $2.88

I bought this one towards the close. The RSI held the 50 like it did on the last power move.  This one also takes back the weekly closing high

Most of the crowd playing this stock is looking at the 5 minute charts but the weekly puts it into perspective. This latest bounce shows the momentum in this stock and we have an all time RSI and Fast MACD high. In other words, it is setup for higher prices, but this will be a battle field.  I like the long side as the table is still tilted in the bulls favor in the bigger picture.
Friday's Trades:
I like the recent IPO trade This one had nice expansion for the breakout.  Today (Monday April 13) it rallied hard and then faded.  On this type of trade I'm going to accept that as not overtly bearish. This is thin, so I would not expect this to just go.  I want to see the 14 hold and I expect it to be tested.

Stop 13.5

Entry: 33.10
Closed: 33.44

I've been plagued by the breakout backtest. In this particular stock the initial breakout buy nearly failed and dropped pretty hard but ultimately held my stop and showed up with some strength.  The next day it did it again. Finally, on the third day it runs to about 35.30 and starts coming back in.  I decide, Hey I'm not going to go negative on this one I'll just put a stop at 33.50 and hold.  sure enough I get stopped out.

This has been a problem for me as I'm transiting from the daily momo burst trades to weekly breakouts. On the momo burst you sell the initial burst and don't let it come back. I'm seeing that on a  weekly to make the big gains you have to let that breakout test occur and hold the initial stop through week 2.

Just over the past month I've had a number of fantastic gains slip to average trades by allowing myself to get shook out on the pull back:

  • ADXS (in at 13.90, April 1, out 15.38 April 7, trading now at 20.59--
    •  actually my first entry was at 10.69 March 7 and  sold at 12.01 
  • NHTC (in 18.60,  out 19.90, 2 days later 23.73), 
  • REPH 6.4 (March  16) Out 7.42  (March 18  it hit 14.50 today).

I have a good feeling that W will be one of those types of stocks. I guess the good news is that I'm getting into the right stocks. Now Just to stay on the bull a bit longer.

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