Monday, August 11, 2014

Opened: Plug

This weekend I had researched some of the best performing stocks of this and past years. As part of my Big Gain Hunting plan.  I had intended to do a forensic analysis, press release by press release, 8k, 10k with the corresponding stock move.   One of the stocks I looked at was Plug.

I approached plug with the view that the run had been amazing and wanted to see how it had been done.  Following my research, I concluded that the run is not over:

I based that on last quarter's earnings Conference call and the related SEC filings: 

  • "Already to date in 2014, Plug Power has over $80M in bookings – double the bookings from 2013. Plug Power attributes this increased growth to the successful launch of its GenKey business. The company expects to ship over 650 GenDrive units in the second quarter."  
  • lPug Power’s full year 2014 booking target is $150 million. This year we have already almost tripled our backlog from 2013 and are more than halfway to our bookings goal for the year
  • the factory has never been this active.
  • Q1 was 165 Units so Q2 should have exponential growth.  393% 

The company's q1 performance was not remarkable, but it did reveal that Plug is quickly ramping up.   Thus, we have q2 earnings, which should show the first signs of progress on the expansion. 

q2 14 earnings

We got a bit of a preview of some of the highlights to look forward to in q2 from the q1 10K. 

Revenue in progress but not included in earnings:
  • At March 31, 2014 and December 31, 2013, the Company had unbilled amounts from product and service revenues in the amount of approximately $223,000 and $184,000, respectively, which is included in other current assets in the accompanying condensed consolidated balance sheets. At March 31, 2014 and December 31, 2013, the Company had deferred product and service revenues in the amount of $9.4 million and $9.0 million, respectively.

My Trade 
September 7 calls .41,  Will close out .15   take 1/4 @ .80  the remainder if we go parabolic. 
Reasons:  Nice compaction on  weekly chart, promising story in the works, which could surprise. 
Options were taking to lower earning risk not using front month to avoid theta decay.  


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