Position update

I only have 1 position on right now, which is DFS.  It is pushing out of a consolidation zone.  It had a major move after the previous consolidation,  and I would like this one beak to do the same.     If it runs to a 52 high week, the momo players might come in.  But for now it's quiet.   We're still missing volume so I'll watch it closely.

New Order: DFS

This  is starting to look interesting  It looks to have broken out of a consolidation period.   The Daily looks decent and perhaps the start of a move. 

On the Weekly it tested the 10 week MA and held.  on its run from 13- $25 the 10 MA tracked the price pretty well until entered a sideways period.

Why I close positions before earnings.

I had been short BA, and covered two trades both profitable.  With Earnings coming up.  I wanted to be out of the Market.  Here is a reminder of why:

This was a violent move that smashed through prior resistance. 

AMGN: Post Triage

4-15-12- AMGN: Stopped out

This was  a bad trade all the way the way around.  Went for -783 in violation of the  2% rule in execution. My buy stop was not high enough So I was stopped in without a breakout.  I set a stop, with stop limit. at 66.10.  Remember: stop limits are for offense, Stops are for defense.   My stop limit was gapped, so I pulled it.   It cost me an extra .60 cents causing me to violate my 2% rule.

This chart still doesn't look like a break down or a break out.  It's probably closer to a break down.  But had I taken a smaller initial position, I could have had a wider stop.

4-25-12: what might have been:

So the underlying theory was correct.  As it hit 70 today and closed near a high.   I bought too high without a real breakout  and got sucked back into the channel.   A wider stop would have worked.

Anyway,  I think I can learn from watching this.  If it continues to run.  I can adjust my entries  to a break outs, or determine whether to look for an entry on support of the channel.  A buy at 66 would be looking great right now.  Yet that's where I got stopped out.

UPDATE:

BA: short looks like it is working well,
Ree: should be closed out on friday with option expo
GDX: is fighting for its life,  If it holds here I'm in at a low and can expect a 20 % move.

BA: New Short

Initiated short position 100 shares at 73.99,  a big bounce after breaking the channel bottom.  I can't see this making a new high and this looks like a decent R to Reward entry.  I'm staying small shares on this looking for a retest of last weeks low.   It it fails to hold there's a decent chance that 70 falls to 68.

Cash is king

Market is pretty choppy going into earnings. I'm only holding a position of gdx and ree

BA: Update

After a month of waiting, BA finally looks like it is going to break down.   This was a system test  position so I don't have much of a position.  If the move continues, it takes out the support from where it bounced in March and will head to 70.00.   I'm going to move up my stop here to an ITM position.  Stop now at 73.67.

Update:  So a day later BA crashes (bad pun for an Airline company?) .  This was something of a system test trade for me so I had no size on it.  I covered today.     I think today's move is too strong to hold.  It flew past the BBs so a snap back is likely.  Anyway, the broken pattern is confirmed and I would look to short on a bounce up to the EMAs

Update: And as predicted, the rally after the BB pierce.   Look to reinitiate a short position around 75. with the 76.50 being the stop.

INVN: Back In after bounce at support.

Successfully tested 14.70, where it previously found support.  I'm not betting on a V shaped recovery but I think there's a decent shot at making a charge at 16.50.  This stock can get pretty wild. 

And stopped out:  The market was brutal today,  But I had a nice gap up and got greedy.   Rode it all the way down to my stop.   In a choppy market sell the gap on a stock that has been brutalized as of late. I took a $250 loss on what I could have and  should have had a gain.

DUG: Taking profits.

I think I scared my self out of this.  Nice breakout but without the volume.  When It started to come in I sold it out.  +$65 gain.   Not much but I didn't like my entry.

Update:   I  was scared out of a winning trade with a small profit.

DUG

I bought this today.  My buy stop wound up being the high of the day which is never fun but it closed pretty close to there.

This has just broken a down channel and the Impulse bars on both the daily and weekly are now green.

Weekly:  First green impulse

DSX: Stopped out

The specialist hit my stop this morning and then traded DSX up a .10 from that point.  Total $289 loss on the trade.  I took this loss on the entry because I bought before the breakout.  

Stopped in: DSX, AMGN

I kept my buy stop orders too close to the market and got stopped into two positions on "noise".  I like both charts but this was poor order placement.  AMGN has this 3 month flag pattern and I'm hopefull it breaks to the upside.   Turns out 68.15 was not the trigger I hoped it would be.  It has still stayed strong in a week market.

DSX  looks like it could break out and make a nice run towards 10.   8.96 as a buy was too low.  I should have waited until a push over  9.15 or so with volume.  DSX has pulled back but it has a nice range of support in the 8.50 range.  Today was a brutal day in the market and DSX dropped over 3%.  I would hope this holds.

EWP: New Position

The Spain etf broke to the downside: 

 Stop above yesterday's high.  Using the last day rule.  A real breakout shouldn't retest.

New Orders: DSX

Taking another shot at this buy stop above Friday's high. I like the consolidation at the 8.50 level, which I'll use for support, Friday's move had some nice volume so I'll look for a continuation, up to the 9.75 level.