MOS is one of those trades that show nice potential at points but never quite get it done. I was looking for a reversal play and it seemed to have all the elements that I look for -- a vicious down move followed by a long side ways period.
Entered 1/10/14 @ $46.64 -- Nothing special about the entry after recovering from Dec's dip MOS recovered and traded sideways.
Exit 4/11/14 @ 47.73 (+.25 dividend) With the dividend a 2.87% return.
Recap: I looked for a longer term play but there were a multiple opportunities to make a bigger profit. I had a big move within 3 days after buying. I had a small position and a wide stop so I could play a big move. In retrospect the doji should have been a sign to take profits on 1/2 the position. I would not be surprised to see Mos head to $44 based on the state of the market. At that time it may be worth getting in again if there is a long legged reversal like was seen in January.
My decision to take profits was based less on what was happening in MOS than in the market overall. I wanted to reduce exposure to the market and take a profit before it went red.