June 18.

Big IWM / BIB breakout

Bio-tech booming:

And the Index everyone thought was underperforming just broke out. hmm

Another profitable day in a profitable month.  I've done a good job of cutting losers and mediocre trades.

Closed:

LIFE

Entry: 22.43

Exit: 22.60  basically breakeven as this was just never able to get going off the support line, which is not a good sign for this one. 

LAKE:

Still making post earnings adjustments and it ran my stop.

Entry: 12.30

Exit 1: 13.00

Entry 2: 12.09

Exit: 11.56  --- Although this ends up a loss.  I kept the discipline to keep it small, which can be hard  to do when you're on a winning streak.

TROV:  This is the one I'm most disappointed in, as I thought there was a good chance this would get back to the highs after bouncing off.  Instead it re-visted the support.  However, I moved my stop up and was stopped out for a  .29 gain.

When it ran to 12.70 this morning I thought it was off to the races but instead it was a fade all day:

Entry: 11.96

Exit: 12.25

A week 2 should be positive after such a great breakout.  This week was not a good sign. 

INUV: This feels like it stalled and volume has dried up.  Sure it could still go but this is not a high conviction trade for me so I'm out:

Entry: 2.97

Exit: 3.07

New positions:
DWRE: 70.26 --- great breakout RSI at levels which launched previous monster run.

Monthly:

ZIOP: Took out the weekly

But more exciting is the monthly breakout

Entry: 11.82

REPH:
Entry:  13.25

Increased size EHIC 19.96
Size Reductions: SEDG 39.43  SSNI 13.77

June 16

Closed: FRSH

Enter 18.59

Exit 1. 20.55

Exit 2:  21.30

Exit 3:  21.47

Fantastic move off the breakout ..  but its now been up 5 days in a row.   I can use these profits to re-establish a position on a back test. 

AAOI:  This one was not ready to go yet, I got stopped as it retraced in strong tape overall. I may consider a re-entry if it pushes again. 

Entry: 19.25

Exit: 18.57

OPENED:

LAKE:

SEDG:

38.50

VIRT: Took out IPO week 2 high,  close

Range Expansion on daily:

June 12 Trades.

Another good day for momo stocks.  Although the averages suffered:

FOLD backtest and ripped:
I put in a limit order of 14.20 which was hit and the trade closed.
Entry: 12.55 (6/3)
Exit: 14.20  +13%

In addition to buying the breakout, the back test can be even more profitable and even more rapid.   Although I did not do it here, it should re-enforce my observation of the prudence of selling a burst and buying its' back test.

INUV:
The move faded to the backtest and held.  My aversion to loss stopped me out at breakeven.  Fortunately, I came to my senses and realized  that a stock that back tests and holds is very powerful and you want to be in it.   I re-bought 2.97

Summary: 
Entry: 2.83
Exit: 2.85
Entry: 2.97

MBLY:
A great thrust,  decent gains.  Decided to book the profits and wait for the back test to re-enter.
Entry: $49.47
Exit: $51.58

NLS:  
Hit the weekly breakout and couldn't push ahead.  A yellow flag and given there are so many other better plays, I decided to just close it that to wait it out. Basically a break even trade.
Entry: $21.81
Exit:  $21.93

Opened:
SEED: Fishhook breakout, I saw this was a prospect for the breakout in my Thursday scan.
Entry: 2.64

EBIX:
The front side of this breakout was one of my better trades this quarter. 31.92- $37.10   Now it has retraced to the 10 Week avg and bounced.  This is a lower Risk type of entry in a stock that is a proven winner.
Entry: 33.63

LAKE:
I took a small speculative position in this on Friday.  The RSI on a monthly has broken out and would be highest ever--well other than that  incredible surge last summer where LAKE ran to $30 in a week.

Entry: 12.30

The monthly shows that something is developing here.

ADD:
BZUN
Highest weekly close warrants adding to the position.
$12.07

Range expansion on the daily.  I like that it was able to fight off the previous pull back after the range expansion off the bottom.  This one could be a Boomer! 3.6Million shares.  That's rocket fuel. 

closed: LAKE

When I'm wrong, I'm wrong and get out.  I threw in the towel on my LAKE short and took a 1R loss, despite my belief that my short theory will ultimately prove correct. I can't take the risk. I can easily recover from a 1R loss a 10 R loss would take more work.

I knew that this was a risky trade so I put it on small.  I discounted the volume too much yesterday. That combined with the ebola story, a 4Million float and extreme volume is a potentially lethal combination.  If they announce an order or if it gets out of hand this could still run 50% or more,  small size won't save me.  No pride, no ego. I'm out

Entry: short 10.30
Exit 12.19.

Opened Lake Short. Position Trade. Short Hypothesis.

The "ebola stocks" have been running as of late  and I've participated with TKMR.  As much as I've enjoyed this type of run, it gets to a point where things start to get out of hand.  LAKE.  Lake makes a variety of protective clothing including Hazmat Suits, which can be used to protect health officials against Ebola.  So naturally it puts out a press release that says it has suits for Ebola and it becomes part of the Ebola stock sector and it's stock rockets forward. 

Today,,TKMR pulled back hard but  LAKE puts on over 13% today.  Although I'm normally hesitant to short moves like, this this is the 3rd pop and is  a sign of tiredness. I shorted at 10.30. I started small as I'll accumulate over the next few days to weeks.  I believe this retraces to 7. 

Here is what I see as the negatives:

• There is Nothing Unique.  They make Hazmat suits.  So do dozens of other companies, such as  Dupont 
• Weak financials
• Company reported weakening U.S. sales last quarter:

"Q. What happened to sales in the U.S., it sounds like that was disappointing?
Christopher J. Ryan - President and CEOThey were a little disappointing on -- there were two -- three divisions that were up and two divisions that were down. The two divisions that were down were down more than the three divisions that were up." 

• Focus of management   At the q2 CC. The CEO was discussing  about Yahoo message board posters 

• "we have had a poster on the Yahoo message board, which has generated several inquiries from investors. Let me say this poster has long ago given up any pretense of being a concerned investor and is clearly a small group of former employees, who were former for good reason."

When a CEO of a company is reviewing the message boards on his company and then commenting about them during conference calls, it is typically not a good sign.  Perhaps, their efforts would be better spent trying to revive their sales instead of browsing their message boards.

• Widespread false belief of government award
•  Many people on stocktwits and twitter have stated that LAKE has a confirmed order for 160,000 suits.    Nope. 
•  The state department is seeking bids for hazmat suits but there has been no award and certainly no award to LAKE.  Lake mention the bid in a press release and many assumed that they were awarded the contract. 
• In the company's own words:

"the  materiality of this incremental demand is yet to be determined but rest assured that we have the appropriately qualified and specified suits and the manufacturing capacity to supply these garments."

 Great they have the suits, the question is and always was how many will be bought. 

•  No record of successful sales to U.S. Government
• Government contracts are  a matter of public record.  
•  LAKE's government contracts to date have totaled: $21,370 in lifetime contracts.   Wow!  That's worth a 50% increase in a week. 

• Biggest Shareholders sold out everything. 
• Arenal Capital sold out everything they had with a sale of over 300K shares at 7.66

Outrageous hype with leaders beginning to fail.  TKMR down from 30 to 22. 

Positives: 

Ebola has hype and the story could get hotter  before it flames out.

Tiny float. (a double edge sword of course)

Minimal Dilution to date

5,358,509 shares as of July 2014

5,360,681 shares

SUMMARY

I've seen this scenario play out dozens of times. This will drop back to 5 or lower.  There are too many negatives.  The question is now only a matter of timing.