Closed GNRC for a 5+ point move on the short side. Average $ 57.29
Reasons for entering the trade:
The company makes generators and had what I felt would be inflated earnings due to adverse weather. As the weather normalized, I expected earnings would normalize. Sure enough 1st quarter they missed on revenue.
Trade Assessment:
This was not an easy one. I used a stage entry, but probably entered too early 56is. on the first of the position. I allowed 2 R risk and when it dropped back under 60 I added @ 59 range. My risk limit was nearly hit in March but fortunately it sold off.
Exit: Why did I close the trade? Knowing when to get out on a profitable trade is the thing I find most difficult. For a trade like my BAC trade, I had a long trend that could use a trend line as a stop. That's not present on a trade like this yet. So after the first drop, I forced my self to stay in as it rallied back up to 55. What I did not like, was seeing it reverse yesterday after hitting the 200MA. It was acting much stronger than the broader market, so do I take the profits or the chance that the momentum fades and moving average support fails to hold?
Ultimately, I elected to take the profits. I considered phasing out partially but I elected to put the money into other opportunities. If it continues to rally, 54 range, it might be worth trying to reinitiated a 1/3 position.
Showing posts with label GNRC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GNRC. Show all posts
Friday, May 16, 2014
Friday, May 9, 2014
GNRC: Unraveling of the Sandy Premium
I've been short GNRC (avg. $57.29) on the premise that the generator company's earnings are temporarily inflated due to the horrible weather of the last year including Hurricane Sandy. This was an IBD top momentum stock and had not been easy to hold 1st qtr. Although it didn't push much higher it stayed strong... until first quarter earnings, which missed revenue. GNRC has pretty much acknowledged my theory to be correct and the stock falls. I believe that there is more down side to go. That being said, the gap is now closed and the 200MA might provide support. I may consider closing a portion of the position.
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