Trade Journal, Thursday TWTR, ZIOP, MA, BOX, CDXS, ARRY, TASR

I was traveling so I did not get my Thursday or Friday updates posted.  I added a few positions and closed a few, including AAPL, on which I made well over 100% profits on my calls.

Thursday Trades:
(Friday bars are shown)

TWTR Add: 48.19
(earlier entry, 46.40)  This trade is going proceeding exactly as planned.  Thursday was a "shakeout day" as it took it up and then down $1.00.  AAPL did this as well before proceeding higher.  After seeing the rejection of the downside move again, I added to my holdings.

ZIOP:
My stop was hit at I was out of this at 9.06.  This one has gone volatile.  Unfortunately for me this rallied up 10% from where I was stopped and I missed the run.

Entry 9.55
Exit. 9.06

MA:

MA gor a very nice burst out of consolidation which breaks it out of a wedge.  I bought the March 88calls @ 1.71.    MA was showing some power on a weekly chart as well,  I'm looking for a multi week move to $92-$95.

Weekly:

BOX,
Out of the last 25% of my position as Box faded down to 20.08.
Entry: 19.33
Exit 1: 20.05 (50%
Exit 2. 20.62 (25%)
Exit. 3.  20.08

(Note: BOX is currently consolidating and could present an excellent momo burst setup over the next couple of sessions. )

CDXS:
CDXS is a biocatalyst  company that I've followed since their deal with GSK.   It is still a relatively unknown company but with heavy insider buying.  It recently has begun a breakout.  It has pulled back to where I would expect it to so I bought at  $3.43.

PFNX is recently surging  (7 -13.50 in the last few sessions) which should cause traders to look at other plays.  CDXS is well-positioned has top tier partners..   Stop on the position at 3.

ARRY:
I sold out of this one as it hasn't been able to get going to the upside.  A couple gap fades makes me hesitant.  I'd rather manage risk than wait for the b/o or b/d.

 TASR:
TASR gets in on the action a decent breakout from consolidation but TASR has been prone to some false moves so this is a small position that I'll look to get my stop into the money.

Entry: 27.11.

Closed Winners ISIS, NOAH, CDXS, Losers ARNA, ODP

The market is not feeling the way it should with the expected V shaped recovery fading.  I decided to  close a number of positions  and play defense should more broad selling be in order. 

ISIS:

Caught a nice Breakout, but did not like the 2nd day fade. So I'm out.

Entry: 68.76 

Exit: 72.92 

+$4.16. 

CDXS:
I hit another nice breakout here with CDXS running all the way to 3.29.
Entry 2.93
Exit. 3.22
+.29
9.89%

NOAH:
This one had a lot of potential, but I wind up with mediocre profits as the the bounce on  Thursday was rejected forcefully.

Entry: 19.45
Exit 1:  21.45
Exit 2: 20.46

The weekly Chart looks like it is make or break time. If it starts to bounce of the 10 Week. I should look to re-enter.  But I want to see that test first.

And Loses are part of the game as long as they are small, I'm fine.

ARNA was a Fishhook set up hat I jumped instead of waiting for the trigger and I paid the price:

Entry: 5.93
Exit: 5.58


ODP:
I entered as I thought ODP would find a bottom and then resume.  Instead I got a late day fade, and then follow through to the downside. Stopped out
Entry: 8.50.
Exit.  8.10

Opened CDXS, CARA, CLNT

Beautiful breakout from this base. Absent a 5 minute surge where people mistakenly thought CDXS was an Ebola play this is the highest this has traded.  It it is now doing so on its own merit.

Entry: 2.93

CARA:
Bought the quiet I like what I see here.

Entry: 10.77

CLNT:
Not crazy about the fade but given today's broader market tape, I'll look past it.  I love the volume surge here on news that within the last month CLNT has obtained over $20 Million in deals... not bad for a stock with a $13 mill market cap.

Closed CDXS 26% gain.

CDXS was the first stock I bought as part of my Big Gain Hunting plan.  I sold because (1) have big gains (2) own a bunch of stock and (3) the  volume has vanished meaning I'm holding a big bunch of stock that I cannot liquidated as easily as I might want if the market tuns south. For that reason I sold. I  got filled between 2.70 and 2.67.  Entry at $2.13 so over 25% in a month.  

Not bad, but not quite the 100% + gains I had hoped for. To get those type of gains I'll need to learn how to sit tight and not be shaken out by concerns over the general market.  

Position summary: LRAD, HCLP, HPJ, CDXS, VHI, NOK,

Still a lot of bullish action in this market.

HPJ: Decent move today as it kept about half of the move

HCLP: 10Week Ma holds puts in a bullish reversal on the day.   EMES and SLCA are really pushing.  HCLP should follow.  A nice start on the week.

LRAD: pulled back on low volume.  Tomorrow will be telling. Will it resume the move or pull back?

EJ: Still in the "noise phase" after the initial breakout was thwarted.  So was the follow through on the selling.  I'm still bullish on in.

VHI had every reason to pull back but it pushed ahead. I'll stay in for now.

NOK: Just noise.  No reason to sell for me.  OR to buy if you are not in.

Partial closes: HPJ, VHI

I had full positions on over the last week and it paid off handsomely today with several large % moves. LRAD 8.88%, CDXS 3.35%, HPJ, 7.06%

Since I hit my margin pretty heavy last week and was rewarded there is no sense in tempting fate.  I decided to trim some positions a bit.

VHI: It's forward progress has stalled volume dropped.  Still, I was encouraged that VHI did not give its recent gains back had it moved in that direction I would have sold my entire position.  Instead, I sold 25% off at $7.79 and I am now holding 1/2 of the original position.

HPJ:
Great move today. But because it is susceptible to a disappearing bid and quick drops, I didn't want to be holding the size I was holding when it drops.  Sold off 20% AT 5.51.  Overall HPJ is still looking very healthy and I anticipate there will be some continuation of this move.

Week in Review, position summary

This week was very good for the bottom line.

Nok: +.43 on the week. I've owned this before the MSFT buyout and have over 100% gains.  Just when I think its done and I should sell it for a better opportunity it keeps going. This chart would look even better when you consider the .51 special dividend--putting the stock at the equivalent of $8.69.

 CDXS

I have high hopes for this one as a turn around play. The GSK deal set this in motion.  I was very pleased to see a 60,000 share insider buy this week (higher than what I paid). Its nice to see it trend up following the quiet period basically tracking the 10MA.

LRAD: Great earnings = big move I initiated a position as it pulled back 10%.  I looks to have found a base here. An insider buy was announced today.  I plan on adding as well.

HIMX:  I feel like I have a cyrstal ball on this one. I initiated the position on Tuesday and predicted this would get a kick once its 10MA catches the price.  TA DA!

HCLP: It held the 10 Week MA as it has all year.  I'm up slightly in this position but I believe a bounce is imminent as SLCA and EMES have continued their moves.  

EJ:

opened today.  Cup and a handle breakout:

HPJ: Another pick up Today. Closed about even after pulling back from its run. As long as it holds the gap, I'm bullish.

VHI: very pleased with the move out of consolidation. 

CDXS: Big Gain Hunting.

CDXS is a stock I've been tracking since its announcement that it had signed a significant deal with GSK in which in anticipates receiving 11 million this year.

This news caused the highest trading volume in this stock ever.   I had previously traded this move. Buying the gap high but fortunately selling even higher.  In fact, I sold the high point on the gap $2.65, clap, clap yeah.  

Anyway,  I  kept it on my watch list and have continued to watched the action.  The gap has held and It appears to be basing for the next move:

 I've begun accumulating. I have taken my initial position @ $2.13 with hopes of picking up more.  My pull back orders have not yet been hit... again a good sign.

So why do I like CDXS for a big move?

• Neglected stock with a major move.
• Insider Buying
• Game changing new product
• Huge potential market.

But first some context. In Q3, 2013 CDXS was in a tail spin.   Quarterly sales dropped 95% as it exited the biofuels market.  The company then engaged in a turn-around plan beginning to focus their efforts on pharmaceutical sales and it began cost cutting  the unnecessary divisions. CDXS summed up 2013 in SEC filings (DEF14A): "Our company and executives faced significant challges in 2013 as the company repositioned itself strategically." 

In Q4, 2014 the Company refocuses its attention and sales efforts to pharmaceutical companies.  During their CC, they noted that the potential market is huge :

"We estimate that over 30% of all the world’s small molecule drugs would be produced at lower cost were they to be built deploying biocatalysts that we can engineer for them." 

But after Q3 CDXS had been a forgotten company. Indeed no analysts were even present at the CC.
The  Q1 Conference Call was focused on turn around  "After a dynamic transformative year now behind us, we are driving the company full speed ahead and fully focused on the exceptional opportunities that lay ahead for us in biocatalysis."  In other words,  after a shitty year things are going to get better. 

• "2014 is shaping up to be a breakout year for Codexis." [note plug's ceo used similar langaguebefore its stock shot up 100%]
• We are going to accomplish that through driving topline growth at continued healthy gross margin mix, effecting responsible cost reductions, and preserving our balance sheet. Revenues and gross profits for the first quarter of 2014 were in line with our expectations.
•  current quarter, a top-10 pharmaceutical company has committed to purchase a drug intermediate from Codexis manufactured by AMRI, using Codexis' biocatalyst technology. This order is scheduled to be delivered in 2015, with a small portion of the order to be completed and recognized later this year.
• Regarding our business with the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies, we now have master service agreements singed with seven of the top 10, and 10 of the top 20 pharma companies.
  
  While I appreciate the optimism, it will not make you money.  At this point, there is still not much in the way of revenues and the anaylysts that showed up did not seem too interested.  Only a few questions.

 Then,  last month, CDXS announced a new multi-year with GSK.  They even felt it was a big enough deal to call a conference call just to answer questions regarding the deal.  Last week, they announced Q2 earnings, which were not great.  Of course, the GSK deal would not be reflected in those numbers.  The tone at the recent conference call, however was much different:

• It is a very exciting time here at Codexis and, as promised, you are seeing the key deliverables for the breakout year of 2014 fall in place.
• The combination of these positive developments, along with our proven cost-controlled discipline and prudence, is enabling us to today substantially improve our financial guidance for fiscal year 2014.Specifically, we now expect to generate a positive cash flow in 2014, a major financial milestone for the company and one to be delivered well ahead of any prior expectations. We’re very pleased to review each of these positive developments in today’s call with you.
• But really, what gets us excited every day is doing things that were previously not possible working with our customers like Merck and GSK to create new enzymes that can solve important problems like the clean manufacture of a new drug or a protein therapeutic that can, itself, treat a disease

CDES also discussed that The CodeEvolver license, like we just executed with GSK, is a natural alternative for us to present to customers equally convinced as we are on the wider prospects for applying biocatalyst or protein engineering more generally. 

In addition to GSK, they mentioned that they  executed an MSA with a second major customer in the wider fine chemicals arena outside of pharmaceuticals. Apparently there is a Non-disclosure Agreement so the customer identity cannot yet be identified.

Negatives? 

CDXS technology had been licensed for a Hepatitis C Drug which is decreasing in use

• The decrease in product revenue was primarily due to the expected loss of our biocatalyst and intermediate sales to customers in the hepatitis C drug marketplace as a result of both unfavorable market pricing and newer products entering the market along with a one-time enzyme inventory sale of $2.1 million to Arch Pharmalabs Limited recorded in the first quarter of 2013.
• Product revenues were relatively modest in the quarter and the products that we made sales on this quarter were generally slightly lower margin mix, not much but slightly lower margin mix than they have been in recent prior quarters.

CodeEvolver Game Changer?

In my opinion, CDXS contract with GSK for codeEvolver merits a position in this company at these levels as it supports the turn around theory. 

• We are eligible to receive up to $25.0 million over approximately the next two years, $6.0 million of which was paid upfront in July 2014 after executing the License Agreement and an additional $19 million subject to satisfactory completion of technology transfer milestones. We also have the potential to receive numerous additional milestone payments that range from $5.75 million to $38.5 million per project based on GSK's successful application of the licensed technology.
  
  The have already received the first payment and will get the second shortly.  This is will be recorded as cash on the Financial reports rather than revenues. 
  
  Another deal along the lines of GSK could do wonders for this stock.  However, CDXS mention at the CC that these deals are very complicated and take a long time to negotioated.  They thought only 1 or 2 a year were feasable. 
  
  CDXS appears to have made some inroads on its other product lines as well.  
  
  They have master service agreements "MS"A with 8 of the top 10 pharmaceutical and 11 out of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies 
  
  The analysts were impressed:

Well's Fargo Analyst: "It really sounds like a wonderful program that you’re entering into and I’m very excited by what looks like a golden age for you guys. Congratulations."

I would like to see more to see more revenue on the balance sheet and trading trading volume.  I do not yet feel that this stock is  a candidate to go parabolic. That being said the turn around is in effect, it looks like its working and I see this moving to the $3 - $4.50 range since it was coming from a level where it had been completley written off. 

Potential Triggers:  New Licensing agreement, Analysts upgrade, or improved earnings

STOP: 1.80.   .375 R.

CDXS Early bird gets the worm. RJET goes down, I get out.

CDXS was all the rage today.  I watched the volume come in from just a few thousand share pre-market.  (this averages 30k) over 5.3 mill traded today.   I bought at 2.30 right before the AM pre-market CC.  It traded down as low 2.15 shortly before CC began.  But gradually traded up.  I put a limit sell order at 2.65 and went to take a shower.   My order was hit and I was out for a .35 gain.  Turns out my sale was as the HOD Woot!  +.35 16% gain. 

If only I stopped there.  But decided to get cute. Bought again at 2.05 hoping 2.00 would hold and make another run to 2.25. Nope.  took the loss at 1.97.  so only .27 on the day or 11%.  +.5R.  

Take aways:

I'm not a day trader.  

The first trade my profit target was hit, and I'm fine with that profit.  The second, I tried to get too cute.   That being said, I limited my loss quickly and get out with a gain on the day. 

•  The CC was interesting as CDXS insinuated that the new deal was not part of Q2 earnings, which would be announced during August. The company inferred that it would raise guidance during the earnings CC.  Point being this is one to keep watching.
• 
  
• CDXS also said it was talking to other companies about similar deals.  However, it did not believe more than 1 or 2 a year was feasible given the size of the deals and the complexities.
• Big firm analysts asked questions Wells fargo and I believe Fidelity  watch for upgrades.

RJET:
Woke up to ews of a BOA and Merrill Downgrades.  I felt confident that the downgrades would ensure that the momentum it had built up would stop. Thus, I saw little reason to remain in this stock.

I decided to sell shortly after the open as my reason for the trade looked in doubt rather than wait for the stop to be hit.  I have seen a few of the Airlines fail breakouts reverse  and then break to the downside, I  wanted to avoid that result.

Entry: 11.08
Exit: 10.65
Loss. - 4.8%  .4 R.

Summary: I felt okay about my entry.  I missed a chance to exit at least a portion of the position when it got to 11.50  (too slow to log in) and it drifted down to breakout level.  That's not atypical so I did not exit hoping to see a delayed move.  Instead I got a downgrade and decided to manage my risk by exiting the trade.  Looking at the close it actually held up pretty well as the 10.50 acted as support.  Next few days will determine which way it decides to go.